nCoV 2019

[Nich]

Sit back, don't panic. Certainly don't stockpile any food or medical supplies. Enjoy the show as we look out for your best interests:

- A vaccine is 3-months away and Aussie scientists sequenced the genome! Aussie Aussie Aussie!
- We've detected all infected Australians, and they are on Christmas Island where they can't infect you!
- It's China's problem, let's rubberneck and watch the timelapse of a new Quaran^H^H^H^H^H Hospital being built in a week!
- OK, it's killed more people than SARS, but the seasonal flu kills more!
- Look over here, TSLA and AMZN kicking ass on the stock market!
- Consumer confidence is high, yep. Keep buying shit and taking out loans... but don't you dare buy stockpile food and medical supplies you paranoid prepper!


Body Count | Epsilon Theory
https://www.epsilontheory.com/body-count/
The battle against nCoV 2019 is merely a narrative control (akin to the US narrative control of the Vietnam War) opportunity for governments and WHO to demonstrate how necessary they are in overcoming threats to national security, ensuring our safety and well being.

Reddit r/dataisbeautiful predicts WHO (aka China) "official numbers" as it follows quadratic model perfectly:
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeaut..._growth_model/

For anyone interested, here is a comparison to the official numbers (parenthesis are the predicted numbers):

05/02/2020 24553 (23435) cases 492 (489) fatalities

06/02/2020 28278 (26885) cases 565 (561) fatalities

07/02/2020 31349 (30576) cases 638 (639) fatalities

08/02/2020 34876 (34506) cases 724 (721) fatalities

09/02/2020 37552 (38675) cases 813 (808) fatalities

10/02/2020 40553 (43084) cases 910 (900) fatalities

11/02/2020 ? (47733) cases ? (997) fatalities

12/02/2020 ? (52621) cases ? (1099) fatalities

13/02/2020 ? (57749) cases ? (1206) fatalities

14/02/2020 ? (63116) cases ? (1319) fatalities

15/02/2020 ? (68723) cases ? (1436) fatalities

16/02/2020 ? (74570) cases ? (1558) fatalities

17/02/2020 ? (80656) cases ? (1685) fatalities

18/02/2020 ? (86982) cases ? (1817) fatalities

19/02/2020 ? (93548) cases ? (1955) fatalities

20/02/2020 ? (100353) cases ? (2097) fatalities

in short, the official numbers are bullshit. But for how long can they keep the lid on this? Will every government follow China's lead and low-ball their nation's number of infected in some sort of global pissing contest?

Here's the John's Hopkins map of nCoV 2019, but it takes it's data from WHO (aka China). Still, it's entertaining like a video game, i guess:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

The narrative appears to be to goalseek towards the data that proves the outbreak has come under control. So the quadratic model shows us the trend, but the numbers are bullshit so the reported numbers can easily just come in lower than the model each day. Then the news can report that the actions of WHO and governments has worked.

However, WHO reports R0 2 so the infection rate should be exponential.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...spread/605632/
(interesting, this article says it was "Updated February 14, 2020, at 10:35 a.m." ... in the future)

China confirms nCoV spreads by aerosolisation. R0 is probably higher than 2:
Dr John Campbell https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HCRmTHCUao
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...144f4cbbc4d807
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/2020...217275fc3.html

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by Nich

The battle against nCoV 2019 is merely a narrative control (akin to the US narrative control of the Vietnam War) opportunity for governments and WHO to demonstrate how necessary they are in overcoming threats to national security, ensuring our safety and well being.

What's your timeline for the collapse of this narrative?

[Lightspeed]

It's nice to think the Internet could be Spain this time around, but that's a poisoned chalice.

[Nich]

I have no doubt that China will lie about the true human cost of the virus indefinitely. No amount of public outrage and calling out their bullshit will change their tune. So the narrative is safe there, and they can rewrite history locally if anyone gets out of line and misremembers the facts.

Elsewhere, I don't like to forecast (because there's a high chance I'd be wrong on timing), but given the information I've been following I'll take a stab.

In 1-2 months we'll no longer be getting our information from WHO press conferences, but rather news of the virus will come from ordinary people in Europe, US, and Australia witnessing it firsthand and posting about it on social media.

[Cyberbob]

I fricking love that someone applied a generic epidemic model to the projected future China official numbers, and was off by less than a margin of error. They're barely even trying to lie about it.

[Ajax]

The numbers being released are only a reflection of China's capacity to test patients, which is about 3000 per day max.This also applies to many other countries with very limited capacity. The actual number of infected is probably much higher and still growing exponentially.

[blynk]

Originally Posted by Cyberbob

I fricking love that someone applied a generic epidemic model to the projected future China official numbers, and was off by less than a margin of error. They're barely even trying to lie about it.

