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Old 29th February 2016, 14:59     #121
Nothing
 
Sounds about right. The transitivity assumption doesn't hold here though, bob.
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Old 29th February 2016, 15:31     #122
BoyWonder
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyberbob
Is this too simplified?

Sanders can beat Trump.

Trump can beat Clinton.

Clinton can beat Sanders.
Nice work
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Old 29th February 2016, 16:43     #123
Deadmeat
 
So how is Trump going to beat Hillary?
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Old 29th February 2016, 16:46     #124
Nothing
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deadmeat
So how is Trump going to beat Hillary?
Well this article, which I posted earlier in the thread, gives a discussion of exactly that question.
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Old 29th February 2016, 17:02     #125
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by CCS
This is what happens when mainstream politicians jump the shark. The deadbeat also-rans start to seem appealing.
It's that they're just appealing enough to get support that makes them stay in the race.

Trump vs Rubio? I reckon Rubio would take that.

Trump vs Cruz? Cruz could possibly take that.

Trump vs Rubio vs Cruz vs Carson vs Kasich? Trump wins that EASY.
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Old 29th February 2016, 17:31     #126
Caesar
 
The one constant I always hear/read about Hillary is about her lying...
13 Minutes of Clinton lying

She must be getting tips from Donkey
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Old 29th February 2016, 19:31     #127
Cyberbob
 
Like Jeb!, the "rest" of the Republicans are entirely dependent on funding, which will dry up if their polling drops causing them to drop out. Trump isn't dependent on that, so even if he wasn't the front runner, he could last the distance by being self-funded.

Hillary and Sanders are also dependent on funding, but while Hillary's obviously hugely backed by the DNC itself, and funded by special interests, Sanders is an out-lyer like Trump, only he's using crowd funded Populares tactics to avoid being dependent on special interests.
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Old 29th February 2016, 19:55     #128
Cyberbob
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deadmeat
So how is Trump going to beat Hillary?
If I was a liberal anti-establishment anti-corruption voter, and Sanders isn't on the ballot, I might be swayed to vote for the anti-establishment, can't be bought Trump, rather than the mother of all establishment candidates, proven to flip flop depending on where the cash is coming from, Wall St Clinton.
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Last edited by Cyberbob : 29th February 2016 at 19:56.
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Old 29th February 2016, 20:40     #129
Lightspeed
 
There are also those who will vote for Sanders, or won't vote.
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Old 29th February 2016, 20:49     #130
crocos
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyberbob
out-lyer
Did you mean "outlier"?
Also thanks for the new word. "Populares" wasn't one I'd encountered before
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Old 1st March 2016, 02:10     #131
Nothing
 
John Oliver Destroys Donald Trump

20 minutes long. Remember to regularly pause it, so that you will be able to stop laughing and breathe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGc2nN9OguQ
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Old 1st March 2016, 10:47     #132
Spoon1
Mmm... Sacrilicious
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nothing
20 minutes long. Remember to regularly pause it, so that you will be able to stop laughing and breathe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGc2nN9OguQ
#makedonalddrumpfagain

LOL.
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Old 1st March 2016, 12:12     #133
Ajax
Architeuthis
 
A Trump presidency is pretty much a doomsday scenario.
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Old 1st March 2016, 12:30     #134
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
If the world were not so interconnected and if the USA were not in possession of the world's largest nuclear arsenal, I would be laughing and shouting "THE CHICKENS IS COMING HOME TO ROOST Y'ALL".
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Old 1st March 2016, 13:05     #135
Heyzoos
Robosexual
 
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...egate-targets/
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Old 1st March 2016, 14:49     #136
Cyberbob
 
I wonder if this will influence anyone tomorrow.

Clinton Foundation discloses $40M in Wall St donations
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Old 1st March 2016, 17:07     #137
CCS
Stunt Pants
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
If the world were not so interconnected and if the USA were not in possession of the world's largest nuclear arsenal, I would be laughing and shouting "THE CHICKENS IS COMING HOME TO ROOST Y'ALL".
I've no idea what his foreign policy but I suspect it's along the lines of "Ay, fuck you, I'm Donald Trump!"

Say what you want about Hilary, at least she has foreign affairs experience.
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Old 1st March 2016, 18:49     #138
The Edge
 
Chris Christie proves how much of a wuss he really is...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/0...19986?lo=ap_e3

This comment cracked me up:

Miles Pieri · Daleknetics Auditor at Church of Skarotology
So, what has Trump offered Christie? VP? Secretary of State? A bacon double cheeseburger?
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Old 1st March 2016, 20:42     #139
Lightspeed
 
Oh wow. I hadn't even begun thinking who Trump might have in his administration beyond Palin. Can you imagine? Seriously, does anyone have any tragicomic ideas?
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Old 1st March 2016, 21:25     #140
The Edge
 
The two of them are as bad as each other. I really hope tomorrow he loses a few in Super Tuesday.
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Old 2nd March 2016, 02:24     #141
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...egate-targets/
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Old 2nd March 2016, 06:08     #142
The Edge
 
Already posted by Heyzoos
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Old 2nd March 2016, 07:23     #143
Cyberbob
 
Are they doing live tallies today?
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Old 2nd March 2016, 13:09     #144
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
If he goes up against Hillary, he'll win.
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Old 2nd March 2016, 13:21     #145
Cyberbob
 
"Uhh, Bill? You're not allowed there."

