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12th August 2020, 12:18 | #1001 |
I... err - F*ck It.
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We're 3 degrees of separation away from one of the infected - Guy A.
1st degree was the guy B that works in the same room in an office as Guy A. 2nd degree was that Guy B drinking with Guy C (Brother in Law) for the whole weekend at a stag party in Auckland (which was a surprise that my BIL didn't want but participated in anyhow). 3rd degree is that said Guy C (BIL) spent a couple of days with us this week. Guy B (And his whole office) and Guy C (entire stag party) are all getting tested today. Given the incubation period, Group B and Group C won't be cleared for at least 10 days (Day 3 test and Day 10 test). Which means me and the missus are locked down for the next 2 weeks regardless. Zero chance of this only being a couple of days. |
12th August 2020, 12:53 | #1003 | |
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So very specific.
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Ξ √ Ω L U T ↑ ☼ N وكل يوم كنت تعيش في العبودية |
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12th August 2020, 12:55 | #1004 |
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lol call the grammar police, the ruskis missed a comma :P
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12th August 2020, 16:02 | #1005 | |
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12th August 2020, 16:06 | #1006 | |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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At least two workplaces, one with multiple offices; every single touristy place person 3 visited in Rotovegas, every person she travelled with, plus every place they stopped on the way; possibility of a preschool. This is starting to feel like chapter one of The Stand. I was hoping that this family would be members of a household containing a quarantine worker or an airline steward or something obvious. Doesn't look like it though. |
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12th August 2020, 16:21 | #1007 | |
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12th August 2020, 16:25 | #1008 | |
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Stay shook. No sook. |
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12th August 2020, 16:47 | #1009 | |
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Yes I know it was a grammar mistake - it was still amusing.
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Ξ √ Ω L U T ↑ ☼ N وكل يوم كنت تعيش في العبودية |
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12th August 2020, 22:09 | #1010 |
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I think they will be extremely wary of going to L4.
If they feel they have a handle on the tracing of it in the next 3 days, then they may leave it at L3 for 2 weeks. |
12th August 2020, 22:17 | #1011 |
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Everytime I see a Adern/Bloomfield/Labour conspiracy, Im going to start posting this.
Collins has a few weeks to settle into the role and then how convenient, there is community transfer from an unknown source. Basically the 1 way that National had any chance of winning - having another outbreak & postponing the election. What's the first thing Collins talks about with Hoskings not even 12 hours after the annoucement - that they need to postpone the election. This has all the hallmarks of a slimy National tactic. https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/13...nal-party-now/ |
12th August 2020, 22:40 | #1012 |
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Every developed country on lock down has no good reason to continue to be if it turns out all we need is 15-20% to reach herd immunity instead of 80-90% previously thought.
New York, London, Stockholm (where people are generally well-nourished and have good immune systems) all showing signs that the virus has burned through at around the 15-20% infected mark. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...-immunity.html It may be less about COVID-19 specific antibodies, and more about general coronavirus-fighting T-Cells. But never underestimate the power of big pharma with their eyes on a lucrative government contract to inject entire populations with their rushed-to-market COVID-19 vaccine. Science and reason are out the window while fear and greed rule the day. |
12th August 2020, 23:12 | #1013 |
HENCE WHY FOREVER ALONE
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Just don't live in a big city with overpriced housing and enjoy life.
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Finger rolling rhythm, ride the horse one hand... |
13th August 2020, 10:05 | #1014 |
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The Spanish flu managed get to Alaska within 6months of the outbreak. The gods do not care about your provincial township el friendo.
So, what's the plan with the lock down? What is it going to achieve? Will it deny a highly contagious virus from spreading? Will it delay it? I've got no idea what the goal is. |
13th August 2020, 18:02 | #1015 |
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The goal is to "flatten the curve" and stop hospitals from exceeding capacity. We surely all remember the videos out of Wuhan, then Iran, then Italy showing hospitals packed shoulder to shoulder, and morgues running out of storage space. These videos were evidence enough that something needed to be done to avoid the same fate as these countries.
