The 2023 General Election thread

[Lightspeed]

Luxon's press conference hijacked by heckler

[DrTiTus]

A missed opportunity - Luxon could have persuaded him to vote National, but instead this man remains on the fence.

[xor]

That's Brian Tamaki's mob. A bunch of them harassed Hipkins and co at the Otara markets a couple weeks back.

It's because of people like Tamaki's mob that politicians will all employ private security detail and will rarely make public appearances.

Once upon a time you'd be able to see Piggy Muldoon walking along Takapuna beach with his shirt off walking his doggo, or David Lange getting drunk AF at Onehunga Mangere football club. Shit, i even saw Don Brash in Mission Bay talking to randoms without getting accosted at the height of his Orewa speech.

[blynk]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

A missed opportunity - Luxon could have persuaded him to vote National, but instead this man remains on the fence.

That definitely deserves a standing ovation.

[Ab]

Roy Morgan poll out this morning. Key results: if election were held today, Nat+ACTwould have a clear majority; Labour would get hammered and drop from 65 seats to 30.

[Lightspeed]

It's interesting how many ACT MPs are quailing at the prospect of actually being in government.

[Ab]

Labour reaction: we're gonna have to strawman the shit out of this

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...GQS7A5WIWMLMA/

[Lightspeed]

ACT has lost another candidate just weeks out from the election

It means five ACT candidates have now withdrawn in recent weeks — Elaine Naidu-Franz, Darren Gilchrist, Scott Boness, Anto Coates and now Miles.

[fixed_truth]

Not surprising. ACT is basically just David Seymour saying ridiculous shit to stay in the news cycle and race baiting uninformed pakeha males into voting for the boomer party.

[blynk]

Labours only hope is for both the Warriors and ABs come out on top in the NRL & RWC.

That will give a country and endorphin boost that would benefit the current government.

Unfortunately after yesterday's 2 performances, even that is not looking good for labour

[Lightspeed]

I swear we've got some deal with the devil going on with the All Blacks.

[Lightspeed]

If Luxon has to face any more pressure like this morning's interview, I gotta wonder if he doesn't go the same way as Muller before the election.

National's gotta be working hard to minimise any similar scenarios.

[Lightspeed]

Luxon walks off amid questions about National's tax plan

[Ab]

Dressed up as a pirate on Sunday, Luxon drew his sword, leaned in, and prepared to take a swipe.

It's like this is all just theatre

[blynk]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

Luxon walks off amid questions about National's tax plan

Its hellishly not costed out, and I think they are starting to realise that they weren't going to have an easy ride of just focusing on "we aren't Labour"

When they finally got pushed over the edge, it seems that Willis has said the costings will come out after the updated treasury figures tomorrow. Which doesn't make sense. It should have been costed on what they knew and if the shit has hit the fan they can adjust it.

But I believe they will use these updated figures to blame it all back on Labour rather than their numbers not adding up

[blynk]

Originally Posted by blynk

Labours only hope is for both the Warriors and ABs come out on top in the NRL & RWC.

That will give a country and endorphin boost that would benefit the current government.

Unfortunately after yesterday's 2 performances, even that is not looking good for labour

Oops, I misjudged the length of the RWC. The elections will be the day before the QFs

[Cyberbob]

He's been coasting off of being the opposition the entire time he's been leading the party. Has no idea what it means to be in charge and responsible, and answerable to something other than to the board of an airline.

[Ab]

They’re both the same, episode 4825285:

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/nationals...-more-scrutiny

[Ab]

enmergenation commenceth

[Ab]

New Roy Morgan poll results out (scraped from KB):

Party Vote

Labour 26.8% (-5.5% from July)
National 40.9% (+4.3%)
Greens 12.3% (+2.7%)
ACT 10.1% (-2.0%)
NZ First 4.6% (+0.5%)
Maori 3.1% (+0.4%)
TOP 0.7% (-0.8%)
New Conservatives 0.8% (+0.1%)


Seats

Labour 34 (-31 from election)
National 53 (+20)
Greens 16 (+6)
ACT 13 (+3)
Maori 4 (+2)


Governments

Labour/Green 50/120
labour/Green/Maori 54/120
National/ACT 66/120


Preferred PM

Chris Hipkins 22.5% (-1.5%)
Christopher Luxon 22.5% (+6.6%)
David Seymour 7.0% (-3.9%)
Winston Peters 4.6% (+0.3%
Chlöe Swarbrick 3.2% (+1.6%)

[Lightspeed]

I think polls are part of the process of limiting the impact voters can have on elections. The snap image misrepresents and disrupts the more organic process of making a decision.

