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Old 21st April 2020, 09:39     #641
Ajax
Architeuthis
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrTiTus
but still made enough to have a smile on my face.
(for now)
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Old 21st April 2020, 10:51     #642
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
um the price of oil just dropped below zero.

https://apple.news/A2pd8nia0SMmnStFNOzRwSQ
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Old 21st April 2020, 12:48     #643
Nich
 
huh! so there will be blood afterall.
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Old 21st April 2020, 13:10     #644
Cyberbob
 
So what does that actually mean. The Oil suppliers are paying to get rid of it?
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Old 21st April 2020, 13:56     #645
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyberbob
So what does that actually mean. The Oil suppliers are paying to get rid of it?
Yep.

They've got nowhere to store their inventory.
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Old 21st April 2020, 13:58     #646
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
US oil prices turned negative for the first time on record on Monday as North America’s oil producers run out of space to store an unprecedented oversupply of crude left by the coronavirus crisis.

The price of US crude oil collapsed from $18 a barrel to -$38 in a matter of hours, forcing oil producers to pay buyers to take the glut of crude which they cannot store, as rising stockpiles of crude threaten to overwhelm oil storage facilities.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...19-relief-fund
Quote:
Oil futures collapsed to below zero for the first time ever as the deepening economic turmoil caused by the coronavirus crisis left traders desperate to avoid taking delivery of physical crude.

In an unprecedented day of trading, the price for the May contracts wiped out all value, breaking every low for oil prices since 1946. The exchange where WTI futures trade said the contract would be allowed to price below zero. The extreme move showed just how oversupplied the U.S. oil market has become with industrial and economic activity grinding to a halt as governments around the globe extend shutdowns due to the swift spread of the coronavirus. An unprecedented output deal by OPEC and allied members a week ago to curb supply is proving too little too late in the face a one-third collapse in global demand.
...
Since the start of the year, oil prices have plunged after the compounding impacts of the coronavirus and a breakdown in the original OPEC+ agreement. With no end in sight, and producers around the world continuing to pump, that’s causing a fire-sale among traders who don’t have access to storage.

https://time.com/5824353/oil-stock-may-negative/
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Old 21st April 2020, 16:40     #647
Lightspeed
 
So much for the price war. I can't begin to figure how that's going to play out. Personally I wonder how this is going to mess with whatever plans MbS has going. The Saudi's have been killing an awful lot of people, they must have a lot of enemies about now. A lot to gain, a lot to lose and millions of lives on the line. Unexpected events can fuck up already fucked up situations.
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Old 21st April 2020, 17:22     #648
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
I know "America crazy" has been a common theme in discussions here over the years, but I'm not sure anything has ever reached the level of "people demanding the right to catch a pandemic supervirus" before.
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Old 21st April 2020, 18:20     #649
Know me.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightspeed
So much for the price war. I can't begin to figure how that's going to play out. Personally I wonder how this is going to mess with whatever plans MbS has going. The Saudi's have been killing an awful lot of people, they must have a lot of enemies about now. A lot to gain, a lot to lose and millions of lives on the line. Unexpected events can fuck up already fucked up situations.
Game, set and match. US oil industry crushed.

US government will step in now and save it. They can't be without a sovereign supply in the coming years.
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Old 22nd April 2020, 09:58     #650
Trigga*happY
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Know me.
Game, set and match. US oil industry crushed.

US government will step in now and save it. They can't be without a sovereign supply in the coming years.
I know that's the common theme in politics. But is the US going to have the resources to do that? There are approx 1500 oil companies in the US, the banks are circling the wagons, the people are requiring handouts, businesses are clamoring for aid. Too many balls in the air, at some point the juggler just has to let one fall. While the natural instinct may be to grab the oil, it's just so damned expensive to get out of the ground for the US, that I reckon it might be left to fend for itself, the government can pick up the pieces afterwards.

Certainly going to be interesting to see how it plays out.
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Old 22nd April 2020, 10:52     #651
Nich
 
The juggler may drop some balls, but they will be the least important ones (ie mom and pop) ie the ones that aren't financial terrorists, professional scammers, and over leveraged wall street lobbyists.

