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Old 12th August 2020, 11:18     #1001
Native
I... err - F*ck It.
 
We're 3 degrees of separation away from one of the infected - Guy A.

1st degree was the guy B that works in the same room in an office as Guy A.

2nd degree was that Guy B drinking with Guy C (Brother in Law) for the whole weekend at a stag party in Auckland (which was a surprise that my BIL didn't want but participated in anyhow).

3rd degree is that said Guy C (BIL) spent a couple of days with us this week.

Guy B (And his whole office) and Guy C (entire stag party) are all getting tested today.

Given the incubation period, Group B and Group C won't be cleared for at least 10 days (Day 3 test and Day 10 test).

Which means me and the missus are locked down for the next 2 weeks regardless.

Zero chance of this only being a couple of days.
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Old 12th August 2020, 11:38     #1002
Ajax
Architeuthis
 
Russia claims to have a working vaccine, calls it Sputnik
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Old 12th August 2020, 11:53     #1003
crocos
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajax
Russia claims to have a working vaccine, calls it Sputnik
I like how they are so proud that of all the research institutes founded in 1891, THEY are the leading one.

So very specific.
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Old 12th August 2020, 11:55     #1004
pxpx
 
lol call the grammar police, the ruskis missed a comma :P
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Old 12th August 2020, 15:02     #1005
Nothing
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Native
We're 3 degrees of separation away from one of the infected - Guy A.

1st degree was the guy B that works in the same room in an office as Guy A.

2nd degree was that Guy B drinking with Guy C (Brother in Law) for the whole weekend at a stag party in Auckland (which was a surprise that my BIL didn't want but participated in anyhow).

3rd degree is that said Guy C (BIL) spent a couple of days with us this week.

Guy B (And his whole office) and Guy C (entire stag party) are all getting tested today.

Given the incubation period, Group B and Group C won't be cleared for at least 10 days (Day 3 test and Day 10 test).

Which means me and the missus are locked down for the next 2 weeks regardless.

Zero chance of this only being a couple of days.
I don't have such a specific chain of connections, but we're self isolating too because a member of our household shares a workplace with someone who had it. Probably no direct contact with that person, but you know, we're taking a precautionary approach.
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Old 12th August 2020, 15:06     #1006
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
The “index case” – the first case the Government found out about – is a person in their 50s who lives in south Auckland, the Ministry of Health said.

They were swabbed on Tuesday after displaying symptoms for five days, including a fever and a cough. They were tested again to confirm the positive result.

The person had no overseas travel history or immediate link to someone who did, or a high-risk worker such as someone who worked at a managed isolation hotel or at the border.

The “index case" works for a finance company which has since shut down and 130 people are now being followed up and tested. Three people at this workplace are symptomatic.

The partner of the first case has also tested positive and a second workplace, in Auckland's Mt Wellington, with 160 staff and four sites across Auckland has been closed, with employees also being tested.

The third case is a woman, in her 20s, who travelled to Rotorua on Saturday with four others on the weekend of August 9.

The fourth case is a pre-schooler who also travelled to Rotorua.
Lot of potential disaster in that description.

At least two workplaces, one with multiple offices; every single touristy place person 3 visited in Rotovegas, every person she travelled with, plus every place they stopped on the way; possibility of a preschool. This is starting to feel like chapter one of The Stand.

I was hoping that this family would be members of a household containing a quarantine worker or an airline steward or something obvious. Doesn't look like it though.
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Old 12th August 2020, 15:21     #1007
xor
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pxpx
Good to see everyone panic buying again. Morons.
Panic buying is a completely rational response imo. People rightly don't trust the supply chain to deliver there goods/services so are stocking up. If a plague impacted up to 10-15% of the population then i think it would be pretty hard to convince someone to stack shelves in a supermarket for minimum wage.
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Old 12th August 2020, 15:25     #1008
Lightspeed
 
Cheesy grin

Quote:
Originally Posted by pxpx
lol call the grammar police, the ruskis missed a comma :P
Certainly, it would be a losing fight for any grammar Nazis.
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Old 12th August 2020, 15:47     #1009
crocos
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pxpx
lol call the grammar police, the ruskis missed a comma :P
And here's me thinking they were deliberately wording it very specific so that no one could dispute the claim of "the leading institute..."