[blynk]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

I think polls are part of the process of limiting the impact voters can have on elections. The snap image misrepresents and disrupts the more organic process of making a decision.

Probably does, but there will also be elements of allowing a smoother transition from a change of government.
If it was relatively unknown, that would surely create greater uncertainty right up to the day.

And this is assuming that the parties would still do there internal polling so they know the mood of the people.

What I think these polls don't clearly show, is the amount of undecided voters, and if 2/3s of them feel a particular direction, it could have a big affect on the outcome

[Lightspeed]

I don't think we have any certainty right now. All we know is that change is possible.

I guess polls are just one tool of manipulation. It's fascinating watching clumsy NZ Freedom's attempts to manipulate social media with vote dumping, that they've obviously paid for. Big money is not so clumsy.

I wonder at all the insight that exists into how polls and their timing shift or consolidate public opinion, the interplay of polls with policy announcements, and so on. Insight that surely gets leveraged to its full extent by those who can.

There's certainly research on the subject:

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs...31870205400106

Following the 1999 election in New Zealand, a Bill was introduced into Parliament to prevent the publication of polls during the month prior to a general election. Two parties, New Zealand First and National, feared that polls had adversely influenced their electoral performances. The claim is reviewed, the methodologies used to estimate the effects of polls on the vote discussed, and a test is applied for New Zealand in 1999. The data is from a pre- and post-election panel, the pre-election component based on rolling cross-sections estimated on a daily basis throughout the campaign. It finds evidence for a small but very significant polling effect.

[Cyberbob]

Polls create massive bias. They can be used to easily manipulate.

If I'm an undecided voter, and then see the public opinion of one party/leader is doing 10 points worse and one is doing 10 points better, that could be all I need.

Heck I'm seeing the minor parties in the polls doing really well, and it wouldn't be far fetched to think "It looks like it's not just a two horse race, maybe some real change will happen if I vote for the minor parties too"

[Lightspeed]

Luxon has the right idea fudging the specifics about any policies. He knows that's not how they're winning the election.

Spending that bankroll is.

[blynk]

Originally Posted by Cyberbob

Polls create massive bias. They can be used to easily manipulate.

If I'm an undecided voter, and then see the public opinion of one party/leader is doing 10 points worse and one is doing 10 points better, that could be all I need.

But which way, if you support the leader, do you then go, oh well, he's won, Im not voting.
Or maybe that you can see other people like him so that helps cement your positiion,
or maybe you support the leader and decide that they're a goner so theres not point,
or maybe you realise they need help so you will make sure you vote.

So which way is it biasing?

Or what about the other smaller parties? Every election you here the "if I vote for Party X, then it is a wasted vote", which means that person is not even voting for the party they want.
Would the ability to see that the party may get in and its not a wasted vote help them

[Lightspeed]

You and I might be stumped how all that plays out. You can be sure those with everything to gain aren't.

[Ab]

Hey has anyone seen Jacinda Ardern lately? I woulda thought she'd be bringing her star power to the Labour campaign.

[Savage]

Vote Compass revealed (again) that TOP were going to be the party I'd vote for .... however I've since been told they've aligned with Tamaki's mob of morons? Can anyone confirm? I'm slightly out of touch with the finer points of NZ politics lately.

After using the weighting questions to fine tune the results, NZF was top of the list of parties with which I would align Never thought I'd see the day.

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by Ab

Hey has anyone seen Jacinda Ardern lately? I woulda thought she'd be bringing her star power to the Labour campaign.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...bsent-campaign

[MadMax]

Originally Posted by Ab

Hey has anyone seen Jacinda Ardern lately? I woulda thought she'd be bringing her star power to the Labour campaign.

LOL what a funny guy. I can imagine that'd well n truly scare away the votes from certain sections of society.

[xor]

Bunch of fucking morons. No wonder trust in the govt is down when you've got two fuckwits going for the top job

[blynk]

Originally Posted by MadMax

LOL what a funny guy. I can imagine that'd well n truly scare away the votes from certain sections of society.

Agree, they will talk about how she wants to be away from the Politics, blah blah family....
But you are right, they will want to be seen as separate to Ardern.
Next election, I bet she will be back in there campaigning, similar to what Clark does

[Lightspeed]

ACT reveals seniors policy including reversing pseudoephedrine ban

Ab voting ACT again?

[Ab]

Well it is a sensible policy

[Lightspeed]

And what's suggested to be repealed never was. I kinda appreciate the own goal tho. The usual allowing ourselves to be glamoured by tough on druggies rhetoric, oops, no more relief from our genuine symptoms. lolz