nCoV 2019

[MadMax]

Or, here’s where NZ shines and sticks it the big finger due to high vax rates.

[xor]

The red light setting isn't going to reduce/delay hospital admissions. #letitrip

[Ab]

If the overseas experience is any indicator, what will happen is that the fast-spreading Omicron variant will cause infection numbers to go through the roof (NSW went up 40x - not forty percent, forty times) and the hardest hit will be those populations that have cultural reasons to be inside together (religious groups, large immigrant families in the same house, sports fans, companies that demand everybody has to work in the office, etc). Vaccinated people won't get terribly sick. (Inc, who got it, said to me "I've had worse hangovers than this") Where there's an intersection between groups of people inside and groups of people unvaccinated, shit is going to get real, and yep some people will die.

Where failure to prepare is really going to bite is in areas like testing, isolation times, and supply chains. What South Australia has seen is a huge increase in infections, so huge numbers of people needing to be tested, and the system not keeping up. Nobody wants to wait in a queue for 8 hours to get a swab, and nobody wants to wait 8 hours in a queue to to then get told "sorry we just ran out of tests". And then when the labs are swamped with tests, it can take days for test results to come back. And a responsible person will isolate from the moment he/she starts feeling sick until the test results are in. So that means huge numbers of people won't turn up for work, and all of a sudden society at large will realise that the people who load containers and drive trucks and stock shelves can't do it remotely via Teams.

[StN]

Originally Posted by Ab

Where there's an intersection between groups of people inside and groups of people unvaccinated, shit is going to get real, and yep some people will die.

...but then where will Bishop Tamaki (and his southern hanger on Derek) get his untraceable, cash only, tax free tithes from? I'd be organising protests if I were him!

[Ab]

Maori+PI communities will get hit hard, for sure. Churchy, unhealthy, mistrusting of govt health advice.

You’ll know things are really bad when the govt starts doing things to hide the numbers. Like, “we’re now counting hospitalisations not infections”.

[_Incubus_]

Originally Posted by Ab

If the overseas experience is any indicator, what will happen is that the fast-spreading Omicron variant will cause infection numbers to go through the roof (NSW went up 40x - not forty percent, forty times) and the hardest hit will be those populations that have cultural reasons to be inside together (religious groups, large immigrant families in the same house, sports fans, companies that demand everybody has to work in the office, etc). Vaccinated people won't get terribly sick. (Inc, who got it, said to me "I've had worse hangovers than this") Where there's an intersection between groups of people inside and groups of people unvaccinated, shit is going to get real, and yep some people will die.

Where failure to prepare is really going to bite is in areas like testing, isolation times, and supply chains. What South Australia has seen is a huge increase in infections, so huge numbers of people needing to be tested, and the system not keeping up. Nobody wants to wait in a queue for 8 hours to get a swab, and nobody wants to wait 8 hours in a queue to to then get told "sorry we just ran out of tests". And then when the labs are swamped with tests, it can take days for test results to come back. And a responsible person will isolate from the moment he/she starts feeling sick until the test results are in. So that means huge numbers of people won't turn up for work, and all of a sudden society at large will realise that the people who load containers and drive trucks and stock shelves can't do it remotely via Teams.

We'd been triple boosted about 10 days before I got it, I like to think that really helped me get over it very quickly. It really was very mild for me...a hangover for about 4 days...then the missus got it and the 2 kids. She was a bit worse than me, the 12 year old that had one dose was quite mild as well. The 9 year old without any immunity was throwing up for a couple of days and had a really nasty fever along with hallucinations. He suffered a lot worse than the rest of the household.

Getting tested here in SA was a joke, it took 2 days to get my PCR results after a positive RAT test to alert me to having it initially. No calls from the Health Dept about where I got it. The queues were crazy and we couldn't get any additional RAT tests to know when we were clear other than the arbitrary 10 days and you're ok to leave your plague house.

[DrTiTus]

Thanks Inc.

I hope everyone else reports any illness so we've got sample data on who gets it, who dies, and how long we each take.

