Election Result Predictions

Lightspeed · 13th September 2005, 10:13

Here are my current predicitions:

Labour and National will be fairly close, around 40% each, with Labour on top.
Greens will be the only other party to make the 5% threshold.
Progressive, United Future and Maori will get in based on electoral votes.
Act, NZFirst will be out.

Labour will make a coalition with Greens and Progressive. Opposition will consist of National, United Future and Maori. However I suspect both United Future and Maori would be relatively supportive of the Labour led government.

Waldo · 13th September 2005, 10:16

thats doesnt really seem like a prediction to me, more like a horoscope with broad possibilities.....

'around 40%' pfft

Macca@Work · 13th September 2005, 10:17

to be honest..things are so tight with the parties I don't think anyone would be able to predict the outcome with any certainty.

juandem@rco · 13th September 2005, 10:19

Cant wait for the final results!

Biggus · 13th September 2005, 10:20

Had a wee chuckls at this.

^BITES^ · 13th September 2005, 10:21

haahh thats good

Reet · 13th September 2005, 10:32

Quote:

Originally posted by Lightspeed
Opposition will consist of National, United Future and Maori. However I suspect both United Future and Maori would be relatively supportive of the Labour led government.

Have I missed something? Why would the Maori Party side with National?

Lightspeed · 13th September 2005, 10:35

Quote:

Originally posted by Waldo
thats doesnt really seem like a prediction to me, more like a horoscope with broad possibilities.....

'around 40%' pfft

It's not particularly relavent. Ignore the percentages and read: Labour on top supported by Progressive and Greens, United Future and Maori in, NZFirst and ACT out. National back to twiddling its thumbs.

Reet, yes, you have missed something. The Opposition are the parties that are in parliment, but not Government.

xor · 13th September 2005, 10:40

Quote:

Originally posted by Lightspeed
Here are my current predicitions:
Act, NZFirst will be out.

Labour will make a coalition with Greens and Progressive. Opposition will consist of National, United Future and Maori. However I suspect both United Future and Maori would be relatively supportive of the Labour led government.

What if Winston wins Tauranga?
And perhaps Rodney could win Epsom (highly unlikely)? then they can bring in their 2-5% party vote in as well can't they?

Maori won't go into a coalition with National because National want to get rid of the Maori seats...

Peter Dunne will support the Party with the most votes...

I'm going for CHP, GO CAPILL!

Baal · 13th September 2005, 10:44

I'm voting for Arnold.

StN · 13th September 2005, 10:58

Quote:

Originally posted by Baal
I'm voting for Arnold.

I'm still tossing up between Larry Flynt, Gary Coleman, and Mary Carey...

Lightspeed · 13th September 2005, 11:26

Quote:

Originally posted by xor
What if Winston wins Tauranga?
And perhaps Rodney could win Epsom (highly unlikely)? then they can bring in their 2-5% party vote in as well can't they?

Maori won't go into a coalition with National because National want to get rid of the Maori seats...

Peter Dunne will support the Party with the most votes...

I'm going for CHP, GO CAPILL!

Although it will be close, I don't think Winston will win Tauranga. Nor will Rodney win Epsom.

Being part of the Opposition does not mean you're in coalition with the other parties in the Opposition, it just means that you're in parliment but not in Government. At least that's how I understand it to work.

I don't think Labour will need Peter Dunne.

cEvin · 13th September 2005, 11:28

of course winston and rodney will win their seats, i'll put $5 on it :)

Sgt Seb · 13th September 2005, 15:24

I'm going to say National wins the most vote, Green's don't cross the threshold, and Labour gets about 38%. So National wins and can govern with UF.

Basically my worst nightmare.

Hedging my bets. That way if it happens, at least I can say I was right :/

IM STILL NOT OVER THE FACT THAT BUSH WON AHSDLFKJDS@#@

blynk · 13th September 2005, 16:46

Quote:

Originally posted by Sgt Seb
IM STILL NOT OVER THE FACT THAT BUSH WON AHSDLFKJDS@#@

And the people of New Orleans are regreting it now.

ipee · 13th September 2005, 16:57

The masochist in me sort of wants National to win because I'm pretty curious to see how Maori react to Brash's anti-Maori policies.

Will we see mass protests which lead to disruption of essential services?
Will the police have to be called in to forcefully break up these gatherings? ie. 81' Springbok tour.
Will this lead to an increase in white-supremists groups due to a decreasing tolerance to Maori tactics?
How will this civil unrest affect tourism and the economy?

