nCoV 2019

[DrTiTus]

The problem with analogies is that they are terrible: If you have so much faith in vests, why aren't you wearing one right now? Are you anti-science? You must be an anti-vester because you aren't wearing one. What a schmuck, hates material science. Check out my pamphlets, where I painstakingly point out how vests work and how if you don't wear one you will take up a hospital bed. Only an idiot doesn't wear a ballistic vest all day.

"But.... I'm not at risk of dying from a gunshot to the chest? It's these people, who are actually in harm's way who need to wear them..."

YOU NEVER KNOW WHEN YOU'LL GET SHOT AT. Selfish prick. Just wear the vest!

I'm waiting to see if Ab can determine where I'm going wrong, because I respect his views/ability to explain and use logic and common sense more than some of the consistent bad takes I see from others, and it was he who I was replying to.

At least MadMax admits he's just taking his chances, and I like his honesty. If everyone would give others the same courtesy, we wouldn't have protests etc going on. If he still gets COVID and ends up sick, I won't be laughing, I'll actually feel bad for him. I'd even drive over and do his shopping for him if he asked me to. That's how society functions smoothly - we treat other nicely, and not interfere with each others lives.

[sidbo]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

we treat other nicely, and not interfere with each others lives.

You are >< this close to getting it.

[DrTiTus]

Yup, now show me how a vaccine which doesn't stop infection and transmission achieves anything that a mask can't achieve? Because I understand where you're coming from, but you have to concede that being vaccinated is not protecting others, only one's self. Masking does (to some extent), and I have no problem with masking.

And sorry blynk, I don't have the raw data, I only see the graphs from the analyst who puts them together.

But here's today's one from MOH:



If they're not getting tested, which I assume is your "ah-ha!" rebuttal, we can only assume they're not getting sick enough to need hospital treatment, where testing is required. It's certainly not "overwhelmingly unvaccinated people testing positive" because there are clearly a lot of vaccinated cases. And you also have to assume that EVERY vaccinated person is getting tested also. But once we start making assumptions, what's the point in looking at data? Even if we assume the numbers are the same (as in the under 12s), they're all fairly similar numbers. My conclusion: Sweet fuck all difference. Wear a mask.

[DrTiTus]

Ignoring vaccines, please read this, as I think it reflects my position, and I believe it's important for people to recognise what we can learn from the last 2 years.

The Greater Good or a Grander Evil

We've officially got COVID in my town, and because it's so small, that means we'll probably all get it from either one of the two supermarkets. Friday vindaloo, Indian hot I think.

[Cyberbob]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

but you have to concede that being vaccinated is not protecting others, only one's self.

If i'm not in hospital, if i'm not taking up an ICU bed, if i'm minimising the risk of being a burden to my family, my community, or the healthcare system, then it's done it's job.

Isn't that protecting others?

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

now show me how a vaccine which doesn't stop infection and transmission achieves anything that a mask can't achieve

It's right in front of you. It was literally two graphs up from the one you just posted from here.

You're not even trying.



edit: FUCK. Even the one directly below your graph shows it.



It was the one directly below your one.


Why the fuck am I bothering.

[DrTiTus]

Who are the hospitalized cases? Do they represent an equal cross section of society? Or are they among an already identified high risk group? Why are young people under 12 not being vilified and told to help society?

I'm not in hospital, I'm not in an ICU bed. Why am I the bad guy?

[blynk]

Edit. More graphs have been added. My reference is to DrTs


Fair enough not to have the data. It seems to be data that is harder to come by.
I imagine there are plenty of people that are extracting the numbers each day for the MoH to produce their own graphs. Or maybe media outlets have more access to the data.

The waybackmachine has given me some data, but I dont get anything near what I believe numbers are trying to show.

What is the web source (rather than datasource) of that graph. I would still be interested in looking at it to see what it is trying to do.

[blynk]

TBF in the sake of balance.

DrTs graphs are references the more recent cases.
Back in August, the majority of the country was not vax - wasnt it only about 25%?
So, most people that got it would have been unvaccinated.
Again, doing as a % of the population of the group over time is a much better view.

The hospital view is definitely a tie in to the overall case stats.

There could also be a natural bias as well. Those that don't want vax, may also be reluctant to get help which leads to worse outcomes.
Similar to those that dont want vax are less likely to get tested.

