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Old 13th October 2017, 13:49     #41
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Surely the lesson of Alliance/United Future/Maori Party is that under our current flavour of MMP going into a governing coalition with a larger party equals the death of your little party.

Seems to me the Greens are in a healthier long-term position by staying out of government and forcing whoever is to come to them for support on confidence and supply if necessary.
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Old 13th October 2017, 18:26     #42
The Edge
 
Whatever happens, ACT won't be a part of the next Government, thank God. They're a relic well past their use-by date.
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Old 13th October 2017, 18:55     #43
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
I quite like the idea of there being a libertarianish liberal party in the NZ mix. My fingers were burned by Rodney Hide's troughing though.
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Old 13th October 2017, 23:33     #44
The Edge
 
Winston has categorically said he will not work with ACT, but I don't think National really need them anyway if they end up being the next government (which, as I write this, is still up in the air as to which way Winston will go).
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Old 19th October 2017, 14:22     #45
Lightspeed
 
What about NZF + Greens, Labour for C&S?

That actually might be amazing.
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Old 19th October 2017, 19:02     #46
Cyberbob
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyberbob
What are the chances of Winnie teaming up with Labour as a "mic drop" to the status quo before he quits for good.
Totally called it.
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Old 19th October 2017, 19:15     #47
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
This a weird situation where I guess both National and Labour will be happy.
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Old 19th October 2017, 19:24     #48
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Hold on, LAB+NZF does not equal a majority. It has to be LAB+NZF+GRN. And a coalition agreement requires a vote from the entire Green membership. They could say no.
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Old 19th October 2017, 19:38     #49
CCS
Stunt Pants
 
The Greens won't say no. Come on.

It doesn't have to be a 3 way coalition does it? Winston announced a coalition between NZF and Labour. When asked about the Greens, he said it was up to Labour to negotiate with them. Greens likely are to be in Supply & Confidence.
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Old 19th October 2017, 19:43     #50
StN
I have detailed files
 
Off to Aliexpress to corner the market...
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Old 19th October 2017, 19:46     #51
ZoSo
 
Guess we can look forward to modern living issues seen around the world, that national caused, finally fixed.
That or declare a crisis every week to keep up with the norm.
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Old 19th October 2017, 20:44     #52
smudge
Ich Bin Ein Grey Lynner
 
This election was actually 2/3's a landslide to the left, if you take into account the conservative 2014 4% of the vote. If Gareth Morgan had have fucked off, it would have been close to dead even, after the specials.

It's a generational turning point too imo, the boomers have finally lost control.
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Old 19th October 2017, 21:23     #53
ZoSo
 
If by lost control, you mean just selected the government of the day and probably occupy the 4 positions jacinda caved to, yeah.. I guess so. (I'm assuming Martin is +1)
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Old 19th October 2017, 21:28     #54
Lightspeed
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZoSo
Guess we can look forward to modern living issues seen around the world, that national caused, finally fixed.
That or declare a crisis every week to keep up with the norm.
Well the worst is yet to come. It will take time to turn around various public organisations, and breath life back into NGOs. In the meantime the deprivation shock is going to play out.

Seriously though, thank fuck. I could only see National doubling down on their bullshit if they clung on.
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Old 19th October 2017, 21:43     #55
fixed_truth
 
Well fuck me. National tempered with Winston would have been a major improvement so this is marvelous. Thanks JK
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Old 20th October 2017, 06:31     #56
fixed_truth
 
It’s crazy how polarising this election became on social media. There was no weighing up the merit of each parties’ policy and going for the team that appealed to you most. It was All Blacks vs Australia, pick a team and if it’s different to mine you’re the enemy. Which is pretty sad really.

