Results thread 2014

[Spink]

I'm actually impressed at how poorly the left did in this election, I don't think I could intentionally (but not overtly) do things as poorly as they have done. It was really a series of masterstrokes in sabotaging themselves.

[Genesis]

Originally Posted by Spink

I'm actually impressed at how poorly the left did in this election, I don't think I could intentionally (but not overtly) do things as poorly as they have done. It was really a series of masterstrokes in sabotaging themselves.

If you wanted to watch a master-class in self destruction, the Australian Labor Party during the last election was the one to watch.

[Spink]

Repubs last US election did an admirable job too, looking forward to seeing what they run against probably Hillary.

[fixed_truth]

100% of advance and election day votes have been counted, but 293,130 special votes (12.2% of total votes) have yet to be tallied.

^Didn't realise this.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/electio...uted-ck-162732

If special votes follow their traditional pattern, and National's total is chipped down around 1% and Labour and the Greens rise slightly, then after all the campaign craziness it looks like the parties will end up almost exactly where they were on election night three years ago

[Know me.]

Its a perfect result for me. Not having conservatives or Internet Mana left me fist pumping the air last night.

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by Ab

Labour's lowest share of the vote since 1925. National possibly able to govern alone. Insane numbers.

It doesn't seem all that dramatic:



A marginal shift to the right. I supposed I can concede NZF gaining seats is a bit insane.

[DrTiTus]

It's dramatic if you wave you arms in the air while you say it

[The Edge]

I can't believe Act won Epsom, again.

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by fixed_truth

- Labour winning 6 out of 7 Maori seats further shows that Maori are not happy with the MP supporting National.

I think it will be awhile before we see those seats moving away from Labour again.

[leadinjector]

That's right guys, instead of backing the Maori party so that you have a voice in parliament, back the losers so you can get fuck all done in opposition. Infuriating. How the hell are the Maori party polling so low? Do their constituents really just not give a shit? They are now no longer necessary to key. Have they not done a good job, because I thought they were doing pretty kk working with the ants to get all this treaty obligation stuff ironed out.

[StN]

Had a LOL when listening to the wireless in bed - Sean Plunket was waiting for David Shearer to call John Key to concede...

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by leadinjector

That's right guys, instead of backing the Maori party so that you have a voice in parliament, back the losers so you can get fuck all done in opposition. Infuriating. How the hell are the Maori party polling so low? Do their constituents really just not give a shit? They are now no longer necessary to key. Have they not done a good job, because I thought they were doing pretty kk working with the ants to get all this treaty obligation stuff ironed out.

Perhaps being necessary to John Key was not the political outcome Maori party supporters were looking for?

[[BT]MikeMan]

Originally Posted by Rince

Read one opinion piece that Key might still talk to Winnie, to play the long game to the 2017 election
But it was just an opinion piece.

Thing is by 2017 Winnie will be gone for good and then the Nat's can do a deal with NZF without having to play to Winston's ego.

[Know me.]

With the world economy coming out of the GFC it could be a long time before any left wing government comes to power again.

[chubby]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

It doesn't seem all that dramatic:



A marginal shift to the right. I supposed I can concede NZF gaining seats is a bit insane.

if the left could cease undermining one another,things would be very different.national actually (too early for specials) shed nearly 50,000 party votes over last time.
tribalism loses for us again.

[fixed_truth]

[Farmer Joe]

I had a moment this evening where I took my son to after hours because he has a nasty cough and conjunctivitis.

All up it cost me a grand total of $1.00.

I would've loved the left to win but NZ is still awesome.

[Golden Teapot]

The left did win - there is no right in NZ!

[crocos]

Originally Posted by Golden Teapot

The left did win - there is no right in NZ!

Sort-of. There's certainly specific policies that are right aligned such as that Huxley-like GCSB bill.

Also I don't know what I'd call Act if not right wing... Maybe just idiots?

[Spink]

Originally Posted by crocos

Sort-of. There's certainly specific policies that are right aligned such as that Huxley-like GCSB bill.

Also I don't know what I'd call Act if not right wing... Maybe just idiots?

Does Act want to get rid of public healthcare? Does anybody?

[Omegakai]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

Perhaps being necessary to John Key was not the political outcome Maori party supporters were looking for?

The Maori party have seen to have sold out the interests of Maori , true or not Maori feel they haven’t been represented and Jk is very unpopular with them.

[Farmer Joe]

Originally Posted by Golden Teapot

The left did win - there is no right in NZ!

In your opinion, not in mine.

