The Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Ab]

If my memory of the Chernobyl fallout serves, the prevailing winds from there would be north west across Belarus towards the Baltic.

[pxpx]

Highly unlikely there'll be a Chernobyl style explosion unless the reactor cooling system and any redundancies get severely damaged before the reactors can safely power down.

[Lightspeed]

Let's hope they don't fight over all 15 of them in the same manner. Sudden severe damage isn't hard to come by in a war zone.

[_indigo1]

The Chernobyl explosion is like the worst nuclear disaster ever - not exactly a good yardstick to use!

[Lightspeed]

There is something about war and memes that is surreal to me.

[Savage]

Originally Posted by pxpx

Highly unlikely there'll be a Chernobyl style explosion unless the reactor cooling system and any redundancies get severely damaged before the reactors can safely power down.

I read earlier that only one of the six reactors is actually running, so crisis pretty much averted (especially now the RU military have taken it). Still running under the regular UA engineers apparently.

[Ab]

This guy, seriously.

https://twitter.com/therecount/statu...29621955235845

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Ab

This guy, seriously.

https://twitter.com/therecount/statu...29621955235845

Other things that VZ has done this week:

The Times: Volodymyr Zelensky survives three assassination attempts in days

[DrTiTus]

Originally Posted by UkrainianFighter

I was wounded in the shoulder + my house in Kharkov is no more because it was broken, so I was evacuated to the ______ region, where I was born. everything is very calm here

so strange without shelling that I can't sleep

I doubt anyone's monitoring this forum, but just leaving out the details of her personal life. I guess that's her bit done... for now.

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by Ab

Other things that VZ has done this week:

The Times: Volodymyr Zelensky survives three assassination attempts in days

Whether or not the Russia FSB is slipping VZ's security team intelligence, the US is surely working hard to get them timely information.

So anxious for this guy!

[Ab]

Its weird, isn't it? I'm waking up in the mornings and grabbing my phone before I even get out of bed, hitting the news feeds thinking to myself "oh man please let VZ still be alive and let Ukraine still be fighting for another day"

[Ajax]

The massive Russian convoy outside Kiev appears to be just sitting there, out of fuel, getting picked apart by drone strikes, and now running low on food. The Russians sent a very senior Major General up to the head of the convoy to sort things out, and it seems he was killed by a sniper.

[Cyberbob]

I'm still quietly worried about Putin thinking he's running out of options.

[DrTiTus]

Originally Posted by Ajax

The Nazi thing doesn't make a lot of sense. For a start, Zelenskyy is Jewish and had numerous family members killed in the Holocaust.

Jimmy Dore goes through the neo-Nazi thing - things don't have to make sense Ajax, this is 2022 and we're in a pandemic, so making sense is suspended until further notice

Originally Posted by Ab

Guess I'm helping pay for a military operation now.

If this is true, then Ab just donated to the Nazis, so he's a Nazi sympathiser, which makes HIM a Nazi, and you know what they say: if there's one Nazi running a forum, and people are posting in the forum, what have you got? NAZIGames.com

Bad thing about crypto is you can't reverse the charge, so he's forever a Nazi now. He funded Azov Battalion, it's right there in the blockchain. :P

Why Putin invaded Ukraine - and what's really going on (some random substack, I'm not asserting the veracity of any of this, or that it's what's 'really going on')

Check out the neo-Nazi kids video in section 3... they've translated it to "Heil Ukraine" but I think 'Glory to Ukraine' is a less loaded translation. It's definitely.. nationalist. At least they are praising a country and not a particular person, but hmm. That salute though.

US foreign policy seems to be pro-Ukraine (therefore US are Nazis), which is why media is pro-Ukraine, which is why everyone else is pro-Ukraine. People do what media tells them. Even support Nazis.

I'm not saying this because I suddenly want to support Putin or Russia, and now wish for the destruction of Ukraine. I just found the videos and information quite disturbing - confronting even - and now I'm even more confused because Putin is horrible too (so the media tells me, I've never met the man). I know blynk asked me not to take the "other side", and I'm not - I'm just providing balance to the discussion. I think it's always important to see and deal with the facts from both sides rather than accepting TV as the only version of reality. I had not seen this information before, and there wasn't much mention of it apart from Ajax's comment. If anyone can explain away all the Nazi-ness, go ahead.

I saw that Ukraine put out a call for foreign nationals to join their fight, and visa requirements have been waived until the end of martial law [or until you get shot]. I don't know if that's a sign of things not going well...

Finally, here's the video of my friend firing the mortar. She is not wearing any Azov shit, I assume because she's a reserve/civilian and not a full on radical soldier, but you know what they say, if there's 1 Nazi in the military...

[smudge]

Originally Posted by Cyberbob

I'm still quietly worried about Putin thinking he's running out of options.

In any of the potential scenarios for the invasion, he's still facing economic meltdown. Regime change or detente? Either way it's going to be messy.

https://twitter.com/CasusBellii/stat...07909581561857
I can't figure out how this combat movie can have such production quality. Decent camera, perfectly placed viewpoint, on a 3 way tripod, etc. Seems off.

[Ab]

Not forgiving you for any of that other stuff, Germany, but gg

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1499497593335738368

[Cyberbob]

Germany inputting with their expertise on Russia's claim they're fighting Nazi's.