Also it’s surprising how many butthurt National supporters still don’t understand MMP. And from the reaction of English (& the young Nats) on election night, it seems National doesn’t either.
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Old 20th October 2017, 08:47     #57
Macca@Work
 
Winston telegraphed his decision in his speech.
He said he was miffed that National had ignored multiple
requests from the IMF to devalue the NZ $.
I voted National at the elections but almost voted Labour
because Ms Ahern seems like a new broom with fresh ideas and energy.
I'm normally pissed with Winston because he loves to wave the
power maker card,but this time around he genuinely wants to help the party that would bring positive solutions for the country.
As I understand it,Labour won't enforce the water tax farmers were dreading.
It would be political suicide for the Greens to not sign a coalition doc.
On the Greens,the leader was on a morning breakfast show some time ago
and I was very impressed with his knowledge on foreign and financial matters.
I can't stand the Greens normally butit almost seems like they have taken off their homespun woolen vests and put on the suit of responcibility and reasonable thinking.Interesting times for our country.
I felt sorry for Ms Turie (sp) getting dumped for her admission about the
dpb-she seems one of the few honest people in politics.
The Maori Party railed on Labour for the fact their party bombed out in the election.I thought it was Maori people who voted for Labour instead of them so isn't that the will of the people?

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Old 20th October 2017, 10:32     #58
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by smudge
It's a generational turning point too imo, the boomers have finally lost control.

Yes that's exactly what my reaction is to finding out that Winston Peters has determined the outcome of the election and has made himself Deputy Prime Minister, that NZ First controls the government, and that their main condition is restricting immigration. Totally boomers finally losing control.
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Old 20th October 2017, 11:08     #59
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by fixed_truth
It’s crazy how polarising this election became on social media. There was no weighing up the merit of each parties’ policy and going for the team that appealed to you most. It was All Blacks vs Australia, pick a team and if it’s different to mine you’re the enemy. Which is pretty sad really.
Yeah, agreed.

Quote:
Also it’s surprising how many butthurt National supporters still don’t understand MMP. And from the reaction of English (& the young Nats) on election night, it seems National doesn’t either.

I think English has handled this very well (no idea what the Young Nats have done but I presume it's something dickish, because Young Nats). The way Fairfax are reporting this is basically "Winston wanted influence over things in a manner disproportionate to NZ First's share in Parliament; English wasn't prepared to give it to him while Jacinda was"

Quote:
The price of power. Deputy Prime Minister, four ministers in Cabinet, one more outside Cabinet. And some big policy wins, including immigration.

It was a price Jacinda Ardern was prepared to pay, and one that Bill English judged as too high. Over the coming days and hours we will find out more about what finally tipped Winston Peters hand in Labour's favour. But for now we know enough. After days of hard ball negotiation, and talks that Peters dragged out till the 11th hour, Ardern just wanted it more than English.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...-new-territory
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Old 20th October 2017, 12:00     #60
Lightspeed
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
Totally boomers finally losing control.
Yep, we're down to just one now.
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Old 20th October 2017, 12:55     #61
blynk
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
The way Fairfax are reporting this is basically "Winston wanted influence over things in a manner disproportionate to NZ First's share in Parliament; English wasn't prepared to give it to him while Jacinda was"
Alhough NZF vote % compared to nationals would be worth 3 seats (of the 20 cabinet ministers). They asked for 4.
I wouldn't say that is disproportionate.
For Labour, which had a smaller %, 4 is about spot on.
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Old 20th October 2017, 14:20     #62
fixed_truth
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
I think English has handled this very well (no idea what the Young Nats have done but I presume it's something dickish, because Young Nats).
Yeah post Winston decision Bill has been really professional. Even Steven (at least I can fall back on my zoology degree) Joyce has been gracious in defeat. On election night though I think they thought it was a given that Winston would go with them, even though they tried to ruin him during the campaign.

I'm still coming to terms with Winston going with the Green albeit in a roundabout way.
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Old 20th October 2017, 15:16     #63
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Morgan Godfery this morning:

Quote:
Winston's purpose in politics is burning the world National built to the ground, from its immigration policy to its trade policy. New Zealand First voters are the people who despise National's Ruth Richardson, the finance minister responsible for opening the economy, privatising the state sector and putting thousands of people out of work in the 1990s. Key and English are scarcely better, the cosmopolitans who opened the borders, an act representing New Zealand First's ideological losses today and their voters' demographic irrelevance tomorrow.