[DrTiTus]

There's a guy called Derek Rankin, he was on Twitter, but keeps getting banned for posting thought crime.

You can find him on Gettr (https://gettr.com/user/derek_rankin) but I don't know that he releases his spreadsheets. I believe he processes the daily deltas from MoH somehow, but I'm not 100% sure what the URL of his MoH data is.

I'm not arguing against vaccination, and I'm not denying people the right to choose vaccination, or claiming COVID is a lie, or 5G/microchips or anything obviously crazy. I would even argue FOR vaccination of the "at-risk" group, of course with their consent.

It just feels too - authoritarian - for lack of a better word, how things have gone. (as per the article I posted) Personally, I would have been more accepting if it was left as a free choice and vaccine risks were disclosed when that information started coming out, instead of denied and branded conspiracy. I'm now doing it to prove a point that vaccination is in fact not necessary. Stupid, perhaps, but the data gives me no reason to panic. If I come out alive, I can say: individual responsibility works. If not, then shame on me.

[Lightspeed]

Part of the issue with DrT's Joe Rogan approach to knowledge is it undermines more robust analysis.

We're unable to engage in genuine critical analysis at the public level because any critique will be picked up, inflated, distorted by people like DrT who are compelled to chase feelings of being a hero. You know, without having to do the work of actually being a hero.

[xor]

12 cases at the border and just under 2k cases in the community. Why is the border still closed?

[blynk]

Originally Posted by xor

12 cases at the border and just under 2k cases in the community. Why is the border still closed?

Because they gave a date several weeks ago about when they were going to start opening things up again. At that date, we were hovering around 200 cases. Its only been the last week that it has really blown up.

That date was the end of Feb.
Could they change it now that we are in Phase 2. Probably.

[Lightspeed]

The border limits the likelihood of new variants getting in. We had a good heads-up of Omicron thanks to our border controls.

[Cyberbob]

Cases in NZ if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Sat: 2206 1957—2462
Sun: 2664 2352—2991
Mon: 3212 2824—3626
Tue: 3870 3379—4398
Wed: 4652 4038—5317
Thu: 5584 4816—6436
Fri: 6691 5732—7750

Doubling time is 3.3 days.

[xor]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

The border limits the likelihood of new variants getting in. We had a good heads-up of Omicron thanks to our border controls.

Sounds like a pretty idiotic risk management plan. Keep the border closed because of the potential new variants but then still open the border a few weeks later? Sounds exactly like something an inept group of people would decide with regards to a risk management plan.

Originally Posted by blynk

Because they gave a date several weeks ago about when they were going to start opening things up again. At that date, we were hovering around 200 cases. Its only been the last week that it has really blown up.

Yep, the Omicron cases have blown up just like it has in every other country. This isn't some revelation, yet from the podium of truth the emperor was evangelizing how we would stamp it out.

[blynk]

Originally Posted by xor

Sounds like a pretty idiotic risk management plan. Keep the border closed because of the potential new variants but then still open the border a few weeks later? Sounds exactly like something an inept group of people would decide with regards to a risk management plan.


Yep, the Omicron cases have blown up just like it has in every other country. This isn't some revelation, yet from the podium of truth the emperor was evangelizing how we would stamp it out.

Yes, like every other country - which we all knew was going to happen - but its about timing.
What happens if they have of said to open it up on the 14th, and we found that we still had a relatively small number of cases. Then what? push it back again? Disrupt everything?

They made a plan, which when they did would have given them a little bit of leeway.
That way everyone can make their plans, and the country can get its internal isolation process up and running.

[DrTiTus]

Here's the 3rd party hospital data if anyone cares. I don't really take much from hospital data: in the vaccine's defense, we don't actually know why these people are in hospital, so it's kind of irrelevant. Could be cancer, broken arm, overnight observation for blood pressure, etc. rather than for exclusively COVID-related problems.



It would be an argument for vaccination if people were mostly unvaccinated, but I don't think it could be used as an argument against vaccination as it is. That's why I look at positive cases, because this is a pandemic, R-values, spread, all those good terms we have come to know and love. It's the spreading which is considered "selfish" and the argument for mandates.