Yeah, I didn't have my tinfoil hat on when I started reading this, and this was my take as well.
Or did I miss the takeout. Are we trying to say that China is just using some bullshit model in telling us the numbers, and not whats really happening.

Edit, and having a quick look at the reddit site (Im not going down this rabbit hole), the numbers for today are well above the model. Could this be that they increased their capacity to test?

[MadMax]

Originally Posted by Ajax

The numbers being released are only a reflection of China's capacity to test patients, which is about 3000 per day max.This also applies to many other countries with very limited capacity. The actual number of infected is probably much higher and still growing exponentially.

No. They are outright lying about the numbers.

[Nich]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-o...er-11581568911

This might have something to do with the “trend change” in the numbers. New management, keen to highlight bad practices of previous management so it doesnt come back on them:

- test kits were giving false negatives, proved unreliable to give numbers of infected
- added CT scans to add “clinical diagnoses” into the count
- CT scans must be for severe cases though where the infection is rampant

[Nich]

CDC confirms the virus will outbreak in US, will likely last beyond Winter, and may last until 2021:
- https://youtu.be/XLxTetlif9o
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gd1fuEYD3Q (remember to worry more about the flu)

Just look at how blasé these countries and companies are because they know this is less severe than the flu:
- China (blockades, unprecedented quarantine measures),
- Singapore (national work from home mandate),
- Hong Kong (built world's biggest quarantine centre),
- British Airways (cancelled all flights to China),
- Microsoft Apple Samsung et al (cancelled Mobile World Conference),
- Hyunda (halts car production due to lack of parts)

The economy and the market seems to keep going up despite widespread global reduction of economic activity. Curious. Maybe the markets are a complete fraudulent fabrication after all. Thanks Obama (QE)

Australia is definitely lying about the number of infected.. Australia total infected still sits at 15, but I know for a fact a new case has been added less than 100km from where I am, Yarrawonga:
https://www.bordermail.com.au/story/...onavirus-test/

Catching covid19 doesn't give you immunity to reinfection, and reinfection may be worse than the first time with overactive immune reaction, cytokine storms, et al:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwJ5thwr4C8


Time to stock up on hand sanitizer, surface cleaners, face masks. The news and government agencies (Singapore excluded where they advised mild cases to self medicate at home, and spare the hospital capacity for the severe cases) will never tell you to make your own arrangements. To do so is the same as telling everyone to panic. They will tell you how great the medical services and facilities are, and that they can take care of the sick.

And act as though you may get the virus and need to self medicate at home:
- antiviral supplements
- electrolytes
- have meals ready to go in pantry and freezer

[Nich]

Reminder: Set your stop loss orders on any of your equities.

[fixed_truth]

Is the virus much of a lethal threat outside of those with compromised health?

[Lightspeed]

What I don't get is the dramatic number of cases in China but the few cases elsewhere. In New Zealand. If we were being deceived the steps we're currently taking on the border would be inadequate. Infected individuals would be arriving in New Zealand. I don't believe New Zealand has the kind of censorship infrastructure that would prevent the truth being exposed.

I'm still not seeing this run away on us, short a dramatic mutation of the virus. What I'm see is the consequence of long term misinformation, seasoned with hysteria.

I'm on the activated charcoal and electrolytes myself right now, damn stomach virus.

[Nich]

We are in Summer, which is helping to kill viruses on surfaces. But we're entering Winter, and this COVID19 is estimated to last until 2021!

The reports seem to suggest healthy people can shrug it off. But those people may never suspect they have COVID19 and still turn up to school, work, etc.

Personally, over half the people I know have compromised health. I don't think I'm just using personal anecdotal evidence to presume that a large chunk of the population is compromised.

Also, in Australia you have a population that has been breathing in bushfire smoke since October / November. My mother and step mother refused to wear the P2 masks because they were "annoying". OK, boomer.

I know a woman who was on penicillin due to a lung infection from breathing in bushfire smoke, which recently gave her her first asthma attack of her life. Now she needs a ventiolin inhaler on her person. One example of a "healthy" person who now has damaged lungs.

[Lightspeed]

How's This Coronavirus Gonna Play Out?

I trust Stan Muller.

[blynk]

Originally Posted by Nich

Australia is definitely lying about the number of infected.. Australia total infected still sits at 15, but I know for a fact a new case has been added less than 100km from where I am, Yarrawonga:
https://www.bordermail.com.au/story/...onavirus-test/

Can't read the article.
She has tested positive for Coronavirus, or she has been tested for Coronavirus?
There is a bit of a difference between the 2.

[fixed_truth]

Originally Posted by Nich

The reports seem to suggest healthy people can shrug it off. But those people may never suspect they have COVID19 and still turn up to school, work, etc.

Personally, over half the people I know have compromised health. I don't think I'm just using personal anecdotal evidence to presume that a large chunk of the population is compromised.