New Zealand First voters are the people who feel as if they went to sleep in one country and woke up in another.
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Old 20th October 2017, 16:56     #64
[Malks] Pixie
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by fixed_truth
It’s crazy how polarising this election became on social media. There was no weighing up the merit of each parties’ policy and going for the team that appealed to you most. It was All Blacks vs Australia, pick a team and if it’s different to mine you’re the enemy. Which is pretty sad really.
It was indeed sad, but it was also totally predictable that it would play out this way - it's literally what the platforms were built for.
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Old 20th October 2017, 18:20     #65
Lightspeed
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by fixed_truth
Yeah post Winston decision Bill has been really professional.
He has to be. The only game National had is bullying. Out of power they're out of their depth.
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Old 20th October 2017, 19:01     #66
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
The worst thing that could possibly happen is for National to be a disciplined and strong Opposition and for the Lab-Winston-Green union to be a dysfunctional soap opera. Because that means a landslide single-party Nat victory in three years.
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Old 20th October 2017, 22:59     #67
Lightspeed
 
It might. I mean, that makes sense, but keep in mind voters.

National definitely still have some momentum. Labour can do a fantastic job, but if they can't do it in a way that the public gets, and National double down on gas-lighting the public, well that might mean only one term for Labour.

I don't see a meltdown as likely to happen, I thought things went well with Peters and Clark. It's National and NZF that don't get on.
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Old 21st October 2017, 17:05     #68
ZoSo
 
KDS participants, bemoaning polarized social media, is pretty good.
That and 50/50 going out the door day one. What a surprise. When it came down to it and the timing was right, that lot still went with experience on the day. Those fake fucks.
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Old 21st October 2017, 19:16     #69
fixed_truth
 
Quote:
Whether it was right or not, the fact of a leak from the previously tightly held talks was seen as a clear sign all was not well on the National side - and that someone was trying to spin a narrative that Labour was caving in while National stood firm and principled.

Peters - as well as English and Ardern - has since rubbished the claim. It seems the truth was quite the reverse. National had in fact offered five Cabinet posts and two ministers outside Cabinet compared with Labour's offer of four and three.

What had really been the decisive issue was National's refusal to bend on key policies - which just fed what was seen as NZ First's preference for a new government of change rather than supporting a fourth term National administration with some nipping and tucking on economic policy.

It seems National was prepared to offer more "baubles of office" but was not prepared to compromise on key economic policies including monetary policy, and major increase in spending or further curbs on foreign investment. Labour's policy - by comparison - was already moving in that direction.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...new-government

Interesting how it played out. In hindsight I suppose Labour & NZ First are closer aligned politically and so would work together better.
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Old 21st October 2017, 23:48     #70
Lightspeed
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by fixed_truth
There was no weighing up the merit of each parties’ policy and going for the team that appealed to you most.
I don't see the value of weighing up the merits of policy. How much space should be taken up by arguing water tax policy instance? How big of an impact would that really have on NZers? As big of an impact as policies regarding child poverty? Or indefinitely binding, wide ranging international trade agreements?

Policy discussions seem largely arbitrary. Mostly we learn who can whip up the most fervour, who tells the best story.

I'd rather we scrutinise the politicians themselves. Organise and reflect on what we know about them, what responsibilities they've shouldered, how they handle authority, the nature and quality of their decision making.

But clearly that's not the age of politics we live in. We just dodged a bullet, but there are plenty more rounds in the clip.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 11:13     #71
fixed_truth
 
I think it’s more important to make voting decisions based on policy because that’s what is going to directly affect people lives. There were a lot of people voting for National because they liked John Key but by doing so were voting against their own interests. Imo New Zealand is in the sorry state it is now because of personality politics (& ironically, we’ve got the opportunity to do better because of it!).

Though saying that I do think social media is a difficult platform/structure to have meaningful policy discussions. That’s partly because people have preconceived opinions that they identify with and so treat anything that counters this as an attack on them. Also because there’s so much false information and scare mongering going on. A big part of National staying in the game is because they can just spray bullshit knowing some of it will stick, which we saw a lot of during the lead up to the election (11b hole, tax scare mongering etc etc). During this election people were still parroting the line that the last Labour Govt. were poor financial managers and left a mess for National. Oh the cognitive dissonance when explained who Michael Cullen is and why he was knighted and particularly by who.

