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Old 3rd December 2020, 12:46     #1241
Cyberbob
 
I get that a positive RT-PCR result doesn’t prove that replicating virus is present. It proves that its genetic material – the RNA – is present. If they're putting people into isolation based on the presence of RNA, replicating virus or not, I'd rather err on the side of caution than put the community at risk.

Even in high prevalence areas, are they really getting a quantity of positives per 10,000's of tests to call the risk of false positives a pervasive problem?

MIT did more than 156,000 tests on asymptomatic individuals through COVID Pass and had fewer than 90 positives. A positive-test rate of 0.05–0.06%, then a risk of a false positive test being astronomically lower again, it's worth it.

If someone tests positive, their first thought should not be "I bet it's a false positive" You've got a better chance at winning the lottery.
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Last edited by Cyberbob : 3rd December 2020 at 12:49.
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Old 3rd December 2020, 13:27     #1242
blynk
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
FDA does not approve sharing the CT value with test results. So doctors in the US must simply take a positive result as meaning positive + infectious.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyberbob
If someone tests positive, their first thought should not be "I bet it's a false positive" You've got a better chance at winning the lottery.
I imagine this is the reason. Because there are too many idiots out there. So I imagine that sharing that information will get a greater number of people saying, "Im not that bad"
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Old 3rd December 2020, 13:31     #1243
Nich
 
and they are at 40 cycles.

https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-upd...cr-test-result

Maybe "false positive" is not helpful terminology regarding PCR test. From what I understand, if the PCR test is positive it definitely has found the COVID virus present in a sample no matter how small and harmless. So for MIT to have so few positives from PCR testing, I'd say it's because COVID just isn't present in the sample base.

My issue is that positive is equated with infectious. Which is ideal if your realistic goal is eradication (Australia, NZ ... MIT?), but a disaster for pretty much every other country where COVID is now endemic. The roadmap appears to be lockdown until safe vaccine arrives.
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Old 3rd December 2020, 14:01     #1244
Lightspeed
 
Is it really your issue though? Or is it the issue you've been fed by those interested in keeping people distrustful?
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Old 3rd December 2020, 14:22     #1245
Nich
 
I distrust people that have zero skin in the game, calling the shots for people with zero conviction or courage.

I trust people who are staking their careers and reputation opposing the orthodoxy.
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Old 3rd December 2020, 14:41     #1246
Lightspeed
 
What I hear is that you are enjoying indulging your biases. Playing make believe epidemiologist.

You're being played. No one is staking their career "opposing the orthodoxy". They're making a fucking career.

You are being played.
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Old 3rd December 2020, 15:12     #1247
Nich
 
Biases are healthy tho?
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Old 3rd December 2020, 15:15     #1248
Lightspeed
 
Is your world really so black & white?
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Old 3rd December 2020, 15:29     #1249
Nich
 
as black and white as you're attempting to make it out to be? no.

I started this thread believing the numbers were too low because China being China. Now I believe the numbers of active cases are too high because our testing and tracking tools are perfect for observing virus spread, and terrible at diagnosing infectiousness. That isn't black and white, it was a gradual change.

Last edited by Nich : 3rd December 2020 at 15:33.
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Old 3rd December 2020, 16:51     #1250
Lightspeed
 
Caught up in one bullshit story, moving onto the next one when that's no longer tenable.

Ease up on the podcasts. You're confusing entertainment for information.
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Old 4th December 2020, 08:47     #1251
Cyberbob
 
To a certain degree it's caring more about the optics of the situation than the clinical reality.

What impact will it have on the economy to isolate people when it's potentially unnecessary due to false-positives? It's a question that people far more experienced and knowledgeable than you or I are researching, and even at it's worst case, it's inconsequential IMO.

The reality is that More Americans died from COVID-19 yesterday than the number of people killed on 9/11

That's not an opinion, it's a fact.
And it's still going up. It's not getting better. The northern hemisphere is headed into winter, and headed into holiday periods. It's not getting better, and it won't for some time.
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Last edited by Cyberbob : 4th December 2020 at 08:48.
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Old 4th December 2020, 08:54     #1252
StN
I have detailed files
 
I understand at present Wakanda has reported no cases - isolating from the rest of the world seems like a great idea!
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Old 4th December 2020, 12:06     #1253
Nich
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightspeed
Caught up in one bullshit story, moving onto the next one when that's no longer tenable.

Ease up on the podcasts. You're confusing entertainment for information.
China reports they have 93,200 cases... yeah they are still under reporting. Elsewhere we're equating positive cases with infectious cases and over-reporting. This AND that.

Numbers and targets make people and governments do stupid shit as they believe the map is the terrain. OTOH I believe Dr. Nicholas Christakis when he says the fear, panic and economic devastation would have kicked in regardless. Also, he puts more weight on the death count rather than the positive case count.