[leadinjector]

Originally Posted by Omegakai

The Maori party have seen to have sold out the interests of Maori , true or not Maori feel they haven’t been represented and Jk is very unpopular with them.

yeah but go back in time, make it so that the maori party didnt get in with national, and then get back in the magic time travelling device to today. would they have accomplished more after 6 years as a minor left party or as part of the ruling mob?

how can they possibly have "sold out" when if they chose to go the other way they would have achieved literally nothing?

what was it that Churchill said about democracy? >.>

[Omegakai]

Originally Posted by leadinjector

yeah but go back in time, make it so that the maori party didnt get in with national, and then get back in the magic time travelling device to today. would they have accomplished more after 6 years as a minor left party or as part of the ruling mob?

how can they possibly have "sold out" when if they chose to go the other way they would have achieved literally nothing?

what was it that Churchill said about democracy? >.>

Its natural to look back and be remorseful over opportunities squandered, we don’t see a lot of positive results when in regards to the Maori party, anything positive is swallowed up by their MMP partner such is the life of a minnow party.

[Macca@Work]

Interesting election alright.
Random thoughts and opinions:
felt a bit sorry for Hone.While he did saddle up with ompa lompa and lila haare (sp?) and backed the wrong horse,I do think he was one of the few who really did want to improve the lot of his people.
lila haare has lost all credibility because she saddled up with ompa lompa as well.
bit of a dark horse imo.
ompa lompa-wave good bye at the airport mate your out of here (one can hope.)tried to de stabalise the election and the government with lots of red herrings and lots of money.Guess it goes to prove kiwis arent as stoopid as he hoped.
Got more respect for the green party though.kept their nose clean and stuck to their platform-didnt get caught up in the general bs and mud slinging.
Metiria Turei-very impressed with her-seems very nice and articulate knew her party hadnt done great but fronted up to the media and presented herself well.unlike lila haare who had that quiet pissed off look and wouldnt say anything at the time.
Labour party-labour who?

[pxpx]

Yea I'm actually really surprised that the Greens didn't do better this time around. Feel a bit sorry for them.

Anyway, I did not expect an absolute majority for National. Good job NZ.

[Spink]

NZ Left needs the same thing that the American left (lol) and recent past NZ Left(and right) governments have used as a leader - a person that acts like a white man but is a minority of some sort or in some way oppressed.

People are still incredibly racist, especially outside of the major centers. I do think they feel progressive voting for something that has never been in power before, but not secure enough to vote for something that doesn't fulfil their expectations of what a leader should be in some way.

[pxpx]

Originally Posted by Spink

NZ Left needs the same thing that the American left (lol) and recent past NZ Left(and right) governments have used as a leader - a person that acts like a white man but is a minority of some sort or in some way oppressed.

People are still incredibly racist, especially outside of the major centers. I do think they feel progressive voting for something that has never been in power before, but not secure enough to vote for something that doesn't fulfil their expectations of what a leader should be in some way.

So, Grant Robertson?

[Golden Teapot]

Originally Posted by Farmer Joe

In your opinion, not in mine.

I'm not so sure mine is an opinion. Perhaps you could give me a sensible definition of what the center is evidenced by what occurs elsewhere.

As a starting point I am sure you'd agree with me if the USA was used but thinking wider on a population-weighted basis for western-style democracies I really do think I am on safe ground.

If you want to use an NZ-only definition of center then I'd agree with you.

[fixed_truth]

Originally Posted by leadinjector

yeah but go back in time, make it so that the maori party didnt get in with national, and then get back in the magic time travelling device to today. would they have accomplished more after 6 years as a minor left party or as part of the ruling mob?

how can they possibly have "sold out" when if they chose to go the other way they would have achieved literally nothing?

Well you'd have to ask those voters on the Maori roll. Maybe they know that National has never been a party that is going to facilitate real change for Maori and supporting them for a few token policies in the short-term could be offset if supporting the enemy (comparatively speaking) becomes normalised.

[fixed_truth]

Originally Posted by Spink

a person that acts like a white man

How does a white man act? Is it better than how a non-white man acts?

[Spink]

Originally Posted by pxpx

So, Grant Robertson?

Sexuality is a lot harder to sell to conservatives trying to get more progressive than a Maori, PI, Asian, Indian or a Woman.

[Spink]

Originally Posted by fixed_truth

How does a white man act? Is it better than how a non-white man acts?

Grow up+Calm down, I was talking from a stereotypical stand point of what a typical conservative voter in NZ would think.