Just a few interesting questions that could be answered in the next year or so if National take power.

Ashley · 13th September 2005, 17:09

When does the voting end?

Evilmonkey · 13th September 2005, 17:14

Quote:

Originally posted by Sgt Seb
I'm going to say National wins the most vote, Green's don't cross the threshold, and Labour gets about 38%. So National wins and can govern with UF.

Basically my worst nightmare.

Hedging my bets. That way if it happens, at least I can say I was right :/

IM STILL NOT OVER THE FACT THAT BUSH WON AHSDLFKJDS@#@

Your worst nightmare? Big deal who wins. Fuck all will matter.

xpedition · 13th September 2005, 17:25

TAB should allow bets on it

TD · 13th September 2005, 17:52

My prediction:

National will do well
Labour will do well
Greens will make it in
NZ First will just make it in
United will get a few MPs
Maori will get a few MPs
Anderton gets in
ACT crashes and burns

Labour/Green/United/Anderton/Mole people coalition.

CCS · 13th September 2005, 18:31

Quote:

Originally posted by Ashley
When does the voting end?

7pm.

TU[NZ] · 13th September 2005, 18:34

Quote:

Originally posted by Biggus
Had a wee chuckls at this.

haha nice1

JERI · 13th September 2005, 18:44

I'm betting labour.

Kanz · 13th September 2005, 18:51

nats can't win. labour must lose.

labour easy.

put my house on it.

but im voting nats

just hope winston and rodney survive..

Helious · 13th September 2005, 19:00

Labour will win.

Saladin · 13th September 2005, 19:25

National will get more votes thna labour, but labour will have enough to govern with the Greens and Jim.

Winston to lose Tauranga, and NZ First sink below the 5% threshholod.
Rodney to lose Epsom.

Don Brash will then of course realise that letting either of the above candidates win their electorate seat would have adjusted the balance enough to give him a majority. Helen Clark's official comment will be "pwned n00b!".

crocos · 13th September 2005, 19:42

Quote:

Originally posted by crocos from this page
An intresting piece of economic observation...

Quote:

In June 2005, we find all three cycles peaking. (Go back to Graph 1.) So, unless the next government really makes a botch of its economic policies, whoever wins this election [Referring to the 2002 elections] (almost certainly Labour) will also win the next one (much as National won in 1963). 2008 may be tough though.

From here.

I've seen nothing as yet to contradict that. However I think I won't be voting Labour.

fidgit · 13th September 2005, 19:49

Labour and the Greens would have had enough*, but the Maori party taking all but one of the Maori seats, but only 2% of the Party vote will lead to an overhang of 5 seats - meaning the L+G coalition alone wont be enough.

Cue agonising weeks of waiting to see who can convince the Maori party that they should side with them - Brash will make boldfaced lies about how he was misinterpreted before the election, Clark will try to block anyone from mentioning the foreshore. The election will become 'Which major party will offer more to appease the Maori party's agenda' than any representation of the will of the people. A minor Labour politician will go and do something ridiculous and offended someone from the Maori party while he's being welcomed onto a marae, and National will swoop in to take the win, thus damning us to years of misery and torment.

Hide won't get back in. Bizarrely, we'll see more of him in the news once he isn't an MP than now. He will continue to contribute nothing but negative distractions. Later, he will attempt to form a coalition with the CHP. They'll still not break 5% in the next election. He will be replaced as leader of ACT, which, without Hide and Prebble, will become a withered shell of a party, ultimately breaking up in 2010.

Nandor will still promote an anti-prohibition on marijuana stance, but tragically will lose his dreds to a bonfire one New Years Eve up the coast. He will subsequently lose the Youth Vote. The Greens wont break 5% again.

Helen will remain as the leader of Labour-in-Opposition until 2008, when Michael Cullen will suffer a heart attack. Without her staunchest supporter, the tide of fate will swing against our second Woman Prime Minister, who will be replaced by an up and coming young Mike Appleby. Hide will end up hospitalised for exhaustion, following his inhuman efforts to remind us that Appleby led the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.

* plus Pete and Jim, but not Winnie, who will be ignored as soon as it's apparent that it doesn't matter wether or not he's in the Govt, since that one seat wouldn't have made the difference and either party will still need the Maori Party.

Lightspeed · 13th September 2005, 20:38

Quote:

Originally posted by xpedition
TAB should allow bets on it

I think they ( or some other betting agency ) do.

