Labour leadership contest

[Ab]

Back in the early 2000s my sole criterion for being the All Blacks centre was "can you tackle Stirling Mortlock?" That was it. Because if you couldn't there was no point being there.

The criterion for being the Labour leader in 2013 must be "can you tackle John Key?" That's it. Because if you can't there's no point being there.

Robertson can't tackle John Key. Fat, bespectacled, gay, childless, a political insider who went straight from student union politics to the usual Labour checklist of the United Nations, Helen Clark’s staff, and the Labour front bench, and who has never had a private-sector job or run a business in his life. He’s going up against the guy who grew up in a state house with an immigrant solo mother and who is now a self-made multimillionaire family man with houses in Parnell and Maui and who drinks Steinlager from the Bledisloe Cup in the All Blacks changing room. Next to that story the fat gay student politician from Helen Clark’s office looks about as appealing as cancer.

But on Planet Labour he's an awesome candidate because he can appeal to both the rainbow faction (he's gay!) and the union faction (he's a former student unionist!). And most importantly, he's not David "Silent T" Cunliffe! Because if there's one person the Labour MPs fucking hate with a passion, it's David Cunliffe.

[aR Que]

but NZ is ready for a gay PM, fuck the need for competence, we need equal outcomes!

[Ab]

Silent T is in.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11114489

[chubby]

and fortunate for labour that is....
he's the only one of their peeps who sees that labour needs to regain some 'workers party' credentials,not just present a slightly emasculated take on the same neo-liberal crap being pushed as the center.

cant imagine giving them a vote till serious changes have been made,but this is at least a chance to wave byebye to the 80's.

[Ab]

Cunliffe seems to be the favourite among the broader Labour membership, but he also seems to be hated with a passion by the Labour caucus.

[ZoSo]

Radio clips sound hilarious.

[fidgit]

Originally Posted by pxpx

Labour peeps, do you think Cunliffe can actually lead a successful election campaign? Don't give me the optimistic rose-tinted glasses version, be honest.

What's his relationship with Norman like?

I do not.

I don't think anyone can lead the Labour party as it currently stands to a win over the National party*. If Cunliffe is going to win the next election he needs to beat the party into a shape where, as a traditional Labour supporter, I feel like they actually have a vision for the country, and the where-withal to carry it through without self-destructing at each other.

I say this as a life-long Labour/Greens supporter.
If an election was held tomorrow, I would probably just not bother voting.


*by contrast it's always felt like this National party is a cohesive unit. You actually feel like Key has the backing, and the backs, of his ministers.

[crocos]

With some of the BS the Nats have pulled there's a large chance that Labour could win, but not because of Labour, but because they're NOT National.

[adonis]

Originally Posted by pxpx

Labour peeps, do you think Cunliffe can actually lead a successful election campaign? Don't give me the optimistic rose-tinted glasses version, be honest.

What's his relationship with Norman like?

I think he would slay Key given how much the electorate is turning on National (about time) atm.

His relationship with the Greens is one where he treats them as subordinates, which is great as far as his ability to win an election is concerned.

I was totally correct in how I thought Shearer would pan out, he was inexperienced politically and only got in to maintain Labour's status quo, Cunliffe is the anti-establishment figure (why he lost to Shearer). Linking him to the Clark era is completely bullshit. He's his own man, he's savvy and both his public and private sector experience may not make an impressive sound bite, but the ability he must have to have obtained it is and will come through especially well when discussing the big issue of the moment, the economy.

[fixed_truth]

Originally Posted by crocos

With some of the BS the Nats have pulled there's a large chance that Labour could win, but not because of Labour, but because they're NOT National.

In the eyes of the general public, pretty much. Though unless Cunliffe is Leader there's little chance of Labour winning (Robertson is a limp dick). Imo of course.

Also I agree with this re: hated by caucus - The challenge for him would be to overcome the things that make him a magnet for mockery in sections of his own caucus as well as opponents. A surge in the polls under his leadership would do it."

[chubby]

Originally Posted by fidgit

*by contrast it's always felt like this National party is a cohesive unit. You actually feel like Key has the backing, and the backs, of his ministers.

his co-workers are desperately grateful for his presence,for some pretty obvious reasons.look at the polls,look at peoples response to policy....john is ALL they've got.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by adonis

the electorate is turning on National (about time) atm.