This is where the real science begins. We've got our "As Seen On TV" hypothesis, the population/subjects are prepared, let's see how the experiment goes.

Hoo rah!~

[Ab]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

Thanks Inc.

I hope everyone else reports any illness so we've got sample data on who gets it, who dies, and how long we each take.

This is where the real science begins. We've got our "As Seen On TV" hypothesis, the population/subjects are prepared, let's see how the experiment goes.

Hoo rah!~

No. People telling personal anecdotes is not real science.

Here's another thing that's going to fuck NZ: the Omicron wave is going to hit just as the school holidays end. If schools stay open, that's a big fucking petri dish of people inside together. If they close, households are turned upside down even without infections. Parents will have to stay home, and again people who drive trucks and stock shelves can't do it remotely.

[DrTiTus]

If you say so

[Lightspeed]

Viper's Vax

This guy is apparently legit getting paid by RT to do investigative journalism, but I have no idea. I do know he's hilarious tho.

[Lightspeed]

For humour value only:

Maybe it's time to get hold of some cannabis:

Cannabidiol Inhibits SARS-CoV-2 Replication and Promotes the Host Innate Immune Response

I say for humour only because while it's a legit paper, let's not pretend we're in a position to interpret primary source information of fields we're not experts in.

[Ab]

For not humour value:

https://apple.news/AFKtvALYUR-WmBKL6HENgvw

[The Edge]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

Please explain to me, seriously: If vaccination is our way out of this, and so many people are vaccinated, why are cases at an all time high?

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-z...ctiveness.html

[Cyberbob]

Pretty sure Simpson's Paradox applies here.

Vaccinated people have more cases than unvaccinated cases, but when you look at both sets of data together, it's far worse for the unvacccinated.

You can't just look at the quantities and be done with it. You need to look at the data with the correct analysis. Not the analysis you want to apply to get the conclusion you want, but the most appropriate one given the data sets.

Dr Watson said looking at cases per 1000 people, 3.1 were unvaccinated but just 0.73 were vaccinated showing unvaccinated people were 4.2 times more likely to be infected.

And it's even more startling with hospitalisations. Per 1000 people, 0.32 were unvaccinated and 0.017 were vaccinated meaning unvaccinated people are 18 times more likely to be hospitalised.

[DrTiTus]

Now look at the data for 40 year olds and convince me I should give a fuck.

[sidbo]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

I should give a fuck about other people.

[Ab]

I am now triple vaxxed (2x AZ, 1x Pfizer) and my Internet speeds are better than ever, thank you BillG

[Cyberbob]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

Now look at the data for 40 year olds and convince me I should give a fuck.

I'm happy to have this discussion. Can you please show me the data you're refering to first?



That sort of thing? Or have you got some other data that fits your narrative better?

[Ab]

His body his choice

https://apple.news/ASFwiVQbhSB6aqrxTc1UwEw

[xor]

Originally Posted by Independent article

A young father is being denied a heart transplant because he won’t get vaccinated against Covid-19.

Does the article mention how candidates are chosen for heart transplants? You have to register to read the article.

[DrTiTus]

Let's go with your data.

0.02% chance of hospitalization on a given day. Wait, let's be generous. 0.03% chance of hospitalization.

So 99.97% of unvaccinated 40 year olds are not in hospital in a worst case scenario. Most of the time, 99.99% of unvaccinated 40 year olds are not in hospital. Really makes you wonder what's different about the ones that do end up in hospital.

I'll take those chances, thanks for your affirmation.

[Cyberbob]

Originally Posted by xor

Does the article mention how candidates are chosen for heart transplants? You have to register to read the article.

Never paste https://facebook.com/l.php?u= before a URL like that, otherwise you might unfortunately get around paywalls.

like many other transplant programs in the United States – the Covid-19 vaccine is one of several vaccines and lifestyle behaviors required for transplant candidates in the Mass General Brigham system in order to create both the best chance for a successful operation and also the patient’s survival after transplantation.