In that context, knowing as little as we knew then, lock downs were very sensible. But it's a big experiment because we have no evidence that we can bring the R0 to below 1 through these measures. and we have no evidence that we can't either ("Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" - Taleb) The polite thing to do is for us to all to attempt social distancing, mask wearing and measure the results: - If it succeeds we can all clap eachother on the back and say "job well done!" - If it fails we should quickly recognise it has failed and stop pretending we can get stricter and stricter until it actually starts working By drawing out our first wave (yes, IMO we're not in the second wave yet), we risk turning COVID-19 into a rolling epidemic that is given time to mutate and maintain its intensity. But as we linger in this waiting place waiting for COVID-19 cases to spike or drop away, more opportunists are getting into position and may benefit from an extended lockdown period: - Big pharma needs the fear to be maintained long enough for them to bring vaccine products to market - Big Tech needs the fear to be maintained so they can sell contact tracing and surveillance products - Politicians always love a good crisis to push through their Patriot Act-level reforms - And other "Pro Freedom" people are coming out of the woodwork... mostly harmless noise makers for now. Until suicides exceed COVID-19 deaths, then they have a point. As an aside -- If any "Pro Freedom" libertarians get up in your face about the lock downs / mask wearing, remind them of their non-aggression principle. Knowingly or unknowingly infecting even one other person is to harm that person. |
13th August 2020, 23:19 | #1016 | |
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The virus has a long incubation period and is easily transferable from one to another and i don't see how any quarantine can be effective. |
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14th August 2020, 00:04 | #1017 |
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I feel the goal of "flatten the curve" was the minimum we were trying to achieve, so as to encourage people not to give up completely. But really, beating the virus, with every community quarantined until they had, that was the more desirable goal, and completely achievable in different circumstances. But in the absence of global leadership, it's an interesting question of how countries with the successful measures that are clearly possible will re-enter the global economy.
One thing we have to deal with is the volume of people who cope with their miserable lives by chasing money. They're going to be like addicts cut off from their fix. There doesn't seem to be any consideration of a war economy.
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Stay shook. No sook. |
14th August 2020, 00:39 | #1018 | |
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But for anyone thinking things through, panic buying would be too little, too late. If they were really that worried.
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Stay shook. No sook. |
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14th August 2020, 03:33 | #1019 |
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Fuck. This is not good.
I was wondering if something like this was going to happen. Like, how do we prevent people who work at or in quarantine facilities and at the border, coming into contact with all of those people who might have it, from acquiring the virus and spreading it among the general population? If they get the virus, it's probably some time before they return a positive test, and if they only test once a week, and they become infectious several days before their weekly test, then they could be walking around spreading the virus in the general population for several days before they return a positive test themselves. I think that working in the managed isolation facilities, quarantine facilities, or in any other border control role needs to be something like doing a tour of duty overseas; while you're on the job, you're not at home, effectively not in NZ. You're doing a tour of duty among the infected, maybe it's 3 - 6 months long; you're very well remunerated for this time, and when it's done, you do your own 14 day stint in quarantine with, 2 negative tests before you get back into the general population. A couple of months off, and then if you go back, you're once again going back to a work place that effectively means you're not in NZ. That's the job. I think anything short of this, and we're just going to keep seeing the virus get through, over and over again. I'm also worried that a bunch of swing voters will go "Well, Labour made a boo-boo, time to vote for National" and that this will therefore have a big impact on the outcome of the election. That's dangerous. It's true that National weren't responsible for this blunder, but the fact that they weren't responsible for this blunder does not imply that they would do a better job of managing our border. They might make any number of other mistakes, and in addition, they haven't had the time to build their team and be prepared to manage something like this, and they also haven't had the opportunity to learn from mistakes they have made, as the current government is presently engaged in doing. We should stick with the team that has got SOME experience doing the right thing. Mistakes were inevitable regardless of who was going to be in charge (they've happened in pretty much every country all over the planet). We have to allow them a reasonable number of mistakes, so that they can learn to do better. If we swap out to another team, we'll be swapping to a team that hasn't had the experience of managing our border under these conditions. That will make a whole lot more mistakes much more likely. Last edited by Nothing : 14th August 2020 at 03:34. |
14th August 2020, 10:42 | #1020 |
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I like the tour of duty idea.
