nCoV 2019

[Nich]

The stimulus can not last for the entire pandemic / joblessness / economic "reset". Aus gov recently announced their real budget for Jobkeeper programme is actually $70b rather than stated $130b. The stimulus is mostly intended to help people pay their fixed expenses (rent, power, internet, food), and was probably also partly intended to let people buy some other non essential shit too (Netflix, clothes, Playstation 4...). Now lots of people wont ever receive it, and for many it will not be enough to get them through the entire duration.

I presume most people's spending habits are changed forever, any stimulus cheque they receive will likely go straight into their savings account for essentials. There will be exceptions who are desperate to return to the way it was ... but those people who want it enough to spend their money to get things back to pre 2020 will be rare. Most people are waiting, holding onto their purchasing power to see how this shitshow plays out.


Some good personal news: Our airbnb is solid booked by current guest until August! Phew

Also: I am thankful that Hazel is 1y/o and I would otherwise be classified as unemployed but I get to be fulltime dad. Very thankful to be in regional area surrounded by nature...

[Nich]

also this:

A Truth That’s Told With Bad Intent
https://www.epsilontheory.com/a-trut...th-bad-intent/

I have no doubt the virus is real and is a big deal if you get it, but the political / media narrative is still a parade of big lies and the policies that are being put in place (not temporary "war time" policies either, mind) while the lies are still believable.

[Ab]

One of the biggest problems - or, rather, elements that one must bear in mind - is that the news media of the Western world work out of London, New York, and Washington DC. Those are three places that have been and are being absolutely smashed by COVID-19.

The thing is, hardly any of us live there. The media perception of COVID-19's impacts is defined by people who live in the absolute worst places in the world as far as COVID-19 is concerned. Almost none of us are experiencing the virus the way that journalists and bloggers in those cities are.

[Nich]

^^

or as Taleb would say: it's a long tail distribution, and everyone is writing narratives, making policies, forcing Apps down people's throats, and justifying them with the extremes on the graph.

Never use single point estimates for pandemics
https://youtu.be/_ZLrZc9NPVw

[Nich]

Market Sniper on Australian markets (and NZ)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn4Wu_75XEU

[pxpx]

When's he talk about covid19? I dont have an hour 20 listen to a rant about financial markets.

[pxpx]

Ok never mind I skipped through a few mins and the guy is a nutbar.

[Ab]

Jeez when you look at the cases and deaths on a linear graph the US and UK are disasters that aren't slowing down:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-.../12107500?nw=0

[Lightspeed]

Globally it's worse than the Boxing Day Tsunami by now.

[Trigga*happY]

I would be interested in the seeing the mathematics behind the long term modeling of something like this, or maybe more accurately of an accurate model of it anyway.

Taking into account growth of international travel as fear fades and necessity rises. Seeing how well or poorly the travel sanctions work. How quickly an isolated pocket that isn't found, grows again once lockdowns close.

Based on what they've discovered so far, what would the numbers be if it got to even 10% of the global population?

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Trigga*happY

Based on what they've discovered so far, what would the numbers be if it got to even 10% of the global population?

At the moment we have no fucking idea. Like, the disease is smashing rich countries with modern hospitals and leaving third world countries without functioning health systems relatively unscathed, and we can't even explain that.

There is as yet no actual explanation for why some places have been hit hard and some haven't. Superspreaders? Indoor culture? Aversion to facemasks? Obesity? Genetics? Fuck knows.

[Cyberbob]

We're trying to dissect the rugby game while it's still being played.

Once the dust has settled there'll be some awesome scientific findings, but it's too early to be having a data based discussion now, and will be for some time yet.

For now, the Nanny is blaming 5G.

[Ab]

Did Japan just beat COVID-19 without lockdowns or mass testing?

https://apple.news/A_lrdX47WRoGVXOgMQpAxfw

[blynk]

Asian countries were generally more prepared because of SARS last time.