The Greens have a bill that all policy would need to be independently costed, I’d maybe like to see that extended to an independent analysis of likely outcomes.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 12:57     #72
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Bye-bye Kermadec ocean sanctuary

https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/...greens-unaware

NZ First needs to look after its donors in the industrial fisheries industry, demands cancellation of ocean sanctuary legislation.

Quote:
New Zealand's biggest ocean sanctuary is dead in the water, in a Winston Peters deal that has blindsided the Greens.

The 620,000 sq km Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary, announced by John Key at the United Nations in 2015, was hailed around the world and passed its first reading in Parliament unopposed.

NZ First, whose senior MPs are close to the fishing industry and whose campaign was partly bankrolled by players in the fishing industry, demanded Labour stop the sanctuary.

And it is understood Jacinda Ardern agreed a Labour-NZ First government would not progress legislation to establish the sanctuary in this three-year Parliamentary term.

Green Party minister Eugenie Sage said she knew nothing of the deal to stop the Kermadecs sanctuary, which she described as a "simply incredible" area and deserving protection.

She told Stuff she was not aware of the Kermadec sanctuary being killed off. "We have yet to see the coalition agreement between Labour and New Zealand First," she said. "I'm not going to comment on speculation and rumour."

But fishing industry spokesman Charles Hufflett, a shareholder in family fishing company Solander, said the industry had lobbied NZ First to stop the sanctuary.
this is all awesome of course
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Old 22nd October 2017, 15:01     #73
Macca@Work
 
Bye-bye Kermadec ocean sanctuary

https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/...greens-unaware

NZ First needs to look after its donors in the industrial fisheries industry, demands cancellation of ocean sanctuary legislation.

Isn't this going to piss the greens off?

(Please don't tell me everyone in the fishing industry is a boomer... ;>P )

Last edited by Macca@Work : 22nd October 2017 at 15:02.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 16:45     #74
joker999
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macca@Work
Bye-bye Kermadec ocean sanctuary

https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/...greens-unaware

NZ First needs to look after its donors in the industrial fisheries industry, demands cancellation of ocean sanctuary legislation.

Isn't this going to piss the greens off?

(Please don't tell me everyone in the fishing industry is a boomer... ;>P )
Hmm something wrong with that link

Quote:
Oops, sorry! It looks like we've stuffed up...
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Old 22nd October 2017, 18:09     #75
CCS
Stunt Pants
 
That's because it's a shitpost botch-up attempt at quoting Ab. Just click on the link in his post.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 23:05     #76
Lightspeed
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by fixed_truth
I think it’s more important to make voting decisions based on policy because that’s what is going to directly affect people lives.
I'm not sure what you're getting at. Do you know what policy it was National was basing their decision to ignore expert advice when they screwed around with ACC's sensitive claims service?
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Old 23rd October 2017, 09:18     #77
fixed_truth
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightspeed
I'm not sure what you're getting at. Do you know what policy it was National was basing their decision to ignore expert advice when they screwed around with ACC's sensitive claims service?

I see what you mean – when the Govt. makes changes that weren’t specific policy that they campaigned on during the election.

My understanding of how these sensitive claim changes came about is that the Govt. required ACC’s policies on administrating claims to cost less. So this was all about political ideology and as a direct result of these ideological changes was a low number of successful claims.
Maybe it’s too idealistic but it would be helpful if voters understood party’s ideological foundation (civics education?). When you know that National generally believes in less state intervention then when they cut services and under-fund health and education and sell it as necessary belt tightening then you can call bs and see it’s actually just them following the ideology and values they believe in.
Sadly these sensitive claim problems were identified two elections ago and too many people fell for the bs and brushed it aside as some unfortunate unavoidable consequence of scarcity.
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Old 23rd October 2017, 14:41     #78
Lightspeed
 
You're very generous with your view of politics, I'm more cynical.

Voters with understanding is the very opposite of what some political parties seek. Voters who vote for them is what they are after, and often given a party's fundamental political aims, informed voters will not achieve that.

This is the double-edged knife Labour and the Greens must live with. Their supporters favour being informed over being powerful. So if they get caught playing at cooking up bullshit, they get punished by their core supporters. Of course, presenting what's real and inevitably unflattering, they risk the support of the swing vote.