Resetting the Bomb
Another era of debt-fueled profiteering is ending with a bailout. How we’re institutionalizing the unfairness economy
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/resetting-the-bomb

We need a new occupy movement.
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Old 22nd April 2020, 11:25     #652
StN
I have detailed files
 
Shhh! My Super has managed to claw back half of last months losses in three weeks. I hope none of it is in oil...
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Old 22nd April 2020, 11:41     #653
Trigga*happY
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
The juggler may drop some balls, but they will be the least important ones (ie mom and pop) ie the ones that aren't financial terrorists, professional scammers, and over leveraged wall street lobbyists.

Resetting the Bomb
Another era of debt-fueled profiteering is ending with a bailout. How we’re institutionalizing the unfairness economy
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/resetting-the-bomb

We need a new occupy movement.
I would have thought a sound idea in this situation would be to offer to store the oil in the national reserves in return for shares in the failing oil companies, then when they file for chapter 11, offer to buy the remaining shares at a reduced rate and end up with a whole bunch of SOE oil drilling companies, ready to ride the rising stock prices once the oil prices stabilise.
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Old 22nd April 2020, 13:29     #654
Know me.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trigga*happY
I know that's the common theme in politics. But is the US going to have the resources to do that? There are approx 1500 oil companies in the US, the banks are circling the wagons, the people are requiring handouts, businesses are clamoring for aid. Too many balls in the air, at some point the juggler just has to let one fall. While the natural instinct may be to grab the oil, it's just so damned expensive to get out of the ground for the US, that I reckon it might be left to fend for itself, the government can pick up the pieces afterwards.

Certainly going to be interesting to see how it plays out.
By sovereign supply in the coming years I was inferring that their might be a war coming. In that context they should be saved (from US perspective). Even still, if its purely just a Covid19 SHORT term thing they have to worry about its still worth keeping the US oil industry alive.

US national reserves will already be full.
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Old 22nd April 2020, 13:40     #655
Know me.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by StN
Shhh! My Super has managed to claw back half of last months losses in three weeks. I hope none of it is in oil...
A lot will be in oil companies, unless you are with one of the "green" “responsibly invested” "woke" "socially conscious" "ethically invested" “socially responsible” funds.

The oil companies are tracking the rest of the market (for now) anyway, so its a moot point.
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Old 22nd April 2020, 14:02     #656
Trigga*happY
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Know me.
By sovereign supply in the coming years I was inferring that their might be a war coming. In that context they should be saved (from US perspective). Even still, if its purely just a Covid19 SHORT term thing they have to worry about its still worth keeping the US oil industry alive.

US national reserves will already be full.
Unfortunately war is almost an inevitability in times of crises, lets just hope we've learned from past mistakes. However, I'm not talking about removing US oil from the equation, i'm talking about allowing a structured failure of the oil economy within the US. With the govt picking up the pieces rather than an outright bailout.

The US SPR has a capacity of around 750m barrels. Last time I looked (admittedly a month ago), they were running at approximately 600m barrels stored. So with an offer of storage for 150m barrels to the heavily debt burdened companies, in exchange for shares in the company the US can effectively offer 'loans' to these companies without shelling out any $$ at all. The oil is held until prices rebound, and sold off at reasonable rates.

Plus, if the companies fail, well... possession is 9/10's of the law? The govt could potentially just claim the oil...

I dunno Was just an idea that occurred to me. Seems like it would be a possible solution to the current problem.

Last edited by Trigga*happY : 22nd April 2020 at 14:05.
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Old 22nd April 2020, 14:08     #657
Trigga*happY
 
Sorry, morphine sucks Occasionally, I struggle to get my ideas across understandably!
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Old 22nd April 2020, 14:22     #658
Trigga*happY
 
Heavily debt burdened oil companies need urgent cashflow. They also need an outlet for oil at a negative value.

Instead of paying US govt, they trade shares in exchange for oil storage. The extra storage ability hopefully keeps the stocks from falling, as it can be moved to the june/july market.

If company stays afloat, then US govt rides the rising stock prices, and benefits from the oil sold at a later date.

If company still looks to sink, govt offers shareholders a parachute to bail out softly, and remains sole shareholder of the oil company. Then at least if the US public have to bail out the oil companies, it is still beneficial to them, as it is retaining an SOE, not just bailing out rich oil tycoons.