I was talking purely from a marketing perspective anyway, not an ideological or philosophical one.

[fixed_truth]

I'm still interested in what someone Maori, PI, Asian, Indian would have to do to act white in order to be taken seriously by typical conservative voters?

edit: and what exactly acting not white or not white enough means?

All from a a marketing perspective of course.

[crocos]

I still don't get how Trev the Duck managed to get elected in Hutt South again.

[BoyWonder]

I wonder if David Shearer is going to have another go? It seemed to be something of a challenge to the rest of the caucus yesterday - "Its hard to take on what's in front of you when the real battle is going on behind you" (or something like that).

This is something that would seem to be obvious to most people outside the party but those inside seem to think it is justified... The way Labour is polling they will end up fighting each other over nothing eventually.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by pxpx

So, Grant Robertson?

Originally Posted by Ab

Back in the early 2000s my sole criterion for being the All Blacks centre was "can you tackle Stirling Mortlock?" That was it. Because if you couldn't there was no point being there.

The criterion for being the Labour leader in 2013 must be "can you tackle John Key?" That's it. Because if you can't there's no point being there.

Robertson can't tackle John Key. Fat, bespectacled, gay, childless, a political insider who went straight from student union politics to the usual Labour checklist of the United Nations, Helen Clark’s staff, and the Labour front bench, and who has never had a private-sector job or run a business in his life. He’s going up against the guy who grew up in a state house with an immigrant solo mother and who is now a self-made multimillionaire family man with houses in Parnell and Maui and who drinks Steinlager from the Bledisloe Cup in the All Blacks changing room. Next to that story the fat gay student politician from Helen Clark’s office looks about as appealing as cancer.

[Ab]

Called it on Te Tai Tokerau, 23 April:

if National made this happen they're fucking brilliant. Think of all the things that would have to come together.

Sir Wira Gardiner secretly donates to Jones's leadership campaign. Murray McCully informally sounds Jones out as to whether or not Jones really wants to spend another three years on the Opposition benches with a bunch of pakeha unionists, gay-rights activists, and tree-hugging hippies who hate him and hints that a high-level government job focused on Pacific economic development with a resources-slash-fisheries angle may soon be created if the right candidate could be found. Jones sees the writing on the hull and jumps from the sinking Good Ship Labour, which means that the next candidate off the Labour List gets tapped for a return to Parliament and oh ho ho guess who it is - Kelvin Davis. Kelvin Davis, a by-all-accounts bright talented hetero Maori male who got shafted by the sisterhood for being a bright talented hetero Maori male and who got given an embarrassingly low list position before the last election and who lost his job as a result. Being a lowly-ranked List MP who has already once been fucked by the party Kelvin Davis will feel like his hetero male testicles are on a table next to a pile of hammers unless he can win an electorate seat, and his home seat is oh ho ho it gets even better TAI TOKERAU. Which means to have any sort of job security Davis has to defeat Hone Harawira in an electorate race, which means Kelvin Davis has to knock the Mana Party and its parasite Kim Dotcom Party completely out of NZ politics and deprive the Labour Party of an entire coalition partner. Having a bright talented hetero Maori male running on the left in Tai Tokerau means that Harawira and Dotcom will be put under a fucking microscope during the election which is something I'm guessing neither of them want to happen. And this is all now a lot easier for Davis because he's now back in parliament because Shane Jones retired after being offered a job by Murray McCully, and being back in parliament means he gets to run this knock-off-Harawira Tai Tokerau electorate campaign with parliamentary funding.

Possible outcomes:

1. Kelvin Davis runs a good campaign with support from Labour and defeats Harawira in Tai Tokerau. Mana Party out of Parliament. National laughs.

2. Kelvin Davis loses Tai Tokerau when he gets hung out to dry AGAIN by Labour which gives him shitty support in his campaign because they want a possible coalition-partner party in Parliament more than they want a bright talented hetero Maori male on their own team. Labour thus confirms that it a) hates heterosexual males and b) hates Maoris all in one go, thus further pigeonholing itself as an extreme-left party. National laughs.

If McCully (and let's be honest, he wouldn't have done this himself, so let's include John Key) and National actually foresaw these possible outcomes and specifically targeted Jones in order to make them more likely, they have got serious game.

[CCS]

Here's what I called:

Originally Posted by CCS

Least trusted NZers:

Fucked on election day.

God I'm great.

[Ab]

This article is the only "how did National win?" article you need to read.

http://www.kiwipolitico.com/2014/09/reality-adjacent/