Yep that's very true. On reflection I suppose that I'm privileged that it's not directly a threat to my life. Not to derail the thread but I can't help but think of the analogy with what's going on with global warming ie, people a bit blasé because they're not directly affected... yet.

[Lightspeed]

I like Stan's point. We all have something to gain by treating the illness seriously even if it turns out not to be serious.

Tens of thousands die annually from the flu. How much effort do we take every year to mitigate this risk?

Are our concerns today coherent with the concern we demonstrate for this other known risk? If not, in which we do we go? More disciplined in general, or consistently indifferent?

[Ajax]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

Tens of thousands die annually from the flu. How much effort do we take every year to mitigate this risk?

It's just not comparable to the flu - this coronavirus is far more deadly and also more infectious. Look at the tremendous pressure on Wuhan hospitals - the flu doesn't have that effect. The real worry is what happens if it gets a foothold in various third-world countries - a 2% mortality rate would be totally overwhelming for them

[Nich]

- 10% of the world's population (50% of China) is now under quarantine for COVID19.
- Cash is being removed from circulation, limiting capital flight and trading options.

I dearly hope this is not how we approach the flu each year.

[Ab]

Lol there wouldn’t happen to be an advanced virology lab with links to bioweapons research in Wuhan would there? I mean I hate internet gossip but that would be a helluva coincidence

[Lightspeed]

If we want to take conspiracy to the next level... The Chinese population is being exposed to a mild version of the virus, developing antibodies across the population, in preparation for a virulent version the rest of the world won't have any defense against.

[MadMax]

I sat here contemplating that for far too long.

[Ab]

We don't need to worry in NZ because our biosecurity experts at customs are on the case

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/trave...ckland-airport

[crocos]

But survival of the fittest!

[Nich]

Maybe the supply chain productivity reduction due to the quarantine measures wont be a problem if matched by consumer demand reduction due to death.

[Know me.]

Originally Posted by Ab

We don't need to worry in NZ because our biosecurity experts at customs are on the case

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/trave...ckland-airport

Says at the bottom of the article that vomiting is not a symptom. Case closed.

[blynk]

They probably see "heaps" of people vomit after a flight.
And who's to say the customs officer did go
Were you sick? Yes, got airsick. Any other symptoms? No.

Have a great day.


I would also put $100 on that the guy was Asian.

[Ajax]

Virus appears to be spreading rapidly in South Korea, Iran, Italy.

[xor]

A couple of federal agencies predict there will be a pandemic in Australia by July.

[Nich]

I have no doubt, we're entering colder months (virus lasts longer in air and on surfaces), Universities will be kicking into high gear in a week.

oh and there's this:
Australian university offers Chinese students $1,000 to return via third country
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN20F08A

We're fucked.

In Melbourne:
Chinatown is empty.
Bookings at our Airbnb in Brunswick have dried up for March onward.

Chris Martenson (you may remember his Crash Course video series) has been doing great daily reporting on COVID19
https://youtu.be/vWJBJq-tVsc

Also macro economics are fucked: trade, production, transportation stopped
And micro economics are fucked: holidays, concerts, conventions are being cancelled.

Prepare for global financial meltdown.

[Nich]

Also, Italy may be the only country giving honest reporting on its numbers.

[DrTiTus]

Originally Posted by Nich

Prepare for global financial meltdown.

Are we there yet? Dow Jones drops 1000.

[pxpx]

Call us when it's below 20,000

[Ajax]

The Dow dropped about 3%. As a comparison, on Black Monday in 1987 the Dow dropped 22.6%.

[Nich]

Different situation 1980 vs 2020 : Were companies like Amazon borrowing money at 0% to buyback their own shares as they do now? the FED spent much of 2019 injecting mini QE into the stock market to mask true sentiment and prevent panic.

Ex FED chair Yellen said FED should continue to buy the stock market with printed money so long as it had the desired effect of calming weak hands and reducing volatility

[Nich]

Different situation 1980 vs 2020 : Were companies like Amazon borrowing money at 0% to buyback their own shares as they do now? the FED spent much of 2019 injecting mini QE into the stock market to mask true sentiment and prevent panic.

Ex FED chair Yellen said FED should continue to buy the stock market with printed money so long as it had the desired effect of calming weak hands and reducing volatility

[Nich]

soz posted on phone

[Ab]

chiq pointed me to this article, which is the best high level summary I’ve read so far:

https://nyti.ms/2Pj0TEm

[Nich]

More reasons not to trust WHO, and perhaps an explanation as to why it took more than 2 months for WHO to mobilise a crack team to travel to Wuhan and get to the bottom of this pande^H^H^H^H^H global emergency:

Candidate to Lead the W.H.O. Accused of Covering Up Epidemics
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/13/h...utbreaks.html?