I think that's what I meant
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Old 22nd April 2020, 15:02     #659
Know me.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trigga*happY

The US SPR has a capacity of around 750m barrels. Last time I looked (admittedly a month ago), they were running at approximately 600m barrels stored. So with an offer of storage for 150m barrels to the heavily debt burdened companies, in exchange for shares in the company the US can effectively offer 'loans' to these companies without shelling out any $$ at all. The oil is held until prices rebound, and sold off at reasonable rates.
https://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html 635m on April 17th. I thought trump ordered it to be "filled up" already. Its hard to know if its already be bought and paid for but not delivered.

https://www.energy.gov/articles/depa...purchase-crude.

"the Department of Energy (DOE) will fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to its maximum capacity by purchasing 77 million barrels of American-made crude oil"

"Recognizing the private sector needs time to plan for delivery logistics, the solicitation is for crude oil to be delivered in May and June; although, early April deliveries are encouraged."

These are the contracts that are fucked, if it all went ahead it made no difference. Considering that the daily US consumption is 20 mbpd its not suprising.
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Old 22nd April 2020, 15:18     #660
Know me.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trigga*happY

Instead of paying US govt, they trade shares in exchange for oil storage. The extra storage ability hopefully keeps the stocks from falling, as it can be moved to the june/july market.
You dirty commie

Yeah perfectly good solution to me to help out the smaller producers but not the american way. They might broker deals to sell smaller companies to larger.

The real problem is that there is no storage, the SPR is "relatively" small and at capactity. If there was storage anywhere available then surely it would have been filled up by purchases of the just closed contracts.
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Old 22nd April 2020, 17:06     #661
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...21-p54ltg.html

YOu've got to be joking, there is no way on earth I'm installing a closed-source contact-and-location tracking app by the Australian government.
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Old 22nd April 2020, 17:45     #662
Nich
 
Quote:
The government has said it's taking only a very limited amount of personal data from app users: your name, mobile number, postcode and an age range.
Government will have association data on all citizens. Surely that data will never be abused to shut down any anti-government sentiment in the conception stage.

Still, if you don't download the app no doubt they will blame you for the extended lockdown and further damage to economy. You will be blamed for everything that goes wrong as soon as the app is released. because this marvellous app is how we get Australia back to work safely.
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Old 22nd April 2020, 21:06     #663
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
I don't give a fuck. Warrantless wiretapping, data retention, Censusfail, Robodebtfail, MyHealthRecordfail, there is literally no organisation public or private in the world that I trust near my data LESS than the Australian government.
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Old 23rd April 2020, 10:13     #664
MadMax
Stuff
 
The only viable technology solution for contact tracing I've seen was the Bluetooth card idea that logs to itself other detected cards. The data is then retrieved from the card if you test positive. The card has a limited life and no personal data is stored.
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Old 23rd April 2020, 10:27     #665
Nich
 
https://twitter.com/TankerTrackers/s...810751491?s=20

Quote:
It's actually 24 VLCC supertankers carrying a combined total of 50.4 million barrels, which spread out over 48 days of exports amounts to 1.05 million barrels per day in departures.

Everything you see between Madagascar and Brazil is due to arrive in May.



This is like one of those horror movies where the murderer kills the person with an excess of what they love. In this case, US loves oil and is well stocked, but Saudi Arabia is sending more and more oil anyway.
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Old 23rd April 2020, 13:02     #666
Know me.
 
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/2...stigation.html

Great explaination by CME group CEO explaining what happened with the price of oil.

The US SPR top up thats been refered to in above posts DIDN't go ahead.
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Old 27th April 2020, 21:48     #668
crocos
 
And because of course it's required, PM Ardern and Dr Bloomfield were required to comment by the media. Fortunately neither the media nor A&B went full retard about it, though Tova came close.
https://youtu.be/RJ5b8_JQeJM?t=2065
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Old 27th April 2020, 23:04     #669
BoyWonder
 
Tova was bang on really. Jacinda Ardern and Ashley Bloomfield have done well but they don't get why journalists ask the stupid questions - because there are stupid people out there. They scoff instead of trying to lift the lowest common denominator.
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Old 28th April 2020, 08:05     #670
Savage
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
I don't give a fuck. Warrantless wiretapping, data retention, Censusfail, Robodebtfail, MyHealthRecordfail, there is literally no organisation public or private in the world that I trust near my data LESS than the Australian government.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...27-p54nn9.html
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Old 28th April 2020, 16:39     #671
fixed_truth
 
Apparently in these desperate times queing up for 30+mins for McDonald's is a meaningful family activity.
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Old 28th April 2020, 16:46     #672
Lightspeed
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoyWonder
Tova was bang on really. Jacinda Ardern and Ashley Bloomfield have done well but they don't get why journalists ask the stupid questions - because there are stupid people out there. They scoff instead of trying to lift the lowest common denominator.
Nah, fuck her and that side of the media. It's in their interest to maintain a low common denominator, to reinforce the idea of the stupid proles who must be pandered to (while actually pandering to a whole other demographic). Else Tova would be looking for work.