Kanz · 13th September 2005, 20:56

centrebet

Cheeps · 13th September 2005, 21:04

if national wins im gonna go overseas for a bit

most likely oz.

BloodDonor · 13th September 2005, 21:32

if national wins, were fuct

if labour wins, were fuct, but itll take about 50 years to notice so who cares

if another party wins... who are we kidding

A Corpse · 13th September 2005, 22:24

I really hope Winny loses Tauranga. I think NZ politics (and NZ as an extension of that) will be so much better off without his shitstirring and posturing.

Russian · 14th September 2005, 00:02

THREEE MORHHHHEEE YEEEEAHRS!

BathTub · 14th September 2005, 02:08

Hmm what I would like is Labour to get more seats than National, and the Greens to get in for a Labour/Green coalition. I think Act has a good chance of getting nothing, United Future back to 1 or 2 seats at most. I would be surprised (but happy) if Winston didn't win Tauranga and NZ First didn't meet the 5% threshold, but I suspect he will get one or the other (or both).

MadMax · 14th September 2005, 02:12

Quote:

Originally posted by Cheeps
if national wins im gonna go overseas for a bit
most likely oz.

curses · 14th September 2005, 02:14

Quote:

Originally posted by A Corpse
I really hope Winny loses Tauranga. I think NZ politics (and NZ as an extension of that) will be so much better off without his shitstirring and posturing.

I don't like Winston and i don't like the shit he stirs up but he knows the game, he knows his politics and he does it well

If he were to go there wouldn't be anyone else to stir up shit, now that Prebble's gone.

Rince · 14th September 2005, 07:47

Quote:

Originally posted by A Corpse
I really hope Winny loses Tauranga. I think NZ politics (and NZ as an extension of that) will be so much better off without his shitstirring and posturing.

yup....
I'd move to tauranga in a second if I thought it'd come down to a single vote......

Message to to Tauranga: Vote against him you grey haired old pricks!

Rince · 14th September 2005, 07:49

Quote:

Originally posted by curses
I don't like Winston and i don't like the shit he stirs up but he knows the game, he knows his politics and he does it well

If he were to go there wouldn't be anyone else to stir up shit, now that Prebble's gone.

you're fucking kidding me...

You're comparing that slimey toad with "Mad Dog" Prebble?

Peters is bad for NZ Politics, he's like the rotten apple that soon infects the rest of the barrel.

curses · 14th September 2005, 12:13

Quote:

Originally posted by Rince
you're fucking kidding me...

You're comparing that slimey toad with "Mad Dog" Prebble?

Peters is bad for NZ Politics, he's like the rotten apple that soon infects the rest of the barrel.

Yeah I was.

They both play the same role in parliament from my point of view. If you think I'm out of line would you care to educate me?

13th September 2005, 10:13	#1
Lightspeed	Election Result Predictions Here are my current predicitions: Labour and National will be fairly close, around 40% each, with Labour on top. Greens will be the only other party to make the 5% threshold. Progressive, United Future and Maori will get in based on electoral votes. Act, NZFirst will be out. Labour will make a coalition with Greens and Progressive. Opposition will consist of National, United Future and Maori. However I suspect both United Future and Maori would be relatively supportive of the Labour led government. __________________ Stay shook. No sook.

13th September 2005, 10:16	#2
Waldo Pornstar	thats doesnt really seem like a prediction to me, more like a horoscope with broad possibilities..... 'around 40%' pfft

13th September 2005, 10:17	#3
Macca@Work	to be honest..things are so tight with the parties I don't think anyone would be able to predict the outcome with any certainty.

13th September 2005, 10:19	#4
juandem@rco	Cant wait for the final results!

13th September 2005, 10:20	#5
Biggus Beaner!	Had a wee chuckls at this.

13th September 2005, 11:28	#13
cEvin Love In Vein	of course winston and rodney will win their seats, i'll put $5 on it :)

13th September 2005, 15:24	#14
Sgt Seb Up Unt At Dem!	I'm going to say National wins the most vote, Green's don't cross the threshold, and Labour gets about 38%. So National wins and can govern with UF. Basically my worst nightmare. Hedging my bets. That way if it happens, at least I can say I was right :/ IM STILL NOT OVER THE FACT THAT BUSH WON AHSDLFKJDS@#@

13th September 2005, 16:57	#16
ipee	The masochist in me sort of wants National to win because I'm pretty curious to see how Maori react to Brash's anti-Maori policies. Will we see mass protests which lead to disruption of essential services? Will the police have to be called in to forcefully break up these gatherings? ie. 81' Springbok tour. Will this lead to an increase in white-supremists groups due to a decreasing tolerance to Maori tactics? How will this civil unrest affect tourism and the economy? Just a few interesting questions that could be answered in the next year or so if National take power.