Transplant candidates must also receive the seasonal influenza and hepatitis B vaccines, follow other healthy behaviors, and demonstrate they can commit to taking the required medications following transplant.

[StN]

Hmmm - Charles may have been on to something after all...

[_indigo1]

Originally Posted by xor

Does the article mention how candidates are chosen for heart transplants? You have to register to read the article.

Even aside from that; would they accept a vaxxed heart??

[smudge]

Kinda mind boggling to think someone would be ok with doctors cutting their heart out, and sewing someone else's in, but not being willing to have a vaccine. *shrug*

[MadMax]

Maybe I'm getting old but covid-19 seems to have caused 2020 and 2021 to be blurred together.

[Cyberbob]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

I'll take those chances, thanks for your affirmation.

By the numbers, I have a very low chance of crashing my car today. I have an even lower chance of ending up in hospital today from crashing my car.

But i'm still putting on my seatbelt because despite such a low chance of crashing my car, i want to give myself the best chance I can of not ending up in hospital or worse, should the unforseen happen. It's a choice I make, it's easy to do, it's free, and yes it's also mandatated that I do it in the interest of social safety.

In New Zealand, road traffic mortality is 74 per million.
Right now, COVID deaths in NZ is 10 per million.

Guess what the UK's is at the moment? 2,249 per million.
The US? 2,656 per million.
Australia, 130 per million.

We're in a fortunate position right now of having low numbers, but could very easily shoot right passed our road traffic mortality in no time. But you'll still put your seatbelt on.

[DrTiTus]

If you want to use the seatbelt analogy, then getting vaccinated is like wearing a few strands of wool as a seatbelt. It kinda looks like protection, but the reality is it won't do shit, and if you're going fast enough (a person whose health is already compromised), you're gonna die. The wool might hold you if you have a little bump, but chances are you would have survived anyway.

[Ab]

Imagine living in a timeline in which 95% of car-crash hospitalisations and 99% of car-crash deaths are of people who didn't wear a seatbelt, and then saying "the reality is it won't do shit"

[DrTiTus]

And finding out they were all 80 and died of medical events and then still ragging on people who don't fit the profile.

You'd not be right in the head.

[Lightspeed]

Using the seatbelt analogy, some people would be mid-air after a head-on collision about to become a meat crayon and would still believe seatbelts aren't worth it.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

And finding out they were all 80 and died of medical events and then still ragging on people who don't fit the profile.

You'd not be right in the head.

"That person who died of internal injuries after crashing a car without a seatbelt would have fallen down some stairs anyway!"

[StN]

My son just explained why the RAT thingies don't work well in a small sample size/low contamination environment, but as my maths_with_stats shrivelled up around 35 years ago, and there has been a Pinot influence, I smiled and nodded.

[Ab]

australian data, explainer for dummies

[ePi]

A few of my UK friends (v. healthy, mid 30s) are suffering pretty bad from long covid. Like complete change of lifestyle - v. debilitating. I wonder how long that'll last and if it will ever go away.

I remember when I had Dengue Fever a few years ago and that pretty much knocked me out for 6 months. Once the initial fever disappeared I was taking 6 naps a day and gradually declining to 1 nap a day after 6 months. But I got over it slowly. Hopefully it's the same with this thing.

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

It'll be interesting to see how this bumps up with Omicron likely in the wild

There it goes:

[The Edge]

I hope that's wrong, but I guess we'll have to see. I do remember Delta was meant to cause zillions of cases too, but it didn't...maybe we were just lucky.

Also Simon, while you're here - the clock on the forums appears to be about 25 minutes slow.

[Ab]

Got it.

[Lightspeed]

[smudge]

Originally Posted by The Edge

I hope that's wrong, but I guess we'll have to see. I do remember Delta was meant to cause zillions of cases too, but it didn't...maybe we were just lucky.

Chris Billington's predictions have been incredibly accurate in NSW.

His chart for us on Xmas day had us peaking in the middle of Jan: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus...h_daily_cases/

We peaked on the 15th.