NZ Housing boom over?

[Gentl e]

Originally Posted by Juju

They have been trialling, or talking about a trial for this in Queenstown for years now? So I guess this 'announcment' is just to say it will be for the whole country now.

I think its a bit 50/50 if it'll help;

On the one hand, it may help with lower income people wanting to get into the property market, but on the other hand I have the distinct feeling that this policy wil only help prop up house prices.

[Sp0nge]

Originally Posted by Sgt Seb

hmm you sound like purple-kush

lol, not me...
i say no to drugs.

i just think its funny how some people like to condense things into either/or scenarios.

housing is either inflated or undervalued
the sharemarket is either crashing or booming
etc

the reality is that markets spend most of the time in a range...ie in equilibrium.
and booms/crashes are just the exception to the rule.

[Pleb'a]

Originally Posted by Gentl e

Government to the rescue [nzherald.co.nz]

I see the pros, but I see the cons.

Give non-responsible emotional/pressured buyers more money = push up the house prices with irresponsible impromptu sales.

I would put money on it, people spend less time investigating/buying a house on average to the time spent into buying a car (I would award the pressure purchases to the fact car buyers don't have your contact details to hound you).

[Omegakai]

This was tried in OZ from memory. failed because the government said it would give up to X%, people then just put their homes up around the same amount, unrelated topic.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/metro/stor...ectid=10492147

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Omegakai

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/metro/stor...ectid=10492147

Cracking is NORMAL here in Adelaide -- more houses have drought-related cracks than don't. When I was house-shopping this time last year, every single house I looked at had cracks, as did the one I bought.

[Sp0nge]

is that just hairline type of cracks or goatse cracks?

even here in welly, if you look closely enough, most houses have plenty of hairline cracks somewhere.

[StN]

^^^ Life on the faultline?

[LFC]

REINZ figures out, from 36 average days to sell in Dec to 49 in Jan.

Houses definitely aren't selling as no one can afford them!!

[Sp0nge]

yesterday we put in a tender for a house...

i've been looking at the market closely, and because of the negative media hype lately i thought we might be able to pick up a bargain.

our tender was about 3% above valuation so i thought we had a reasonable chance

got a call last night that the successful offer was about 10% above valuation.

so like i said before, here in welly houses are taking longer to sell, but they are still selling and they are still rising in price.

[LFC]

Originally Posted by Sp0nge

yesterday we put in a tender for a house...

i've been looking at the market closely, and because of the negative media hype lately i thought we might be able to pick up a bargain.

our tender was about 3% above valuation so i thought we had a reasonable chance

got a call last night that the successful offer was about 10% above valuation.

so like i said before, here in welly houses are taking longer to sell, but they are still selling and they are still rising in price.

When you say valuation do you mean the GV or an independent valuation?

[Sp0nge]

in this case it was GV, but it happens with RV, etc.

when it comes down to it, the only true valuation is the market value, i.e what people actually pay for it....and people are still paying inflated amounts...

recent sales around that area were not as high, and imo we could build that place for a lot less than they paid for it...

i think if they put the house on the market tomorrow, theyd struggle to get their money back (even if you ignored agent fees etc)

i think many people are still with the mindset that housing is booming, and thats probably why maybe it still is.

[Torka]

Er...isn't 10% above the GV pretty crap? I thought it was common for a house to sell well above the GV.

[LFC]

If you got a house at only 10% above GV it would be a reasonably good deal, depending on how recent the GV was done.

Alot of houses in Auckland I have seen would be a good 30% above the GV and in the current market that is asking way too much.

[Sp0nge]

i agree that 30% above GV is way too much in the current environment..and those are the people that will notice first when the market changes....theyll be losing plenty.

when the market slows, prices will tend to move closer to GV.
even 10% above GV may be paying too much.

as this link says: "buyers have been quick to sense that the market is weakening and they are ready to take advantage of that situation".

our offer was doing just that...looking for a cheap $700k bargain, lol

but the market is not that weak yet here....so we shall try again in a few months ;-)

[Cyberbob]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4399693a10.html

awesome.

Mr Snedden told Parliament's social services select committee he expected the 500 affordable homes planned for the 3000 home project, which has been billed as a model for such developments, to have a price-tag in the mid $300,000 range.

Couples would need to be earning about $70,000 to service a mortgage on the homes, he said.

Mortgage calculators show repayments on a 30-year 90 percent loan at a current two-year fixed interest rate of 9.35 percent would be $603 a week before rates and insurance.

At a rate of 8 percent, repayments would be $533 a week.

The joint income, after tax and ACC, of a couple each earning $35,000 is $1064 a week.

National's housing spokesman Phil Heatley questioned how those homes could be termed "affordable".

[Ard Righ]

Originally Posted by Cyberbob

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4399693a10.html

awesome.

Mr Snedden told Parliament's social services select committee he expected the 500 affordable homes planned for the 3000 home project, which has been billed as a model for such developments, to have a price-tag in the mid $300,000 range.

I thought they were originally targetting the $250K range?

Wonder what happened to add the extra costs.

[pk_wasp]

There isn't a housing slump and won't be for a long time.

Nearly everyone has a job and most earn enough to service a mortgage.

+ NZ has such a high percentage of property investors raking in those raising rents..

You really need to see the NZ economy tanking (not just high inflation), to have any effect on the housing market.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Cyberbob

National's housing spokesman Phil Heatley questioned how those homes could be termed "affordable".

Because a 60-year-old Baby Boomer who bought his first house for $20,000 and now owns two others will be able to afford it comfortably.

[pk_wasp]

The baby boomers definitely had the easy life e.g. they had the best years of both the property and the stock market.

Anyone here one?

[dead goon]

Helen's got a plan

http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/536641/1581274

edit: yeah its already been announced by someone above me

[caffiend]

And meanwhile... I wait.

[dead goon]

and meanwhile... i save!

[Word]

Originally Posted by dead goon

Helen's got a plan

http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/536641/1581274

edit: yeah its already been announced by someone above me

"A share of the property is secured by the state or a state approved agency."

State approved agency. Wonder if they will New Zealand owned?

[Markh]

Originally Posted by Word

"A share of the property is secured by the state or a state approved agency."

State approved agency. Wonder if they will New Zealand owned?

Is Australia part of NZ?

[hsh]

Looking at international trends is quite interesting:

Affordability calculator for Aust, Canada, USA

http://www.fcpp.org/main/citycal.php?country=3

and the Affordability Survey (the full survey which the Herald used in one of their articles)..

http://www.demographia.com/dhi-ix2005q3.pdf

[LFC]

Originally Posted by Sp0nge

i agree that 30% above GV is way too much in the current environment..and those are the people that will notice first when the market changes....theyll be losing plenty.

Just to prove that vendors are still out of touch, this is a house that was listed on TradeMe today.

Rateable or GV is $510k and they are asking for $719k, thats over 40% more than the GV.

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Trade-Me-Pr...htm?key=188325

[Ab]

Narrators voice: it wasn’t

[Ab]

https://thespinoff.co.nz/money/12-04...-to-australia/

[xor]

My only regret about moving to aus is that I couldn't convince my family to do it 10 years earlier. NZ is a joke now

[StN]

Originally Posted by xor

My only regret about moving to aus is that I couldn't convince my family to do it 10 years earlier. NZ is a joke now

Hmmm, but on a non-housing note, burying USB sticks in your backyard might cause backlash. Bit of a bother that flag referendum didn't make it a clear point of difference.

[Trigger]

Originally Posted by Ab

Narrators voice: it wasn’t

I thought prices were high in 2010, so vehemently opposed any investment into the property bubble and waited for the dip.

Things worked out.