Also, it looks like some are more "all in this together" than others:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...rs/ar-BB1bBEaf

Quote:
"From 4am on Sat 5th Dec high-value business travellers will no longer need to self-isolate when returning to ENGLAND from a country NOT in a travel corridor, allowing more travel to support the economy and jobs. Conditions apply," Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said on Twitter.

"Certain performing arts professionals, TV production staff, journalists, and recently signed elite sportspersons will also be exempt, subject to specific criteria being met."

Last edited by Nich : 4th December 2020 at 12:09.
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Old 4th December 2020, 12:42     #1254
Lightspeed
 
Maybe I once was, but I am not fool enough to be persuaded by or argue that which is beyond my domain of knowledge.

You are. What I wonder is why? What burden do you carry that is eased by engaging in this make believe? I can't imagine be any decision, any action that is aided by this psuedo-knowlege you play with. Something within you is satisfied by this game, something you cannot look at yourself.
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Old 4th December 2020, 13:05     #1255
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
drink
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Old 4th December 2020, 13:10     #1256
Nich
 
Here we go...

Do you ever ask questions, or go searching for answers outside your domain of knowledge?

I'm not going to caveat every forum post with "but what would I know?". We test our perception of reality by airing our thoughts on it. And if we're receptive, we will take onboard the convincing feedback / pushback that comes back at us (or perhaps double down). If the feedback is "You waste your time on the internet", then it's useless.
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Old 4th December 2020, 13:35     #1257
Lightspeed
 
Being curious is far, far different from arguing and asserting information as if you understand its significance.

You're being played and it's obvious. It's obvious that you're repeating what you've heard, I hear the exact same arguments elsewhere. You have no insight of your own to offer.

I'm not saying there isn't a balance to be struck, that the public has no place discussing and considering the information that's made available to us. But that's not what's happening here. Ostensibly you're trying convince us of what you've been convinced of, but actually you're working on strengthening your own ego. The effort of arguing is an effort to reinforce what you believe. Which is why I won't engage with it.

You need to do a study in epistemology. You're sloppy.
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Old 5th December 2020, 18:19     #1258
Nich
 
Well yeah, my understanding of the pandemic is a compilation of other people's thoughts. Only difference is I'm being played by a different set of propagandists than you. But the way you describe yourself you've transcended. Good for you.

Even things I've spent 1000's of hours doing: my understanding of jazz theory, FM synthesis, and of chroma-subsampling are all other people's thoughts. I'm fine with that.
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Old 5th December 2020, 21:26     #1259
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
We all stan for a shoulder of Giant
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Old 6th December 2020, 13:18     #1260
Lightspeed
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
Well yeah, my understanding of the pandemic is a compilation of other people's thoughts. Only difference is I'm being played by a different set of propagandists than you. But the way you describe yourself you've transcended. Good for you.

Even things I've spent 1000's of hours doing: my understanding of jazz theory, FM synthesis, and of chroma-subsampling are all other people's thoughts. I'm fine with that.
You've been convinced of a lie. It's not simply a case of falling for one set of propaganda or the other. This isn't the 1930s.

Do you regret all those hours you wasted studying music when you could have just followed a blog? Obviously you don't feel like you gained any ability from your study, just how to regurgitate the efforts of others. That's all your music ever was?

I haven't transcended, I'm growing up and always hope to. I can see all to clearly what happens when people stop, I don't want that for me. Or you I suppose, which is why I'm making this effort.
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Old 8th December 2020, 10:34     #1261
Nich
 
Would you prefer I spend my time in the waiting place where the pandemic is fact checked by the likes of Twitter, Facebook and WHO? No! Somehow I'll escape all that waiting and staying and find bright places where Boom Bands are playing.

Time is to be spent. Spend it well or spend it poorly, just spend it. So I spend my time thinking on how it's not good to track and trace non-infectious people.
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Old 8th December 2020, 10:59     #1262
Lightspeed
 
You're lapping up bullshit served up by those who don't have your interests in mind. You're choosing propaganda, by your own admission.

I find that very distasteful, problematic even. When those who have made a disciplined effort to identify best practices attempt to make those practices understood, they have to contend with fucks like you who think their ignorance is as good as anyone's knowledge. And so people die.

I guess letting you know that is how I spend my time...