This is why they knew what to do, the population knew what needed to be done.
They did it, and are mostly ok.

The western world basically thought they were immune to these sort of things.
"They happen in asian countries", "They happen in 3rd world african countries"

Travellers were the biggest carriers, which is why it hit more areas than others,

The state of the hospitals may only factor into the death rate of those that are serious, its not going to change the number of people that get it.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by blynk

Asian countries were generally more prepared because of SARS last time.

This is why they knew what to do, the population knew what needed to be done.
They did it, and are mostly ok.

Agreed to your first point; it seems that "dust off the SARS plan" was much better than the West's "dust off the flu plan".

To the second point, African countries had no idea what needed to be done, had no SARS experience, didn't do anything like the Asian countries, still mostly ok. wtf

[StN]

Also, as a population, they are not averse to wearing face masks.

[crocos]

Originally Posted by Ab

At the moment we have no fucking idea. Like, the disease is smashing rich countries with modern hospitals and leaving third world countries without functioning health systems relatively unscathed, and we can't even explain that.

My guess is less rich pricks with little to no symptoms (at least initially) flying in and out / sailing in and out

[Cyberbob]

Originally Posted by Ab

Africa: still mostly ok.

This intrigued me, wondering if it was their experience with Ebola etc, under reporting, under testing, a lack of East Asian travellers compared to the rest of the world, simply delayed international reporting, or what.

The more westernized countries are the highest reporting. Egypt, South Africa, and Algeria top the board in Africa for # of tests, # of cases, # of deaths.
But then all three will have higher intercontinental travelers and thus vectors for outbreaks.

[Nich]

No obesity problem in population, lots of vitamin D from sun.

African decent people based in Sweden / US are getting hammered by the virus:
https://english.alaraby.co.uk/englis...irus-in-sweden

Dr Rhonda Patrick hypothesises that it may be a severe lack of vit D for this segment of the population. No sun with enough UV to get absorbed by their skin + indoor lifestyle + Sweden had no lockdowns... virus went wild.
https://youtu.be/tBSfIckPV44

Also, vit D is fat soluble, and fat people can't get enough vit D because it gets trapped in their fat rolls and never gets to their cells / gene activation. Thus covid also hammers fat people.

[Nich]

results for hydroxychloroquine treatment to reduce inflammatory cytokine levels, reduce severity of illness, and reduce death rate in COVID 19 patients.
https://youtu.be/-7za_j7f3L0

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32418114/

[Nich]

and more on HCQ:
https://youtu.be/5i4BpTcBdrc

[Ab]

Who is "Dr John Campbell" and what is his professional credibility in this space?

[pxpx]

Originally Posted by Ab

Did Japan just beat COVID-19 without lockdowns or mass testing?

https://apple.news/A_lrdX47WRoGVXOgMQpAxfw

When coronapanic is over, everyone who is able should go visit Japan, it really is an absolutely fantastic place to visit.

[Ab]

The biggest stat that you’re not allowed to acknowledge: in every country, men have been hit hardest.

[Nich]

it's being talked about indeed:

for political point scoring...
https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/cu...ovid-war-women

“It’s true that more men are dying than women from Covid-19 around the world,” Heath and Rayasam wrote, “but that’s not exactly cause for celebration.” Big of them, don’t you think?

but on the science:
ACE2 is made by X chromosome. Dr Rhonda Patrick hypothesises that while men may have a larger attack surface of ACE2 receptor cells (including their balls), women are better able to replace any ACE2 cells that have been taken over by the virus.

[Nich]

If you dont trust Dr John Campbell, maybe a current NYC ICU doctor will suffice:

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 71: New Data on Adding Zinc to Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin
Medcram
https://youtu.be/WZq-K1wpur8

Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin plus zinc vs hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin alone: outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...036v1.full.pdf

[Ab]

Are there any studies on the impact of zinc used in conjunction with injected bleach? I heard there was a possibiiity that zinc+bleach produced different outcomes from bleach alone.