There are some interesting features in the graph - the total trend stands out (trending down, then shooting up). Also the unvaccinated were actually higher until quite recently - could this be from vaccination rates changing, or maybe the new variant?

I won't draw any conclusions from this graph, but feel free to share your insights or ideas.

[Ab]

Labour: let them eat cake

[fixed_truth]

"As a precaution I carried on getting this routine testing given that I come into contact with vulnerable constituents. I am not and have not been symptomatic over that time. I apologise for not following the updated Ministry of Health guidance around asymptomatic testing."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...VHQRQFQA7QSUA/

[Ab]

Starting to see why the welly protestors are so pissed off.

[Ab]

“When the emergency is over of course we’ll relinquish all our emergency powers” said every government ever

Ardern cautioned that the traffic light system was likely to remain in place for the winter to combat not just Covid, but the return of the flu

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...6XKJOG63TUSUI/

[_indigo1]

Originally Posted by Ab

“When the emergency is over of course we’ll relinquish all our emergency powers” said every government ever



https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...6XKJOG63TUSUI/

That's a bit inflammatory Ab.

The flu is NZ's (discounting COVID) biggest infectious disease killer, killing on average 500 people per year.

What makes this PART of the COVID crisis, esp in terms of health care; is that COVID measures have kept the flu at bay for the last two years - which is great - but it definitely does NOT mean the next flu season we get will be business as usual.

With no way to track the previous seasons (in the opposite hemisphere) flu mutations and proliferation, there is no way for us to formulate a well working vaccine; and on top of that the way the virus evolves and reacts under this situation, these selection pressures, is wholly unknown and thus unpredictable.

It is wise to include the effect COVID has had on the flu in planning for the public health system this winter.
It's not about over-reaching these new powers to cover a situation we handled fine before without any of the new measures. It's a new situation as a direct result of COVID.

[sidbo]

I can see why. (IMHO)

Covid is gonna fuck a fair number of people respiratory systems, add a flu to that later and it'll end badly.

There was something I read about the long term mortality rate of Covid, where we will be seeing deaths that are a result of previous infections causing mortalities that otherwise were unlikely to happen. There are likely to be deaths "because" of Covid but not "with" Covid.

My research, yadda yadda yadda, and no I'm not bothering to dig out a link. Take with as much salt as you choose necessary because FREEDOM!

[fixed_truth]

20 fuckin whacks lady gives her 2c

https://youtu.be/oRMs1jotqHc

[Ab]

oh that's good!

[sidbo]

[MadMax]

Well yes, they should have the freedom of choice to end their lives. Oh look at them screaming mercy on their death beds!

[Cyberbob]

Had a bit of a heated discussion with the in-laws tonight. They’re vaccinated but far more worried about the long term effects of the vaccine & booster than they are of Covid.

[_indigo1]

Originally Posted by Cyberbob

Had a bit of a heated discussion with the in-laws tonight. They’re vaccinated but far more worried about the long term effects of the vaccine & booster than they are of Covid.

I suffer from a chronic illness, and the third vax has really kicked my arse (first two were totally fine) - I had a really strong immune reaction (a normal one, but really strong) - but a month on and I'm still having major issues. Sleep patterns totally changed, depression, apathy, myalgia, pressure headaches behind my eyes, numbness in my little fingers and along the bottom of my hands/arms, random pins and needles episodes. I just don't feel like the same person since I had the booster.

I believe I understand what's going on. The immune response to the vax has reactivated latent EBV (glandular fever) virus which most of us carry.

This is thought to be what is at least in part responsible for long covid.
Its a very rare reaction and totally to do with the state of me and not specifically the vaccine.

However that doesn't make it any greater to be dealing with this on top of my other health conditions.

I've barely sought medical help for it beyond registering it with a GP and the CARM database, because in this information climate I doubt it'd be taken seriously - and even if it was there is nothing anyone could do to speed up recovery - and I know enough to work on that myself.

In fact I'm surprised at myself for even writing this because I generally keep it to myself as one camp can use it as ideological ammo, the other can use it as a reason to dismiss, minimise, and undermine symptoms.

But even with all that aside, yes I am mad at the unexpected inconvenience of having it sprung on me at an inopportune time; but the reality is that if the small amount of spike protein in the vaccine was able to stir my B lymphocytes up enough to release the latent EBV; then full COVID damn well would have - but I'd be dealing with COVID on top of it.