Originally Posted by chubby

his co-workers are desperately grateful for his presence,for some pretty obvious reasons.look at the polls

Fairfax Ipsos poll August 2013

Party support
National 48.3% (-1.1%)
Labour 31.6% (-0.3%)
Green 12.3% (+1.1%)
NZ First 2.8% (-0.4%)
Maori
United Future
ACT
Mana
Conservative 1.4% (-0.2%)

Country Direction
Right 58.0% (-1.2%)
Wrong 42.0% (+1.6%)

Roy Morgan poll early August 2013

Party Support
National 44.0% (-7.0%)
Labour 34.0% (+5.0%)
Green 14.0% (+4.0%)
NZ First 3.0% (-1.0%)
Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
United Future 0.0% (nc)
ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Country Direction
Right 58.0% (-0.5%)
Wrong 30.0% (nc)
Can’t Say 12.0% (+0.5%)

One News Colmar Brunton poll July 2013

Party Support
National 46.0% (-3.0%)
Labour 33.0% (nc)
Green 14.0% (+5.0%)
ACT 0.7% (+0.4%)
Maori 1.6% (+0.3%)
United Future 0.2%(-0.5%)
Mana 0.2% (-1.0%)
NZ First 3.3% (-0.3%)
Conservative 0.6% (-1.1%)

Economic Outlook
Better 52% (-3%)
Worse 28% (+2%)
Same 20% (+1%)

[Ab]

Originally Posted by fidgit

I don't think anyone can lead the Labour party as it currently stands to a win over the National party.

But... it wouldn't take much for Labour + Greens + NZ First + Maori Party to win an election against National alone. So the question becomes "what sort of concessions would the new Labour leader have to make to the Greens and Winston on policy in order to buy their support, and would those concessions be palatable to middle New Zealand?"

[Ab]

Originally Posted by crocos

With some of the BS the Nats have pulled there's a large chance that Labour could win, but not because of Labour, but because they're NOT National.

Polls so far suggest that while people care about the GCSB bill, they don't care very much. That is to say the majority either don't care, trust the government, or are only slightly worried. Slightly worried people don't change their votes.

[fixed_truth]

David Cunliffe has a dream (video)

[Ab]

And not a very original one.





OH NOES WHICH ONE DO I CHOOSE

[ZoSo]

[leadinjector]

Originally Posted by Ab

And not a very original one.





OH NOES WHICH ONE DO I CHOOSE

and the lols begin

[Delphinus]

Originally Posted by crocos

With some of the BS the Nats have pulled there's a large chance that Labour could win, but not because of Labour, but because they're NOT National.

[fidgit]

Originally Posted by Ab

But... it wouldn't take much for Labour + Greens + NZ First + Maori Party to win an election against National alone. So the question becomes "what sort of concessions would the new Labour leader have to make to the Greens and Winston on policy in order to buy their support, and would those concessions be palatable to middle New Zealand?"

Haha Winston as King Maker again? Oh Christ D:

I hadn't realised that the Greens were still making ground (14% in one of those polls lol). I'm not buying it that any of the things that National have done recently have really hurt them. The GCSB doesn't seem to have hurt them significantly, and if that doesn't I think John's probably fine up to and perhaps including punching a baby.

Baby was probably on welfare anyway.

-edit-
Also! Remember that no one votes on what a party does in years 1 and 2 - it's only what they do in the 6 months before the election that will really hurt them. So they just need to pull an All Blacks-not-handing-France-any-penalties and guard the line for that last stint and Labour can't win.

[fixed_truth]

Native Affairs – Labour Panel

[adonis]

Originally Posted by Ab

Polls that support what I've said

Yes, average National support is down in early august and the combined Green/Labour vote is actually higher than National for 2 out of 3 of those polls. As you said, it wouldn't take much for National to get kicked out, and it mainly comes down to:

A. Getting more people to vote. Low voter turnout favours the right and the so-called "landslide" that National got last time had more to do with a lack of options on the left. Cunliffe actually has what it takes to do this.

B. Cashing in on the fact that the electorate's perception of Key is changing.

The biggest issue for Cunliffe is his own Ego. His American style speeches are a total turn-off for a NZ market.

