USA Presidential Election 2020 Hype Train

[The Edge]

If (by some small chance) Joe wins Texas, that's got to be endgame for Trump. No way he could come back from that - but I daresay it wouldn't stop him from trying.
538 shows Trump as "slightly favoured" to win Texas.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orecast/texas/

[Nich]

Joe will lose the same way Labour keeps losing in Australia:
https://twitter.com/wmiddelkoop/stat...361842690?s=21

It doesn't matter what [incomprehensible] actually is. A politician should never start sentences with:
- "We have a framework..."
- "We have developed an effective strategy..."
- "We will form a committee..."
- "We will consult with..."

As soon as I hear that bureaucratic speak I lose all interest. Give me "hope" and "greatness". Don't give me administration middle manager bullshit.

Also, there is no Left left in the western world. There is only looney tunes Right, and Centre-Right presented as options.

[Cyberbob]

So at what point do they give up trying to be one united country? Everything in the US appears to be almost a 50/50 split every time. Voters on either side see each other as the enemy.

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by Cyberbob

So at what point do they give up trying to be one united country?

Could be this week. We'll have to wait and see.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Nich

It doesn't matter what [incomprehensible] actually is. A politician should never start sentences with:
- "We have a framework..."
- "We have developed an effective strategy..."
- "We will form a committee..."
- "We will consult with..."

As soon as I hear that bureaucratic speak I lose all interest. Give me "hope" and "greatness". Don't give me administration middle manager bullshit.

Also, there is no Left left in the western world. There is only looney tunes Right, and Centre-Right presented as options.

this so much

[Lightspeed]

Pretty much what Labour's kiwibuild campaign was.

[Ab]

Look, most of the "this is how fascism takes over" think pieces are clickbait garbage, but this really makes me go WTF

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elect...LEMXA6LIRS3J2E

[Cyberbob]

Trump supporters block and shutdown New Jersey freeway ahead of Tuesday's election

[Nothing]

This election is fucking SCARY

[Ab]

The thing that really scares me is the fact that if he loses the election tomorrow, Trump stays president until Biden’s inauguration next year.

[Lightspeed]

I'm guessing he'll find a lot of doors closed on him the moment it's clear he's lost.

It would have to be seen what kind of tantrum he's willing to throw.

[The Edge]

Oh Trump still has his rabid, diehard fans, who would do anything for him, even after he's no longer president. Well, he hopes they would, anyway.
I think under him America has simply become more divided (and angry) than ever before.

[Lightspeed]

I doubt Trump's supporters are as brave or motivated as those who took to the street during the BLM movement. Any disruption will quieten down pretty quickly. Maybe a few cults left lingering that will get dealt with in due course.

[blynk]

Originally Posted by The Edge

If (by some small chance) Joe wins Texas, that's got to be endgame for Trump. No way he could come back from that - but I daresay it wouldn't stop him from trying.
538 shows Trump as "slightly favoured" to win Texas.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orecast/texas/

Assuming the latest poll was there when you looked. It will be close 50-49 and most of that will be based on actual votes (assuming people are telling the truth/the pollsters have accounted for that)

[smudge]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

I doubt Trump's supporters are as brave or motivated as those who took to the street during the BLM movement. Any disruption will quieten down pretty quickly. Maybe a few cults left lingering that will get dealt with in due course.

Disagree. I think it's going to be a total shitshow if trump loses. They aren't like NZ's right losing our elections, they're insane, brainwashed from 20+ years of fox, 5+ years of FB echo chambers, wanting the end times/rapture to come, and many of them armed to the teeth.

[Lightspeed]

Cowards and bullies. The first hint of resistance and they'll evaporate.

Sure, there will be a lingering hard core, and it may get dramatic. But I really doubt we'll see a lasting volume of people and disruption like we saw with the BLM movement. The difference between real oppression and imagined oppression is only one puts you through a crucible.

The US has no Ernst Röhm or Gregor Strasser. There's no organisation, no agenda, no force of will. Just delusions of grandeur.

[Nothing]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

Cowards and bullies. The first hint of resistance and they'll evaporate.

Sure, there will be a lingering hard core, and it may get dramatic. But I really doubt we'll see a lasting volume of people and disruption like we saw with the BLM movement. The difference between real oppression and imagined oppression is only one puts you through a crucible.

The US has no Ernst Röhm or Gregor Strasser. There's no organisation, no agenda, no force of will. Just delusions of grandeur.

I really hope you're right.

[blynk]

If it goes down to the wire* and Trump loses, it will be a major shit storm.
And being that Trump and presumably most of the Republicans will take everything to the courts, then there will be a large enough group out there that will not stand by the results.

They will storm and occupy government buildings.

*However if it does go down to the wire. Then that means 50% of americans are fucked in the head.
Maybe the country does need to go into civil unrest to sort its shit out.
Might end up with the Western States of America, Eastern States of America and Central States of America.

[The Edge]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...can-still-win/

also - final 538 forecast:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...tion-forecast/

[pxpx]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

Cowards and bullies. The first hint of resistance and they'll evaporate.

Sure, there will be a lingering hard core, and it may get dramatic. But I really doubt we'll see a lasting volume of people and disruption like we saw with the BLM movement. The difference between real oppression and imagined oppression is only one puts you through a crucible.

The US has no Ernst Röhm or Gregor Strasser. There's no organisation, no agenda, no force of will. Just delusions of grandeur.

Yep agree.

[smudge]

55% reporting, Texas is Biden 2.4% ahead. Hick counties to still come in... but man.

[Lightspeed]

Not counting on anything at this stage.

I wonder if actually there will be more disruption if Trump wins rather than loses. His supporters will feel considerably empowered, free to express what they've been holding back with all their weapons.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Ab

Ten? Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida... what else matters?