Grow the fuck up already Nich.
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Old 8th December 2020, 11:40     #1263
StN
I have detailed files
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
So I spend my time thinking on how it's not good to track and trace non-infectious people.
You can get a matching hat for that. Unless you are using the NZ App, which is opt-in for location alerts based on your own diary - ie no report back to MoH.
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Old 8th December 2020, 17:34     #1264
crocos
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by StN
Unless you are using the NZ App...
Nah he's in Victoria.
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Old 8th December 2020, 17:39     #1265
Nich
 
Great, my dissent is not only thwarting the efforts of experts but also killing granny. You've lapped up your own share of bullshit.
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Old 9th December 2020, 06:20     #1266
StN
I have detailed files
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by StN
You can get a matching hat for that. Unless you are using the NZ App, which is opt-in for location alerts based on your own diary - ie no report back to MoH*.
*Except for randomised statistical reporting on uptake and usage.
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Old 9th December 2020, 10:51     #1267
DrTiTus
HENCE WHY FOREVER ALONE
 
In a nutshell

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightspeed
You're lapping up bullshit served up by those who don't have your interests in mind. You're choosing propaganda, by your own admission.

I find that very distasteful, problematic even. When those who have made a disciplined effort to identify best practices attempt to make those practices understood, they have to contend with fucks like you who think their ignorance is as good as anyone's knowledge. And so people die.

I guess letting you know that is how I spend my time...

Grow the fuck up already Nich.
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Old 9th December 2020, 11:33     #1268
Nothing
 
I mean, America is a great case study of what happens when fuckwits don't listen to experts. On track for 300,000 deaths by Christmas.

Last edited by Nothing : 9th December 2020 at 11:34.
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Old 9th December 2020, 12:22     #1269
Lightspeed
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
Great, my dissent is not only thwarting the efforts of experts but also killing granny. You've lapped up your own share of bullshit.
Dissent? Pfft. You're fat on a diet of information junk food. Ready to eat up the next morsel that confirms your bias.

What bullshit have I lapped up? My position is I don't know, I'll look to what experts in positions of authority have to say. That's working out very well.
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Old 9th December 2020, 13:34     #1270
Lightspeed
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nothing
I mean, America is a great case study of what happens when fuckwits don't listen to experts. On track for 300,000 deaths by Christmas.
And yet people still don't believe that the pandemic is real or a serious concern. Days before Nich posted it here, I saw someone explaining that CDC data showed there wasn't actually an increase in mortality this year compared to the previous, as their basis for why the pandemic isn't real. So I went to the CDC website, dug around until I found those specific statistics, stats which clearly showed over 150k excess deaths... by June! (Which was their latest data.)

But still, people disbelieve. For some not even the death of a loved one is enough to convince them.

Instead of questioning why people don't trust elected leaders, they become fake epidemiologists, because surely it's someone else who is to blame. Not me, not the people we elect to lead us. Those tricksie doctors spending years, decades in training and practice, all so they can run a scam.

And so many die who would have otherwise lived if we trusted those we put into power.
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Old 10th December 2020, 19:40     #1271
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nothing
I mean, America is a great case study of what happens when fuckwits don't listen to experts. On track for 300,000 deaths by Christmas.
read and weep:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...s/?arc404=true

muh freedimz
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Old 20th December 2020, 13:12     #1272
Lightspeed
 
This is an excellent example of someone who doesn't understand how health science works:

Damien Grant: Overwhelming evidence shows I was the worst prognosticator on the impact of Covid

Despite being consistently wrong, they're still sure they're right.

Quote:
By locking down our economy we were conducting an experiment. An unfortunate experiment, even, although critically with informed and near universal consent. What was the downside risk of this gamble?
This is particularly stark.

We didn't conduct an experiment. We acted. Circumstances compelled us to act, inaction itself being an action with consequences.

We used health science to decide on the course of action to take, because we have a long track record of using its methods in our decision making processes with effective results.

While for most of us the nuance of a pandemic and how to deal with it was something we were just becoming aware of as a thing to deeply consider, there was already a large body of knowledge available with practitioners trained and skilled at applying that knowledge, the results of their efforts affording them positions of authority.

But there are no shortage of folks like this who weigh their own insight equally against that of any such disciplined efforts.
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Old 3rd January 2021, 22:16     #1273
Lightspeed
 
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1344997629416140805

Those tricksie Chinese!
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Old 3rd January 2021, 23:29     #1274
crocos
 
And the "But t3h MASKS!" idiots spouting off in the replies.
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Old 4th January 2021, 01:13     #1275
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
muh freedimz I said!
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Old 4th January 2021, 09:08     #1276
Cyberbob
 
I found out the other day that someone i respected is actually anti-vax, pro-MLM, anti-mask, and runs an anti-lockdown facebook group.
Talk about bomb drop.
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Old 5th January 2021, 13:25     #1277
Nothing
 
I'm glad to see that you're using the past tense of respect.
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Old 6th January 2021, 18:19     #1279
crocos
 
Quote:
“This is a Boss MT-2 Metal Zone, and trust me, that ain't curing anybody of anything, except maybe good tone.”
Brutal
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Old 12th January 2021, 12:41     #1280
Cyberbob
 
I'm hearing rumors of another lockdown due to the new strain being in the community. Let's see how this goes
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