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10th February 2008, 18:36 | #1 |
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NZ Housing boom over?
Well I am reading more and more articles and sales stats are showing now that the housing market is now entering a downward cycle.
Be a good time to buy in 3-4 months I reckon, anyone else got views on this? http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/s...ectid=10491505 http://www.stuff.co.nz/4390549a13.html
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"This doesn't happen to me often, Honest!!" |
10th February 2008, 18:39 | #2 |
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buy property in lagos
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10th February 2008, 19:06 | #3 | |
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Overall trend is increasing demand. Limited amount of land. Overall trend is very limited increase in supply (most increase would be from further away from the city). Therefore any drop in housing prices in Auckland is likely to be temporary - overall the prices will rise. Will housing be cheaper in 3-4 months than now? Maybe. |
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10th February 2008, 19:27 | #4 | |
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So what Markh said |
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10th February 2008, 20:20 | #5 |
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a dip in prices so now rents go up
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10th February 2008, 20:54 | #6 |
I have detailed files
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Tell this to the 1000's of people that have to settle on titles out at Pegasustown...
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10th February 2008, 21:14 | #7 |
HENCE WHY FOREVER ALONE
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My rent hasn't gone up in ages, *takes advantage of underpriced living*
*and also touches wood* *not that wood*
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Finger rolling rhythm, ride the horse one hand... |
10th February 2008, 21:24 | #8 |
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NZ Housing boom will continue for much longer because:
Those generous tax breaks. Economy hasn't tanked yet. Housing NZ guaranteed rents for property investors. Mortgages are still easily serviceable. No capital gain tax etc. Everyone in NZ is a property expert and loves investing it Sales are still going strong, prices are still high..NZ media is just bored. We need a really big economic shock to see prices coming down.. |
10th February 2008, 21:46 | #9 | |
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sure some months there will be less sales, or the average sale price will be lower, but you cant always take that as a guide of the overall market. what was the weather like? how many real expensive houses were sold? etc it doesnt take too much to affect stats ... sure there is a small slowdown currently...houses may be taking 10 days longer to sell...but from what i can see they are still more expensive than a year ago. if you are thinking about buying a house, there is no time like the present. whenever that may be. it is best to ignore the media. a year ago they were predicting a slowdown...and also countless times in the last few decades...but houses were only $50k then, lol if you were thinking about buying a house 4 months ago and didnt, do you regret it now because you have to pay more? if you are thinking about buying now, do you not think you'll regret it in 4 months if you dont? trends are more likely to continue than to change. and houses are more expensive now than they were a year ago. thats all you need to consider. imho.
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10th February 2008, 22:04 | #10 |
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Change of Government could bring a change in policy in freeing up new land for new housing developments. If that happens, the prices will be affected.
Housing affordability in NZ will be an election issue. |
10th February 2008, 22:11 | #11 |
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^^ and do you believe the nats will do anything that will negatively affect the value of our more affluent citizens property portfolios?
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"Take four red capsules, in ten minutes-take two more. Help is on the way." |
10th February 2008, 22:16 | #12 | |
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The 'wealthy' property investors are in the minority. The majority of people in NZ either dont own a home, or cant afford the mortgage payments to get into one. They outweigh those who made the fat profits on the housing market going up, along side the interest rates. Last edited by Ard Righ : 10th February 2008 at 22:18. |
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10th February 2008, 22:51 | #13 | |
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If ignorance is bliss, why is everyone so unhappy these days? |
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10th February 2008, 23:02 | #14 |
Beaner!
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I think you'll see more mortgagee sales and a correction on overvalued houses, perhaps a mild overall correction, but that's about it unless there's a major global issue.
About time we lost our "one of the highest interest rates in the world" claim to fame though :/ |
10th February 2008, 23:18 | #15 | |
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the top 20% have always been nationals focus, always will be. screw the poor (or only average).
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"Take four red capsules, in ten minutes-take two more. Help is on the way." |
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11th February 2008, 00:15 | #16 |
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Prices can't go up forever, anyone who thinks that isn't thinking very hard.
And also anyone who'd looked at the sharemarket in the last couple of months will know that the whole world is heading downwards right now. |
11th February 2008, 08:23 | #17 |
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Interesting comments so far, seems most think that prices will remain stable.
I partially agree with that sentiment, I don't see property prices crashing but I do see a correction in prices downward slightly. Personally we are looking at properties on the North Shore in Auckland, Torbay, Browns Bay, Albany(as my partners family live around there) and its pretty hard to find anything decent for under 450-500k, we have around 50k deposit. We are both on reasonable incomes but would be cutting it too tight trying to service a 400k mortgage at the current interest rates, pretty sure alot of other people out there are in the same situation!