Hillary Clinton’s campaign has been “reminded” not to solicit votes near polling sites after President Bill Clinton ventured into a polling location in Boston


edit: With a megaphone?
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Old 2nd March 2016, 13:48     #146
CCS
Stunt Pants
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
If he goes up against Hillary, he'll win.
What say that the RNC hates Trump so much (he's not one of the boys) that they'd rather risk putting forward Cruz or Rubio against Hilary even if it increases their chances of losing?
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Old 2nd March 2016, 13:50     #147
blynk
 
I love the news coverage of this. I noticed it in one of the earlier states.

"Clinton Wins" - 4% of votes tallied.

They must be very confident with their exit polls.
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Old 2nd March 2016, 16:04     #148
Lightspeed
 
There's still some question of whether or not Hillary will be indicted over the email business she's involved in.
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Old 2nd March 2016, 16:38     #149
fixed_truth
 
I see how Trump can win the Republican nomination but (& I might be in denial) surely there's enough voters overall that can see he would be a disaster as President?
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Old 2nd March 2016, 18:19     #150
Spoon1
Mmm... Sacrilicious
 
Quote:
We think Trump will fare best in states and congressional districts with lots of dumb-fucks.
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Old 2nd March 2016, 18:23     #151
The Edge
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyberbob
Are they doing live tallies today?
http://www.politico.com/2016-electio...ident?lo=ut_d1
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Old 3rd March 2016, 11:06     #152
Jodi
 
Read an article saying that trumps power surge is because authoritarian people support him, which is bi-partisan. Also states that most people are latent-authoritarian, and only become active when there is a trigger event, like economic downturn, influx of foreigners or moral panic.

So I fully expect Trump to be president if Sanders doesn't oppose him.
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Old 3rd March 2016, 12:31     #153
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Oh please, Sanders doesn't stand a chance. I like a fairytale as much as the next guy but anyone who thinks he can beat Clinton is DREAMING.

And Trump will beat Clinton.

I can't believe this is where we are.
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Old 3rd March 2016, 12:36     #154
Cyberbob
 
I admire Sanders's conviction to stick around until all 50 states have voted, and sure, he'll win more north states than he did in the south, but it's incredibly one sided against him at the moment unfortunately, even with all the hugely negative Clinton news at the moment.

The big issue comes in November, when Clinton can't count on Sanders votes
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Last edited by Cyberbob : 3rd March 2016 at 12:37.
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Old 3rd March 2016, 12:39     #155
blynk
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyberbob
I admire Sanders's conviction to stick around until all 50 states have voted, and sure, he'll win more north states than he did in the south, but it's incredibly one sided against him at the moment unfortunately, even with all the hugely negative Clinton news at the moment.

The big issue comes in November, when Clinton can't count on Sanders votes
Take out the super delegates, and its actually really close. That will be what gets Clinton over the line.

Its also possible that the GOP don't pick Trump as their candidate, very unlikely, but possible
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Old 3rd March 2016, 12:48     #156
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by blynk
Take out the super delegates, and its actually really close. That will be what gets Clinton over the line.
That's like saying "take out all the points scored by Daniel Carter and the score is actually really close".

Quote:
Its also possible that the GOP don't pick Trump as their candidate, very unlikely, but possible
Part of me suspects that if that happened Trump would run as an independent and win.
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Old 3rd March 2016, 12:59     #157
Cyberbob
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by blynk
Take out the super delegates, and its actually really close. That will be what gets Clinton over the line.

Its also possible that the GOP don't pick Trump as their candidate, very unlikely, but possible
They're designed for exactly that purpose though - to be the establishment's insurance policy. If the public vote goes "too crazy", the SD's can pull it back to where they'd like it to be. That's not going to change when the people with the power to change it are the ones benefiting from the way things are currently.

This is why I prefer our sort of system. We pick the party, the party picks the leader. The skills needed to run for office in the US are so different to the skills needed to effectively govern, it's no surprise the US is in the state it is now.

Have one of each. Germany's got it right.
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Last edited by Cyberbob : 3rd March 2016 at 13:01.
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Old 3rd March 2016, 12:59     #158
Cyberbob
 
edit: i have no idea how a doublepost was even possible.
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Old 3rd March 2016, 13:43     #159
blynk
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
That's like saying "take out all the points scored by Daniel Carter and the score is actually really close".
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyberbob
They're designed for exactly that purpose though - to be the establishment's insurance policy. If the public vote goes "too crazy", the SD's can pull it back to where they'd like it to be. That's not going to change when the people with the power to change it are the ones benefiting from the way things are currently.
yeah I know. Just meaning that all the actual voting is quite close.
Q. Can the superdelegates change their vote? Not that they would want to.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
Part of me suspects that if that happened Trump would run as an independent and win.
I don't think he would.
Clinton would definitely win. It wouldn't take many votes for the GOP candidate rather than trump to drop him out.
Especially if there is really only a few % between Trump & Clinton.
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Old 3rd March 2016, 13:58     #160
Lightspeed
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by blynk
Q. Can the superdelegates change their vote? Not that they would want to.
Yes. And they might very well.
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