National's base is about power, they know what's right, they make the best decisions, they should be running the country. You just need to tell them what they want to hear, any problems can be foisted onto the vulnerable. The swing vote likes a good story too. Of course reality eventually bites which is National's challenge to staying in power. Fortunately they can't turn to authoritarianism, which is available in so many other countries.

Scarcity is one such story, despite living in an age of abundance. If scarcity appears real, it's because we've been pouring our greatest resource down the drain the last nine years: people.
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Old 23rd October 2017, 15:52     #79
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
I don't see things in such doom and gloom National eat babies terms. I think that they have done a pretty good job by most measurements, but that the time has come for some attention to be paid to the things that National has not considered high priority stuff.

I'll be the first to admit I love Bill's technocratic approach to welfare because

Spending money on at-risk kids when they are kids is way cheaper than spending money on them when they're adults

...is the sort of thing that even neoliberal rich pricks can get behind. Looking after our kids saves the taxpayer money is a leftwing goal with a rightwing justification.

My sorta kinda gut feeling on the election: English and Key have, for nine years, generally had a "no surprises" policy of telling people what they're going to do, then doing it effectively. Their priorities and decisions have been generally centrist with nods to the outer reaches of each side of the (admittedly silly) 2-dimensional spectrum we're used to thinking about. Their management has put NZ in a very very healthy position economically relative to other OECD countries. Unemployment is low, inflation is low, government debt relative to GDP is declining, and we've had govt surpluses for three years in a row and was on track for something like 2.8% of GDP by 2022. Fucking caning it economically.

But it seems like this has come at a high social cost. I'm in another country so don't have on-the-ground visibility of this stuff, but it sounds to me* as if things like homelessness, mental health, youth suicide stats are in a horrible state for a country that has been doing so well economically. If there is 1.8billion left over after government spending this year, and depressed kids killing themselves left and right, well hey maybe we shoulda spent some of that money amirite.

The worst bit is Winston's involvement. He's a populist parasite yearning for the good old days of Muldoonist state control of everything backed by a voter bloc of old white racists. I deliberately partyvoted Green this election just in case we ended up in this situation, where an inexperienced lefty leadership is being led around by the nose by an experienced Winston.

* I read Lightspeed's posts
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Old 23rd October 2017, 19:33     #80
fixed_truth
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightspeed
Scarcity is one such story, despite living in an age of abundance. If scarcity appears real, it's because we've been pouring our greatest resource down the drain the last nine years: people.
Yep scarcity is pretty much bullshit, it's actually priorities.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
My sorta kinda gut feeling on the election: English and Key have, for nine years, generally had a "no surprises" policy of telling people what they're going to do, then doing it effectively. Their priorities and decisions have been generally centrist with nods to the outer reaches of each side of the (admittedly silly) 2-dimensional spectrum we're used to thinking about. Their management has put NZ in a very very healthy position economically relative to other OECD countries. Unemployment is low, inflation is low, government debt relative to GDP is declining, and we've had govt surpluses for three years in a row and was on track for something like 2.8% of GDP by 2022. Fucking caning it economically.

But it seems like this has come at a high social cost. I'm in another country so don't have on-the-ground visibility of this stuff, but it sounds to me* as if things like homelessness, mental health, youth suicide stats are in a horrible state for a country that has been doing so well economically. If there is 1.8billion left over after government spending this year, and depressed kids killing themselves left and right, well hey maybe we shoulda spent some of that money amirite.
Yep, centrist doesn't necessarily mean what's reasonable or correct, it just means appealing to a segment of voters who have significant sway in election outcomes. It's a conundrum where political parties are restricted from making hard political decisions because they depend on centrist voters to survive. Any nods to the outer by National were only politically pragmatic tinkering around the edges rather that a commitment to change which goes against their underlying ideology. Perhaps this Govt. will have more flexibility here due to the most popular party not being in Govt. ie, they've managed to sneak in without a good chunk of the centrist vote.

Also imo it has come at a high social cost because it was shitty management. Growth comes from unfettered immigration and a runaway housing market. Unemployment stats hide measurement adjustments and thousands pushed out of the system. There's only a surplus because public sectors like education are underfunded to the brink of collapsing.

I don't see growth or surpluses as something to be valued if as a society if it's only really benefiting those at the top.
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