Yes I know it was a grammar mistake - it was still amusing.
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Old 12th August 2020, 21:09     #1010
blynk
 
I think they will be extremely wary of going to L4.
If they feel they have a handle on the tracing of it in the next 3 days, then they may leave it at L3 for 2 weeks.
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Old 12th August 2020, 21:17     #1011
blynk
 
Everytime I see a Adern/Bloomfield/Labour conspiracy, Im going to start posting this.

Collins has a few weeks to settle into the role and then how convenient, there is community transfer from an unknown source. Basically the 1 way that National had any chance of winning - having another outbreak & postponing the election.
What's the first thing Collins talks about with Hoskings not even 12 hours after the annoucement - that they need to postpone the election.

This has all the hallmarks of a slimy National tactic.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/13...nal-party-now/
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Old 12th August 2020, 21:40     #1012
Nich
 
Every developed country on lock down has no good reason to continue to be if it turns out all we need is 15-20% to reach herd immunity instead of 80-90% previously thought.

New York, London, Stockholm (where people are generally well-nourished and have good immune systems) all showing signs that the virus has burned through at around the 15-20% infected mark.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...-immunity.html

It may be less about COVID-19 specific antibodies, and more about general coronavirus-fighting T-Cells.


But never underestimate the power of big pharma with their eyes on a lucrative government contract to inject entire populations with their rushed-to-market COVID-19 vaccine. Science and reason are out the window while fear and greed rule the day.
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Old 12th August 2020, 22:12     #1013
DrTiTus
HENCE WHY FOREVER ALONE
 
Just don't live in a big city with overpriced housing and enjoy life.
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Old 13th August 2020, 09:05     #1014
xor
 
The Spanish flu managed get to Alaska within 6months of the outbreak. The gods do not care about your provincial township el friendo.

So, what's the plan with the lock down? What is it going to achieve? Will it deny a highly contagious virus from spreading? Will it delay it? I've got no idea what the goal is.
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Old 13th August 2020, 17:02     #1015
Nich
 
The goal is to "flatten the curve" and stop hospitals from exceeding capacity. We surely all remember the videos out of Wuhan, then Iran, then Italy showing hospitals packed shoulder to shoulder, and morgues running out of storage space. These videos were evidence enough that something needed to be done to avoid the same fate as these countries.

In that context, knowing as little as we knew then, lock downs were very sensible. But it's a big experiment because we have no evidence that we can bring the R0 to below 1 through these measures. and we have no evidence that we can't either ("Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" - Taleb)

The polite thing to do is for us to all to attempt social distancing, mask wearing and measure the results:
- If it succeeds we can all clap eachother on the back and say "job well done!"
- If it fails we should quickly recognise it has failed and stop pretending we can get stricter and stricter until it actually starts working

By drawing out our first wave (yes, IMO we're not in the second wave yet), we risk turning COVID-19 into a rolling epidemic that is given time to mutate and maintain its intensity.


But as we linger in this waiting place waiting for COVID-19 cases to spike or drop away, more opportunists are getting into position and may benefit from an extended lockdown period:
- Big pharma needs the fear to be maintained long enough for them to bring vaccine products to market
- Big Tech needs the fear to be maintained so they can sell contact tracing and surveillance products
- Politicians always love a good crisis to push through their Patriot Act-level reforms
- And other "Pro Freedom" people are coming out of the woodwork... mostly harmless noise makers for now. Until suicides exceed COVID-19 deaths, then they have a point.