[Nich]

yes, yes. Orange man bad

[Cyberbob]

Originally Posted by Ab

The biggest stat that you’re not allowed to acknowledge: in every country, men have been hit hardest.

CNN: Coronavirus is killing more men. But the lockdown is disastrous for women and their rights.

Death is a social construct created by men to rob women of their patriarchal reparations.

[StN]

Originally Posted by StN

Cool - might be able to visit Dad, who fell over and broke his hip, because old.

Back at primary school, I fell over in the playground and broke my leg. Dad got called, and took me to A&E, trundled me to x-ray and then around the hospital getting a cast etc until we ended up hooning down a corridor in a wheelchair, being dicks, pretending the crutches were machine guns. He brought me home.

Then one night at scouts I got a couple of fingers crushed in a door jamb and again he was called and dutifully took me to A&E, winced when they pulled out the pliers (to relieve the pressure) and said I could say as many naughty words as I liked when they pulled out my nails. They don't plaster broken fingers - just wrap them heaps. He brought me home.

Even in my late thirties, after young Kylie misread the situation at the lights, and I ended up in AfterHours, he turned up so wifey could go home and tend to the kids. He sat there while I got plastered up again. He brought me home.

Time now to disappear for a bit, popping out to pick him up. Mum is a bit superstitious about keeping things at home, so finally, after breaking his first ever bone, I get to return the favour.

[blynk]

So who is in breach of privacy when stores are asking customers to right their Name, Address & Mobile number on a piece of paper along with all the others.

Is the store for not ensuring they are kept hidden or the government for not ensuring the stores are enforcing the privacy for them.

Apart from the fact I only write my name and NA for anything else, I'm pretty close to start taking photos of the pages and see what the stores responses are.

I didnt last night because I was still waiting for my Thai takeaways so I didn't want them to not give them to me.

[Lightspeed]

Some good reading:

UK's leaders want a disengaged public

The United Kingdom has had more than 271,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 so far, with more than 38,000 deaths. Estimates by the Office for National Statistics suggest there are currently 8000 cases per day in England alone.

And now, as a bit of a pandemic treat, the UK government is screening a 45-minute absurdist comedy sketch every weekday at 5pm, which they have confidently been calling "press conferences".

[fixed_truth]

May as well go to level 1 now. From what I've seen people generally aren't too concerned about distancing now & some shops are tracing some aren't.

Also not sure about bringing Aussie into the bubble yet.

[crocos]

Originally Posted by fixed_truth

Also not sure about bringing Aussie into the bubble yet.

As someone in Aussie: Don't. Not yet anyway.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by fixed_truth

May as well go to level 1 now. From what I've seen people generally aren't too concerned about distancing now & some shops are tracing some aren't.

4000 people gathered in central Auckland this afternoon to attend the Black Lives Matter March for Solidarity. The group travelled from Aotea Square to the US Consulate General on Customs St. Other demonstrations are happening this afternoon in Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin.

[Lightspeed]

Pfft, check out the protests in NYC. If/when the riots cool down they're gonna be hit by a stiff second wave.

It was a largely regular day at Bunnings this afternoon. Just the queue for the checkout was distanced. Not that it was that crowded, kiwis aren't that cosy with each other in the hardware store.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

Pfft, check out the protests in NYC. If/when the riots cool down they're gonna be hit by a stiff second wave.

Oh for sure. I was just observing that all it takes for Kiwis to completely forget about physical distancing and congregate in tightly-grouped crowds was some twitter outrage about a social cause on the other side of the world.

[Lightspeed]

That's the limit in human capacity to pay attention to more than one thing at a time. It's a spontaneous response to goings on in the world's waning hegemon.

[Ab]

Especially when one of the things is pointless virtue signalling

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12336332

[Lightspeed]

What the protest/march is would be particular to each individual involved. There's no coherent movement, as much as many would wish there was.