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"This doesn't happen to me often, Honest!!" |
11th February 2008, 09:06 | #18 | |
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11th February 2008, 09:34 | #19 | |
Robosexual
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11th February 2008, 10:14 | #20 |
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Well, my thinking on the housing crisis is that it has two causes:
1) The "buy now, pay later" generation's inability to save a deposit of 20%. Or to save at all. They spend most of their time buying crap they don't need and then paying it, and its interest off. Come to buy a house, and they just won't be able to pay the interest payments cos they are aiming for a 90-100% mortgage. Oh, and of couse they want to buy their 3rd home straight away. Sorry fellas, buy the crappy 1 bedroom shithouse and sit on it for a couple of years pay off the mortgage as best you can so you have enough equity to get the 2nd house which is better, repeat until you actually have the house you want. 2) Baby boomers not selling their house, but instead buying a 2nd or 3rd house as rentals or property investment to supplement their retirement. They have been freehold for ages, and banks are falling over themselves to lend to these low risk people. This has the unfortunate effect of raising house prices so that first time buyers just can't affored a decent house at all. I don't believe that interest rates are going to drop for the next 3 or so years, and because of that more people will be hitting hard times when refixing their mortgage or trying to afford a house. Therefore the market will slow then stagnate in the immediate future until interest rates will drop. However this will only really happen when a resession comes along, so that means even more people will not be able to afford house payments, so the market will still be subdued even as interest rates are dropping. Only once the economy starts picking up after the resession will house prices start rising again. I reckon this will be in 7-12 years time.
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11th February 2008, 11:29 | #21 |
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Growth is dropping prices are not so much. In Hamilton prices have been increasing by constantly, even though the amount of increase is slowing.
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11th February 2008, 11:46 | #22 | |
Beaner!
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11th February 2008, 15:50 | #23 |
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Jodi you for got the Kiwi saver plan, So now if you are about to buy your first home you can use your kiwi saver scheme. So all those people that can't save and can't get a house. Now can. Demand is greater than supply so house prices go up again.
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11th February 2008, 16:35 | #24 |
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I've been bitted by a house price crash before (London in late 80's / early 90's), bought a flat for 64k ukp, had to sell it at 50k 4 years later. Today that flat is worth around 200k. When interest rates go above 15% I'll worry about a crash in the prices here, until then the rate of increase may slow, but prices are going to keep going up and up ihmo.
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11th February 2008, 16:39 | #25 | |
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11th February 2008, 16:46 | #26 | |
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http://www.nbr.co.nz/home/column_art...cname=Property in january "Wellington price growth slipped to 10.6 percent from 11.4 percent" in december 10.6% is still phenomenal growth per year...whichever way you look at it.
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11th February 2008, 17:37 | #27 | |
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Nat Banks monthly property focus: http://www.nbnz.co.nz/economics/publ...ocus_Jan08.pdf Page 11 has stats based on REINZ data and they show Wgtn house prices grew approx 1.4 % in the previous 12 months. Slightly less then QV's figures. And of course taking into account inflation of ~2.5% (yeah right inflation only 2.5%!! thats another thread right there) and house prices have depreciated in real terms in the last 12 months in Wgtn, based on REINZ data. |
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11th February 2008, 18:58 | #28 |
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youre right stats can be used to show almost anything
but 1.4% does not sound right to me personally. our GV went up 18% from september 2006 to sept 2007. i expect something in the range of 8% to 12% by the time sept 2008 comes around. i also keep an eye on the "property press", and although houses do seem to stay advertised a bit longer, the prices seem higher by more than 1.4% from a year ago.
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11th February 2008, 22:13 | #29 |
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SELL!!!!!!!SELL!!!!!!!!!SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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11th February 2008, 22:58 | #30 | |
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12th February 2008, 09:13 | #31 | |
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Will be interesting to hear what Clarky has to say in her speech to parliament today, more land for housing. Absolute zip about gains tax being implemented. |
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12th February 2008, 12:19 | #32 |
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http://www.stuff.co.nz/blogs/showmet...ng-dont-panic/ Good article from Bernard Hickey
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Wellington -it's just better |
12th February 2008, 12:41 | #33 |
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lol @ scare mongering article
frankly i cant see prices dropping by 30%...but the article suggests houses are 30% overvalued. actually, i cant even see the overall market dropping by even 10%...although some individual houses obviously do.
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12th February 2008, 12:49 | #34 | |
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Last edited by Omegakai : 12th February 2008 at 12:51. |
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12th February 2008, 13:33 | #35 |
Bobo Fettish
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A lot of houses in auckland are embarrassingly overpriced.
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12th February 2008, 13:45 | #36 | |
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I'm just curious about whether they're actually going at the insane prices or if it's just greedy owners who've been lied to by their agents, thinking if they wait they'll eventually find a stupid enough buyer. |
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12th February 2008, 14:32 | #38 |
get to da choppa
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They have been trialling, or talking about a trial for this in Queenstown for years now? So I guess this 'announcment' is just to say it will be for the whole country now.
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12th February 2008, 14:46 | #39 | |
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is the wind either a hurricane or perfect calm? is the ocean either high tide or low tide? perhaps the current state of things is just where things are supposed to be? and perhaps in the last few years nothing was out of balance either? reality doesnt necessarily have to be either or.
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12th February 2008, 15:21 | #40 |
Up Unt At Dem!
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hmm you sound like purple-kush
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