As an aside -- If any "Pro Freedom" libertarians get up in your face about the lock downs / mask wearing, remind them of their non-aggression principle. Knowingly or unknowingly infecting even one other person is to harm that person.
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Old 13th August 2020, 22:19     #1016
xor
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
The goal is to "flatten the curve" and stop hospitals from exceeding capacity. We surely all remember the videos out of Wuhan, then Iran, then Italy showing hospitals packed shoulder to shoulder, and morgues running out of storage space. These videos were evidence enough that something needed to be done to avoid the same fate as these countries.

In that context, knowing as little as we knew then, lock downs were very sensible. But it's a big experiment because we have no evidence that we can bring the R0 to below 1 through these measures. and we have no evidence that we can't either ("Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" - Taleb)

The polite thing to do is for us to all to attempt social distancing, mask wearing and measure the results:
- If it succeeds we can all clap eachother on the back and say "job well done!"
- If it fails we should quickly recognise it has failed and stop pretending we can get stricter and stricter until it actually starts working

By drawing out our first wave (yes, IMO we're not in the second wave yet), we risk turning COVID-19 into a rolling epidemic that is given time to mutate and maintain its intensity.


But as we linger in this waiting place waiting for COVID-19 cases to spike or drop away, more opportunists are getting into position and may benefit from an extended lockdown period:
- Big pharma needs the fear to be maintained long enough for them to bring vaccine products to market
- Big Tech needs the fear to be maintained so they can sell contact tracing and surveillance products
- Politicians always love a good crisis to push through their Patriot Act-level reforms
- And other "Pro Freedom" people are coming out of the woodwork... mostly harmless noise makers for now. Until suicides exceed COVID-19 deaths, then they have a point.


As an aside -- If any "Pro Freedom" libertarians get up in your face about the lock downs / mask wearing, remind them of their non-aggression principle. Knowingly or unknowingly infecting even one other person is to harm that person.
Will less people die if the govt locks down the economy again? My 2c says it won't. I think it's just delaying the inevitable and as a result it's psychologically fucking with people, as well as expediting the ruin of the economy.

The virus has a long incubation period and is easily transferable from one to another and i don't see how any quarantine can be effective.
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Old 13th August 2020, 23:04     #1017
Lightspeed
 
I feel the goal of "flatten the curve" was the minimum we were trying to achieve, so as to encourage people not to give up completely. But really, beating the virus, with every community quarantined until they had, that was the more desirable goal, and completely achievable in different circumstances. But in the absence of global leadership, it's an interesting question of how countries with the successful measures that are clearly possible will re-enter the global economy.

One thing we have to deal with is the volume of people who cope with their miserable lives by chasing money. They're going to be like addicts cut off from their fix.

There doesn't seem to be any consideration of a war economy.
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Old 13th August 2020, 23:39     #1018
Lightspeed
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by xor
Panic buying is a completely rational response imo. People rightly don't trust the supply chain to deliver there goods/services so are stocking up. If a plague impacted up to 10-15% of the population then i think it would be pretty hard to convince someone to stack shelves in a supermarket for minimum wage.
It's understandable in the sense that many people aren't especially engaged with the world and only really have knee-jerk responses when the world starts impinging on whatever niche they've etched out for themselves.

But for anyone thinking things through, panic buying would be too little, too late. If they were really that worried.
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Old 14th August 2020, 02:33     #1019
Nothing
 
Fuck. This is not good.

I was wondering if something like this was going to happen. Like, how do we prevent people who work at or in quarantine facilities and at the border, coming into contact with all of those people who might have it, from acquiring the virus and spreading it among the general population?

If they get the virus, it's probably some time before they return a positive test, and if they only test once a week, and they become infectious several days before their weekly test, then they could be walking around spreading the virus in the general population for several days before they return a positive test themselves.

I think that working in the managed isolation facilities, quarantine facilities, or in any other border control role needs to be something like doing a tour of duty overseas; while you're on the job, you're not at home, effectively not in NZ. You're doing a tour of duty among the infected, maybe it's 3 - 6 months long; you're very well remunerated for this time, and when it's done, you do your own 14 day stint in quarantine with, 2 negative tests before you get back into the general population. A couple of months off, and then if you go back, you're once again going back to a work place that effectively means you're not in NZ. That's the job.