[Ajax]

Just speculating here but it’s conceivable there could be a coup or some other sort of regime change in Belarus. Lukashenko lacks popular support, his Russian puppet masters are distracted, and there are reports the Belarusian army is extremely reluctant to get involved in the conflict.

[_indigo1]

https://www.reddit.com/r/nextfucking...an_incredible/

Sorry for Reddit.

[DrTiTus]

Ukraine on Fire (2016) - Oliver Stone

Pretty good background if you don't know Ukraine's history.

[Ajax]

Wheat price skyrocketing. Russia and Ukraine are major wheat producers.

[_indigo1]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/04/ukra...n-bombing.html

Those developers, along with other Ukrainian civilians in the country, are now being forced to defend their homes and cities while sheltering from Russian bombs. But many are still continuing to remotely work for their employers, supporting the local defense effort by day while sending in their deliverables by night.

[xor]

Parents of an 11 year old Ukranian boy told him to travel to Slovakia by himself as they couldn't leave with him. What a gut punch

[Ab]

This is starting to look a bit, you know, weird...?







Wall Street Journal:

U.S., Allies Are Ramping Up Sanctions on Russia, but One Country Is Sitting Out


Jacinda smiles and waves:

“What we’ve done to date is very much in line with what many other countries have done. But we do want to do more,” she added.

Nothing to see here.

[Lightspeed]

Don't we have to change some laws first before we can implement these kind of sanctions? I wasn't paying too close attention, but that's what I understood.

[Ab]

This is a government that rams through legislation under urgency at the drop of a hat. E.g

• introducing regional fuel taxes
• levy on international visitors
• abolishing election for Waikato DHB
• reducing the amount a foreign person can donate to a party
• giving prisoners the vote
• classifying on-demand videos
• abolishing the right of voters to decide on local Maori wards

"Oh we'd love to help but there's a pesky law in the way" may be the excuse for not acting on the invasion of Ukraine, it sure isn't the reason.

[Lightspeed]

This government, like the last government.

And yes, and a bill is being considered today for this very purpose.

[Ab]

National isn't the government right now while Ukraine is being liquidated.

[Lightspeed]

What point are you making? The government is doing exactly what they can to impose sanctions.

[_indigo1]

TBH the sanctions, whilst mildly effective, were expected and easily manageable in the short term given the war-chest Putin has built up for exactly this reason - slowly migrating Russia away from dependence on the world economy over the last decade - ensuring Russians don't starve once Russia is isolated by migrating from a net wheat importer to a net exporter, etc etc.

Russia's economy hasn't been in growth for years, for this exact reason - fortifying independence - which has cost them growth and innovation.

This has been a long game for Putin. These sanctions, whilst awesome to see given the unity they have brought the west, are mostly symbolic and a talking piece so that nations can say they did something in response, as opposed to anything that is actually going to change anything in next six months of war.

SWIFT in particular is the 'big gun' talking point at the moment; but the reality it's not the economic nuke that they are making it out to be.
SPFS is compatible from a standards point of view and it's very easy to get countries/banks onboarded who were not before. It will not be difficult for Russia to build networks with countries who have not shut it out.
Same with CIPS.

All of these stop short of what is really needed to have a real impact in terms of actual response - targeting the Russia energy sector as well as passing legislation on long term sanctions that are ratified to stay in place 10/20 years.
Beyond that, Putin knows that if he is able to take Ukraine; within a relatively short space of time the west will realise that sanctions are pointless and they will slowly be loosened in favour of easing the global economy - given Russia is such a major producer of many commodities let alone food, and democracy and politicians focus on short term wins.

So yeah worrying that NZ has not brought into what I would class as the wests version of propaganda (harsh word but just go with it) in that they have 'responded' is kind of missing the point I think.

I'd rather see us take the lead with something more impactful instead of following the global template, if even only symbolic given our lack of girth on the global stage.

[blynk]

Originally Posted by Ab

This is a government that rams through legislation under urgency at the drop of a hat.

I guess that depends on what you mean by "at the drop of a hat".

Im sure none of those things were started and rammed through.

And can someone explain that if previously we followed the UN for any sanctions, which I assumed has worked okay till now, why are we not following the UN, or is the UN not doing anything?

[Lightspeed]

Russian oligarchy vs US oligarchy:

https://spacenews.com/spacex-shifts-...rlink-jamming/

[smudge]

Interesting thread about the war in the south: https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/s...37716601458688

[_indigo1]

I can just see the world being surprised, 'oh, fuck, Russia won, how did it happen?? why didn't we do anything?' in disbelief - given we have built the Ukraine resistance effort up so much.
I mean deep down we all know they are gonna get crushed eventually. But somehow it doesn't seem real as long as we keep thinking of them as the plucky underdog who is standing up to the clumsy giant.

[pxpx]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5BAZ2bBUzM&t=2s

Ukraine War: What the West Doesn't Understand

[Lightspeed]

Uh-oh.

Russia puts Taiwan on 'unfriendly' countries list, China says it isn't a country

[Ajax]

There have been dozens of pics and vids of intact Russian heavy equipment being towed away by Ukraine's John Deere Brigade. Crazy attrition.

[Cyberbob]

John Deere's new ad campaign right there.

[Ajax]

Meanwhile, here's a Russian armoured train rolling into battle like it's 1942.



Maybe they'll re-start the T-34 factories in the Urals next.

[Ajax]

Man's going to need a tetanus shot after using that thing.