Trump ahead in 4 of those 5 according to Wapo.

[Lightspeed]

So far it looks like either Trump or too close to call. Senate looks like it's still with the GOP.

[Ab]

Wapo projecting Trump win by 30+ electoral votes right now.

The only way this doesn't come true is if:

a) there is a HUGE number of postal votes which haven't yet been counted, and
b) those postal votes are MASSIVELY weighted towards Biden, far more than the in-person votes, and
c) Trump isn't able to prevent those votes being counted

Originally Posted by Ab

Or, Trump just wins. Because the dems are fuxking useless.

[Lightspeed]

I blame Jacinda. NZ and the US can never be too closely aligned politically. We've always got to be opposing. Some uppity woman from far away talking all virtuous-like was all that was needed to galvanize Americans against the left.

[Ab]

Trump declares victory, alleges "massive fraud" by Democrats

[blynk]

Originally Posted by Ab

Wapo projecting Trump win by 30+ electoral votes right now.

The only way this doesn't come true is if:

a) there is a HUGE number of postal votes which haven't yet been counted, and
b) those postal votes are MASSIVELY weighted towards Biden, far more than the in-person votes, and
c) Trump isn't able to prevent those votes being counted

A abd B are very likely to be true.
The scary thing is that there is a chance the C becomes true too

[The Edge]

I can't believe that orange moron could possibly win again. What does he have to do to lose?
Mind you, Nixon screwed America over and he won in a landslide the second time.

https://www.gwern.net/docs/rotten.co...ate/index.html

In October, the Post reported that the break-in was part of a massive campaign of spying and sabotage being carried out by Republicans on behalf of the Nixon administration.

The American people were outraged, needless to say, and they showed their fury by viciously and savagely re-electing Nixon in a historic landslide. That'll teach the bastard!

[Nothing]

I am convinced that the average American IQ is never above room temperature.

[Lightspeed]

Well, it works up to a point. Keep people undereducated, overworked, always with the abyss that is unemployment and homelessness in the back of their minds. Not gonna have time to pay attention to politics and how that's all responsible for their circumstances. The media is bought out, they're not going to clue people in. If you're looking to set up an oligarchy or plutocracy you're on your way!

NZ has always had some of this, although I think Key's government with their US sourced political wonks worked hard to push us in this direction. Labour's shifted over to the new centre accordingly.

We've got work if we don't want the same for ourselves.

[Ab]

^^ agreed 100%. But, bigger picture that I'm really scared about: rationalism has failed. Liberal ideas have failed. The Enlightenment is over. This is the era of feelings and tribalism and id now.

[Lightspeed]

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by Ab

^^ agreed 100%. But, bigger picture that I'm really scared about: rationalism has failed. Liberal ideas have failed. The Enlightenment is over. This is the era of feelings and tribalism and id now.

I would say the era of tribalism started around the start of the 20th century, it's the whole basis for the Nation-State paradigm. I'm hoping we're coming to the end of that as it's something we're becoming aware of. I remember it being raised in a discussion literally two decades ago and grappling with the unfamiliar idea, but now it's a widely understood concept.

The era of feelings is a reaction to the past era of unfeeling. We killed our empathy to go to war. We fit everyone into a box to build human war machines, regardless of how well they fit. Now the pendulum has swung the other way as we've deconstructed a lot of that.

What I wonder about rationalism and the Enlightment is in fact they've succeeded very well. Our considered thinking has led us much deeper into the complex nature of the universe. But we've come so far there's a cost bringing people up to that level and we're not paying it.

My feeling is that once a real collapse starts happening the incompetent will fall away, leaving the competent to rebuild. At some point people will have suffered enough. But it's a question how much suffering that is. Our history points to a great capacity for suffering.

[crocos]

Originally Posted by Ab

^^ agreed 100%. But, bigger picture that I'm really scared about: rationalism has failed. Liberal ideas have failed. The Enlightenment is over. This is the era of feelings and tribalism and id now.

So sayeth the guy that said he voted ACT.

[crocos]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

My feeling is that once a real collapse starts happening the incompetent will fall away, leaving the competent to rebuild. At some point people will have suffered enough. But it's a question how much suffering that is. Our history points to a great capacity for suffering.

You have more faith in people than I do. I feel it's all too easy to fall into a perpetual state of FUD - all those on top* need to do is make people fear how much worse it would be without them - even if it's complete BS (perhaps especially if complete BS)

*Not just the in-power party - the Dems may be better, but they're still kinda right-wing vs many other countries

[crocos]

Hmm. Interesting - Biden only 6 EC votes away from being USA's 46th President at the moment. Trump needing 56.

Basically if ANY of the remaining states - even one with as few EC votes as Nevada - flips to Biden, then he's got it, pending mail-ins (which seem to be mostly favouring Biden). Not that any of them are guaranteed - too many states are way too close for comfort.

[StN]

So it's really tight - like a 50-50 split - almost like a law of averages thing (you know, like the one that says half of a population have below average IQ...)

[blynk]

I actually don't believe its a tight race.

The only reason it is a "tight race" is because the was such a huge mail in count.
If they had the usual mail in vote count and everyone else voted in person on the day. We would have known on the day that Biden had won.

But because of the delay in couting the ballots, it makes it seem like Trump (who got the on day vote) is making it a contest.

Biden will win 300+ EV, and 4m+ popular vote 51% to 48%

[Nich]

The pull of the "fuck you" vote is strong. I've often fantasized about elections having a checkbox that says "Fuck this entire system", to me Trump & Brexit is as close as we've gotten to that checkbox.

However, that Biden speech tho, was very good. Why the fuck didn't he run on that platform? "We aren't naive, we all have very strong ideas for our country, but now is the time to unite." Simple, and perfect.