I think anything short of this, and we're just going to keep seeing the virus get through, over and over again.

I'm also worried that a bunch of swing voters will go "Well, Labour made a boo-boo, time to vote for National" and that this will therefore have a big impact on the outcome of the election. That's dangerous.

It's true that National weren't responsible for this blunder, but the fact that they weren't responsible for this blunder does not imply that they would do a better job of managing our border.

They might make any number of other mistakes, and in addition, they haven't had the time to build their team and be prepared to manage something like this, and they also haven't had the opportunity to learn from mistakes they have made, as the current government is presently engaged in doing.

We should stick with the team that has got SOME experience doing the right thing. Mistakes were inevitable regardless of who was going to be in charge (they've happened in pretty much every country all over the planet). We have to allow them a reasonable number of mistakes, so that they can learn to do better.

If we swap out to another team, we'll be swapping to a team that hasn't had the experience of managing our border under these conditions. That will make a whole lot more mistakes much more likely.

Last edited by Nothing : 14th August 2020 at 02:34.
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Old 14th August 2020, 09:42     #1020
Know me.
 
I like the tour of duty idea.

The public service is separate from government. If National gets in they aren't going to do a Trump and just sack everyone.
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Old 14th August 2020, 10:57     #1021
blynk
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nothing
...
It's true that National weren't responsible for this ...
I don't know about that.

It's more plausible than the government conspired to release it, or they knew about it a whole week earlier.
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Old 14th August 2020, 11:51     #1022
Nothing
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Know me.
The public service is separate from government. If National gets in they aren't going to do a Trump and just sack everyone.
Yes, but ministers in the government become the effective leaders of the various public services. A change in leadership inevitably brings with it a certain amount of additional confusion.
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Old 14th August 2020, 11:55     #1023
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nothing
Not good? It’s fucking disastrous. It’s evidence of utter incompetence.
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Old 14th August 2020, 11:56     #1024
Nich
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by xor
Will less people die if the govt locks down the economy again? My 2c says it won't.
Yep, agreed.

We'll get the same number of people infected regardless, but not necessarily the same number of deaths if we do succeed in flattening the curve. With time comes better treatment and therapy, so in that sense it is better to delay the inevitable infections so health workers can treat people correctly (ie not intubate everybody who presents with low blood/oxygen).


Then there's the economic cost of delaying the spread, and deaths from despair.

We'll never be able to verify and make an evidence-based case comparing suicide by lockdown to death by COVID unless media starts actually reporting on it:
Journalists must overcome their reticence to report on suicide – now more than ever
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...more-than-ever

and we do know that there is an effort to improve suicide prevention programs anticipating increased influx of cases:
National suicide register needed soon to manage increased risk from coronavirus
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-...surge/12208668
Quote:
Imagine trying to eliminate COVID-19 without knowing how many cases there are in Australia.

Many mental health advocates and non-profit organisations say that's the situation they're currently in, as they try to reduce suicide rates while relying on old figures.

But one of the nation's pre-eminent mental health advocates, Professor Pat McGorry, said it was difficult to try to reduce the death rate, because suicide statistics come with a lag time of up to two years.

So, we get daily COVID death rate, we get monthly unemployment numbers, we can track small business bankruptcy rates, and we know that suicide prevention efforts are being increased in response to something. Add to that that middle class are more in debt than any time in history, and social isolation amplifies despair. The conditions are perfect for lockdowns to cause more harm than the good of slowing the virus.

edit: from an Australian perspective, where eradicating the virus is not possible. New Zealand appears to have a chance to be completely free COVID.

Last edited by Nich : 14th August 2020 at 12:00.
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Old 14th August 2020, 12:33     #1025
Lightspeed
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
Not good? It’s fucking disastrous. It’s evidence of utter incompetence.
It's pretty bad. Maybe a problem the government hoped they could avoid, specifically finding a way to compel people to take these tests. It sounds like that would take legislation to be possible. Right now in absence of symptoms it doesn't sound like there's a legal way to compel people to take these medical tests.
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Old 14th August 2020, 12:53     #1026
Trigga*happY
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by blynk
Everytime I see a Adern/Bloomfield/Labour conspiracy, Im going to start posting this.