[Rince]

The country doesn't trust what Key says, but they still trust him to run the country:

[chubby]

kiwiblog is pretty hilarious over this.
i dont want to sound like a labour fan...but the right sound scared-
farrar is digging and being snide about cunliffes residential addy,whereas shonkey and blinglish...well, they're good men.its not important where they live in relation to their electorate.
his education and work experience make him unskilled,where a currency trader and a farmers son with a commerce degree are perfectly placed.... the list goes on.

hey, you guys keep up the homophobia.it probably wont matter in the end.

[spigalau]

^ So yet another smug rich prick is trying to take over the role of leader of the LP from another forgetful rich prick ?

It used to be that the LP was the party of choice for the common NZ'r, they seem to be quite disconnected now.

[pxpx]

chubby you're a bit of a loller, reading right wing blogs and getting all high and mighty when they meet your expectations of being.. well, right wing.

Anyways, I'm pretty sure I could handle a Labour+NZ First or Labour+Maori coalition in power, with Cunliffe in charge.

What I am really worried about is a Labour+Greens+NZF+Maori clusterfuck getting power.

[ZoSo]

To be fair you can't expect a green voting labour apologist to worry about a possible blatant lie on the day and event that a truely left leaning (lol) MP announces his run for the leadership of the Labour party. It's all about Key.

[chubby]

no.its all about your economic model.

and your insistance that your 'center', against all evidence otherwise,inhabits some sort of high ground.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by chubby

kiwiblog is pretty hilarious over this.
i dont want to sound like a labour fan...but the right sound scared-
farrar is digging and being snide about cunliffes residential addy,whereas shonkey and blinglish...well, they're good men.its not important where they live in relation to their electorate.

It was more that Cunliffe was pitching his address as some sort of sacrifice. Hell, his family was so stressed by his wife’s choice to breastfeed her child that the only thing he could do was buy her a house in Herne Bay so she didn’t have to commute so far.

Median house price in Herne Bay: $2 million.

Doing it tough all right. Party of the working people and all that.

[chubby]

the downtrodden are usually too busy to fight for themselves.
its a hollow criticism that,yet again,ignores basic reality about who gets ahead.

[fixed_truth]

Some good praise from Duncan Garner

I’m going to say it right now, I reckon Cunliffe is going to win this. Because he can articulate a vision and he can articulate an economic vision and it is always about the economy stupid. It is always about the economy when it comes to winning politics. I think he has the ability to reach out - yes a lot of people think he’s smarmy and arrogant and unusual at times but I tell you what, you don’t always have to like your political leader in a caucus you have to respect him for doing the job and I think Cunliffe has probably got the inside running.

[Golden Teapot]

Originally Posted by Rince

The country doesn't trust what Key says, but they still trust him to run the country

I sure as hell don't completely trust anyone; complete trust which implicitly includes in all possible situations is a hurdle way too far.

[Baxton]

Originally Posted by Golden Teapot

I sure as hell don't completely trust anyone; complete trust which implicitly includes in all possible situations is a hurdle way too far.

I think just about everything that comes out of his gob at the moment is lies. I wonder how many people that voted on the poll share that opinion.

I would vote in an instant to replace him but....o look.....no opposition. Fuck you labour.

fuck you.

[Saladin]

Originally Posted by fidgit

Haha Winston as King Maker again? Oh Christ D:

Key's already backing away from his hard line on working with Winston, saying that if they're open to a coalition they'll announce it before the election.

[Ab]

Labour leader hopeful Grant Robertson was dealt a blow in south Auckland today when members of the religious and socially conservative faction of the party came out in force to make it clear they don't like that he is gay and won't be voting for him.

The unions will play a big part in deciding the next Labour leader, but many in south Auckland have another union – with God. And that wasn't working well for Mr Robertson.

"I don't like gay people. I don't like him," says one person 3 News spoke to.

"I don't like gay people. I don't want to see him as the Prime Minister," says another.

YOU CHEEKY DARKIES

[ilk]

It's a fucking embarrassment that in 2013 his sexuality is even an issue. Way to suck, idiots.

[xor]

^^Doesn't understand the culture of South A.K.

[fidgit]

Originally Posted by ilk

It's a fucking embarrassment that in 2013 his sexuality is even an issue. Way to suck, idiots.

It's not, for most New Zealanders. Polynesian immigrants though...

[Golden Teapot]

Nasty people, evil party; at least it's all out in the open for people to see what they're sign-up for.

[CCS]

I don't know that Labour are evil, but certainly nasty. And inept. The Greens on the other hand are definitely evil.