If we were panicked, it might be different. But we're not.
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Old 28th April 2020, 23:19     #673
Lightspeed
 
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Old 29th April 2020, 05:57     #674
crocos
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoyWonder
Tova was bang on really. Jacinda Ardern and Ashley Bloomfield have done well but they don't get why journalists ask the stupid questions - because there are stupid people out there. They scoff instead of trying to lift the lowest common denominator.
You think that people that stupid actually listen to the news?
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Old 29th April 2020, 06:13     #675
crocos
 
Another tracking site for summary numbers: https://coronachart.me/
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Old 29th April 2020, 11:46     #676
Nich
 
The biggest misconception is that this is a respiratory illness. We've rushed to get ventilators and hospitals can't make enough oxygen, but many "asymptomatic" cases have blood clot complications (amputations, stroke) and symptoms more like altitude sickness.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020...vid-19-mystery

Avoid this virus as best as you can. Even when the government caves to economic pressure and says it's ok to go back to work (if you're still employed), go on holiday, and shop till you drop (if you have any money left). That will be the start of the 2nd wave of infection.
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Old 29th April 2020, 12:06     #677
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by crocos
You think that people that stupid actually listen to the news?
Unfortunately stupid people post to the Internet and send text messages to their friends and family. I figure that having Jacinda and Ashley shoot down some stupid questions is intellectual vaccination for the people who DO listen to the news. Get the rejection of the stupid shit into people's brains before they're contacted by the stupid people.
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Old 29th April 2020, 18:02     #678
DrTiTus
HENCE WHY FOREVER ALONE
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
Avoid this virus as best as you can. Even when the government caves to economic pressure and says it's ok to go back to work (if you're still employed), go on holiday, and shop till you drop (if you have any money left). That will be the start of the 2nd wave of infection.
If it puts your mind at ease from your media induced fear and panic, check out the demographics of the fatalities: https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

Keep in mind the part that says: "Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%" at the bottom of the page.

Unless you're already sick and dying, or an unhealthy fat bastard that wheezes from a set of stairs, I wouldn't even worry about contracting it. I'd volunteer to get it myself if it meant everyone would stop treating it like "airborne certain death" and things would go back to normal once I recovered. Alas, fat chance of that. Too many people became instant germaphobes, and are now mentally scarred and are treating everyone like lepers.

Good work reacting and responding to a new virus that may have been much worse than it turned out to be. But time to get real and acknowledge we can stop worrying nearly as much as we did. We know how to manage something serious, great, a lesson learned, but this was not "the big one". Stop treating it like it is or was.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackadder
Everyone's dying of the plague!

Oh yes, that's what they claim, those peasants. Any excuse to get off a decent day's work.
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Old 29th April 2020, 18:57     #679
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrTiTus
But time to get real and acknowledge we can stop worrying nearly as much as we did. We know how to manage something serious, great, a lesson learned, but this was not "the big one". Stop treating it like it is or was.
What Covid-19 has taught us is that we are totally unprepared for the big one. Fifty five thousand people and counting have died in the richest most powerful country in the history of the world. We've commenced an economic crunch that will only equal the Great Depression of the 1920s if we're really really lucky.

For a virus that only kills 0.9% of the general population.
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Old 29th April 2020, 19:22     #680
Lightspeed
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
Unfortunately stupid people post to the Internet and send text messages to their friends and family. I figure that having Jacinda and Ashley shoot down some stupid questions is intellectual vaccination for the people who DO listen to the news. Get the rejection of the stupid shit into people's brains before they're contacted by the stupid people.
Opportunity cost is a consideration. Attending to the stupidest thing we're capable of is only sometimes the most cost-effective way to spend our time. That practically any statement following "but some New Zealanders..." can be true isn't justification for trawling the mud.
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