|
9th September 2011, 16:21 | #1 |
Love, Actuary
|
Betting against NZ
I don't follow rugby but all the same it's plain for all to see (even me) that NZ is not going to win.
Looking at the TAB odds I think this would be a reasonable betting strategy: $10 on NZ being knocked out in the Group games (100:1 odds) $75 on NZ being knocked out in the Quarter Finals (12:1 odds) $275 on NZ being knocked out in the Semi-finals (3.5:1 odds) $640 on NZ being knocked out in the finals (4.5:1 odds) So if you like protecting somewhat against NZ not making the finals with a willingness to take a small loss and then the rest on the money-shot of them being smacked in the finals. Or losing the lot should they happen to win - but that isn't going to happen. Now I've never bet on sport before so I'm wondering if I'm missing something here? This looks like a quite low risk way of getting most of my money back or tripling it against a modest chance of losing the lot. Perhaps -10, -75, -510, -405 is less greedy and is more likely to be worth the effort of placing the bet? |
9th September 2011, 16:24 | #2 |
|
Looks good to me!
__________________
Your a homo. |
9th September 2011, 16:49 | #3 |
|
the maths seems to make sense
tell us how you go! (you damn blasphemer!) |
9th September 2011, 16:56 | #4 |
|
I like it! If you're a pessimist but want the AB's to win, you're covered either way!
|