It was my choice to take it vs the (likely) possibility of contracting omicron at some point - and it was the right choice.

So yeah. The argument of vaccine triggered effects vs COVID effects is stupid.

At least in my case I was able to experience these effects as distinct from a COVID infection; which has provided me vital information that has allowed a quick (self) diagnosis and treatment to get me back on track on MY terms.

If I had full COVID, these symptoms would be lost in the mess and who knows when I'd even realise I had something else going on.

[fixed_truth]

Originally Posted by _indigo1

But even with all that aside, yes I am mad at the unexpected inconvenience of having it sprung on me at an inopportune time; but the reality is that if the small amount of spike protein in the vaccine was able to stir my B lymphocytes up enough to release the latent EBV; then full COVID damn well would have - but I'd be dealing with COVID on top of it.

Exactly. And that's what a lot people who won't get vaccinated don't understand. If you have a chronic illness or have health issues then (unless not recommend by your doctor) that's a really good reason to get vaccinated.

[Ab]

Covid-19: Unvaccinated children can take part in sport and school-based activities under phase 3

“If you are participating in a school-organised activity, the vaccine pass, the vaccine requirement will not apply,” (Hipkins) said during a press conference in Wellington on Friday. “We never want students to be excluded from school activities on the basis of their vaccination status.”

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...-under-phase-3

[Cyberbob]

Originally Posted by Cyberbob

Cases in NZ if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Sat: 2206 1957—2462
Sun: 2664 2352—2991
Mon: 3212 2824—3626
Tue: 3870 3379—4398
Wed: 4652 4038—5317
Thu: 5584 4816—6436
Fri: 6691 5732—7750

Doubling time is 3.3 days.

How the week went:

Sat: 1,816
Sun: 2,336
Mon: 2,230
Tue: 2,845
Wed: 3,183
Thu: 6,128
Fri: 12,011

[blynk]

Originally Posted by Cyberbob

How the week went:

Sat: 1,816
Sun: 2,336
Mon: 2,230
Tue: 2,845
Wed: 3,183
Thu: 6,128
Fri: 12,011

The week average matches. I wonder if the delay in tests has just meant that the is a bigger jump Thu/Fri when people could start usings the RATs rather than waiting several days.

[blynk]

Looking at some of the infection numbers a week later, it is showing that the vaccine definitely is not stopping people from getting it.
The Vax vs UnVax would fall with a margin of error.

The hospitalisation of the Unvax is about 2.5 times higher, but its still a relatively small number, that if it hit 1 household, that could skew them a bit.

But as the number start to skyrocket even more, that will start to show the full picture.

There is the unknown caveat still of what is the likelihood that someone that is unvaxed would go get a test.

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

Ow, my Y-axis.

[blynk]

Love the graph. Looks like by the first few days of March we will have 10m daily cases

[Ab]

Those facts look so rapey!

[Lightspeed]

I don't think it's quite that insistent.

[blynk]

Posted it in the other chat, but with the current data that is coming through, I go along with the view that mandates, passes & QR codes could all be scrapped.

Omicron is infecting Vax the same as Unvax, so its not stopping people getting it (although I haven't looked at the numbers split for the booster)

An elevation in the numbers of Unvax going to hospital, but those numbers are still pretty small and could be within a margin of error.
But the mandates and passports are not going to stop that anyway.

I somewhat agree with everything the government has done up to recently, but it's time to just scrap it.

Saw a similar article pop up this morning too.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...ld-be-scrapped

[Cyberbob]

David Seymour tweeted yesterday that "The “daily case numbers” are nothing to do with Covid-19 in the community. They’re a reflection of how many tests the Government has managed to process. Media should stop reporting “daily case numbers” and start reporting the Government’s performance at processing tests."

While it's not strictly the government processing tests, he does have a point on the numbers. The number of reported cases is not the same as the number of new cases in the community. Some of that delta will be from asymptomatic people, some of that will be from people refusing to get tested, but is there anything to say whether or not there's a backlog of tests delaying reporting?

Any idea what the turnaround time is for tests at the moment? If I have symptoms and seek a test today, do I make tomorrows numbers?