13th September 2005, 17:09	#17
Ashley Fuck up Ashley	When does the voting end?

13th September 2005, 17:25	#19
xpedition	TAB should allow bets on it Last edited by xpedition : 13th September 2005 at 17:36.

13th September 2005, 17:52	#20
TD Anas Latrina	My prediction: National will do well Labour will do well Greens will make it in NZ First will just make it in United will get a few MPs Maori will get a few MPs Anderton gets in ACT crashes and burns Labour/Green/United/Anderton/Mole people coalition.

13th September 2005, 18:51	#24
Kanz	nats can't win. labour must lose. labour easy. put my house on it. but im voting nats just hope winston and rodney survive.. Last edited by Kanz : 13th September 2005 at 18:53.

13th September 2005, 19:25	#26
Saladin Nothing to See Here!	National will get more votes thna labour, but labour will have enough to govern with the Greens and Jim. Winston to lose Tauranga, and NZ First sink below the 5% threshholod. Rodney to lose Epsom. Don Brash will then of course realise that letting either of the above candidates win their electorate seat would have adjusted the balance enough to give him a majority. Helen Clark's official comment will be "pwned n00b!".

13th September 2005, 19:49	#28
fidgit Always itchy	Labour and the Greens would have had enough, but the Maori party taking all but one of the Maori seats, but only 2% of the Party vote will lead to an overhang of 5 seats - meaning the L+G coalition alone wont be enough. Cue agonising weeks of waiting to see who can convince the Maori party that they should side with them - Brash will make boldfaced lies about how he was misinterpreted before the election, Clark will try to block anyone from mentioning the foreshore. The election will become 'Which major party will offer more to appease the Maori party's agenda' than any representation of the will of the people. A minor Labour politician will go and do something ridiculous and offended someone from the Maori party while he's being welcomed onto a marae, and National will swoop in to take the win, thus damning us to years of misery and torment. Hide won't get back in. Bizarrely, we'll see more* of him in the news once he isn't an MP than now. He will continue to contribute nothing but negative distractions. Later, he will attempt to form a coalition with the CHP. They'll still not break 5% in the next election. He will be replaced as leader of ACT, which, without Hide and Prebble, will become a withered shell of a party, ultimately breaking up in 2010. Nandor will still promote an anti-prohibition on marijuana stance, but tragically will lose his dreds to a bonfire one New Years Eve up the coast. He will subsequently lose the Youth Vote. The Greens wont break 5% again. Helen will remain as the leader of Labour-in-Opposition until 2008, when Michael Cullen will suffer a heart attack. Without her staunchest supporter, the tide of fate will swing against our second Woman Prime Minister, who will be replaced by an up and coming young Mike Appleby. Hide will end up hospitalised for exhaustion, following his inhuman efforts to remind us that Appleby led the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party. * plus Pete and Jim, but not Winnie, who will be ignored as soon as it's apparent that it doesn't matter wether or not he's in the Govt, since that one seat wouldn't have made the difference and either party will still need the Maori Party.

13th September 2005, 21:04	#31
Cheeps	if national wins im gonna go overseas for a bit most likely oz.

13th September 2005, 21:32	#32
BloodDonor	if national wins, were fuct if labour wins, were fuct, but itll take about 50 years to notice so who cares if another party wins... who are we kidding

13th September 2005, 22:24	#33
A Corpse talkative lurker	I really hope Winny loses Tauranga. I think NZ politics (and NZ as an extension of that) will be so much better off without his shitstirring and posturing.

14th September 2005, 00:02	#34
Russian	THREEE MORHHHHEEE YEEEEAHRS!

14th September 2005, 02:08	#35
BathTub	Hmm what I would like is Labour to get more seats than National, and the Greens to get in for a Labour/Green coalition. I think Act has a good chance of getting nothing, United Future back to 1 or 2 seats at most. I would be surprised (but happy) if Winston didn't win Tauranga and NZ First didn't meet the 5% threshold, but I suspect he will get one or the other (or both).