The public service is separate from government. If National gets in they aren't going to do a Trump and just sack everyone. |
14th August 2020, 11:57 | #1021 | |
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It's more plausible than the government conspired to release it, or they knew about it a whole week earlier. |
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14th August 2020, 12:51 | #1022 | |
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14th August 2020, 12:55 | #1023 | |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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14th August 2020, 12:56 | #1024 | ||
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We'll get the same number of people infected regardless, but not necessarily the same number of deaths if we do succeed in flattening the curve. With time comes better treatment and therapy, so in that sense it is better to delay the inevitable infections so health workers can treat people correctly (ie not intubate everybody who presents with low blood/oxygen). Then there's the economic cost of delaying the spread, and deaths from despair. We'll never be able to verify and make an evidence-based case comparing suicide by lockdown to death by COVID unless media starts actually reporting on it: Journalists must overcome their reticence to report on suicide – now more than ever https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...more-than-ever and we do know that there is an effort to improve suicide prevention programs anticipating increased influx of cases: National suicide register needed soon to manage increased risk from coronavirus https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-...surge/12208668 Quote:
So, we get daily COVID death rate, we get monthly unemployment numbers, we can track small business bankruptcy rates, and we know that suicide prevention efforts are being increased in response to something. Add to that that middle class are more in debt than any time in history, and social isolation amplifies despair. The conditions are perfect for lockdowns to cause more harm than the good of slowing the virus. edit: from an Australian perspective, where eradicating the virus is not possible. New Zealand appears to have a chance to be completely free COVID. Last edited by Nich : 14th August 2020 at 13:00. |
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14th August 2020, 13:33 | #1025 | |
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Stay shook. No sook. |
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14th August 2020, 13:53 | #1026 | |
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Is it possible? Of course! Probable? Hardly. Perhaps you should read up on Occams Razor. |
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14th August 2020, 13:57 | #1027 |
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What is wrong with western society as a whole right now? It seems EVERYONE is looking for a boogeyman to blame, something to be offended about, anything to be angry at. It's as though people seem to feel that life should be fair, and if it's not IT'S SOMEONE ELSE'S FAULT!! News flash guys. Bad shit happens... Get over it.
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14th August 2020, 13:58 | #1028 |
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* Hanlon's Razor, in this case.
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14th August 2020, 14:41 | #1029 | |
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It's hard to be completely sure of the competence (or lack thereof) of people you delegate to. Incompetence can be so subtle, and can be caused by such a myriad of things, stress, boredom, inadequate expertise / knowledge, etc, etc. It's a long list. The more people there are involved in running a show, the greater the scope for cockups becomes. Laying responsibility for every cockup at the government's door is just a recipe for unstable government. Last edited by Nothing : 14th August 2020 at 14:44. |
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14th August 2020, 21:37 | #1030 | |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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Eric Crampton brings the pain (1)
Eric Crampton brings the pain (2) Summary: Quote:
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14th August 2020, 22:38 | #1031 |
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You can't suddenly change the terms of employment for a large group of people, especially when they're largely from one voting bloc.
I get that employees are typically considered trash who have to accept whatever might be thrust upon them should they want to keep their jobs. But employee protections do yet survive and carry weight in New Zealand. Given the relative success so far, any option involving mandatory testing of workers would be far messier, involving contentious legislation.
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Stay shook. No sook. |
15th August 2020, 00:11 | #1032 |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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Read the commentary I linked above
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15th August 2020, 00:38 | #1033 | ||
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That's what I'm responding to.
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Stay shook. No sook. |
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15th August 2020, 01:03 | #1034 | |
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15th August 2020, 01:08 | #1035 | |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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15th August 2020, 01:37 | #1036 |
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That's a can of worms. There are the individuals who would no doubt take their employers to court. And given how those employed in these jobs largely belong to one of a few communities, there are political ramifications to consider.
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Stay shook. No sook. |
15th August 2020, 04:08 | #1037 |
HENCE WHY FOREVER ALONE
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Sounds like a ridiculous argument to me Lightspeed.
Contracts usually have a general clause like "will do what is asked by the employer in carrying out their duties". You can't tell me that someone working frontline with COVID during a pandemic would a) refuse to be tested, b) take it to court/employment relations, and c) get found to be "within their rights" by a reasonable decision. I understand your argument, I just find it to be weak.
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Finger rolling rhythm, ride the horse one hand... |
15th August 2020, 04:46 | #1038 | |
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15th August 2020, 07:44 | #1039 | |
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I don't think any quarantine system/procedures are watertight, nor that the previous one was that terrible. But I do think that what they've immediately responded & changed to now should have been happening already.
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Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong. |
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15th August 2020, 11:26 | #1040 | ||
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The only people I've seen presenting any resistance to the likes of forced leave (you've got symptoms (that you'd otherwise normally come to work with) - go on sick leave now, get tested then you can come back after you're cleared of covid) are those that have no sick leave. Then there are those that are too dumb to know that their employer is leniant and will just make allowances. With that stupidity comes the attitude of 'what a load of bs I don't have covid'. Going to work while knowingly sick causing your workplace to feature on the 6pm news would be gross negligence.
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My degree of sarcasm depends on your degree of stupidity. |
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