Collins has a few weeks to settle into the role and then how convenient, there is community transfer from an unknown source. Basically the 1 way that National had any chance of winning - having another outbreak & postponing the election.
What's the first thing Collins talks about with Hoskings not even 12 hours after the annoucement - that they need to postpone the election.

This has all the hallmarks of a slimy National tactic.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/13...nal-party-now/
You really think anyone would intentionally infect a community just to secure a handful of votes or move the election?

Is it possible? Of course! Probable? Hardly. Perhaps you should read up on Occams Razor.
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Old 14th August 2020, 12:57     #1027
Trigga*happY
 
What is wrong with western society as a whole right now? It seems EVERYONE is looking for a boogeyman to blame, something to be offended about, anything to be angry at. It's as though people seem to feel that life should be fair, and if it's not IT'S SOMEONE ELSE'S FAULT!! News flash guys. Bad shit happens... Get over it.
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Old 14th August 2020, 12:58     #1028
Nich
 
* Hanlon's Razor, in this case.
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Old 14th August 2020, 13:41     #1029
Nothing
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
Not good? It’s fucking disastrous. It’s evidence of utter incompetence.
Yes, I agree. But evidence of incompetence where exactly? Probably, Jacinda isn't responsible for running the day to day operations personally, she would have delegated that to someone else. Darryn Webb perhaps? It wouldn't surprise me to learn that there is some greyness as to exactly who was supposed to be responsible for this. Darryn Webb has been running the Quarantine facilities, so the staff are under his command, perhaps, but is Darryn Webb in charge of administering tests and when to do so? Or is that something that falls under Dr. Bloomfield's remit? I'm sure an enquiry will get to the bottom of who ought to have been managing this, I don't think we should leap to any conclusions just yet.

It's hard to be completely sure of the competence (or lack thereof) of people you delegate to. Incompetence can be so subtle, and can be caused by such a myriad of things, stress, boredom, inadequate expertise / knowledge, etc, etc. It's a long list.

The more people there are involved in running a show, the greater the scope for cockups becomes. Laying responsibility for every cockup at the government's door is just a recipe for unstable government.

Last edited by Nothing : 14th August 2020 at 13:44.
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Old 14th August 2020, 20:37     #1030
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Eric Crampton brings the pain (1)

Eric Crampton brings the pain (2)

Summary:

Quote:
The government chose to have this outbreak.

But it isn't just a failure of the political side of government.
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Old 14th August 2020, 21:38     #1031
Lightspeed
 
You can't suddenly change the terms of employment for a large group of people, especially when they're largely from one voting bloc.

I get that employees are typically considered trash who have to accept whatever might be thrust upon them should they want to keep their jobs. But employee protections do yet survive and carry weight in New Zealand.

Given the relative success so far, any option involving mandatory testing of workers would be far messier, involving contentious legislation.
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Old 14th August 2020, 23:11     #1032
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Read the commentary I linked above
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Old 14th August 2020, 23:38     #1033
Lightspeed
 
That's what I'm responding to.

Quote:
This is astonishing. In any sane system, agreeing to be tested regularly would be a condition of employment in the managed isolation and quarantine system.
Sure, IF you're applying for a new job. Are the managed isolation services all staffed by new hires? That doesn't seem like the case.

Quote:
The problem is simple. Section 11 of the COVID-19 Public Health Response Act 2020, assented to 13 May 2020, at Subsection 1, details the orders the Minister or the Director-General may make. The DG may make these orders if they are urgently needed and are the most appropriate way of addressing these matters. (Section 10).

Subsection 1(a)(viii) allows the Director General of Health to require persons to:

report for and undergo a medical examination or testing of any kind, and at any place or time, specified and in any specified way or specified circumstances:

That means the DG Health, Ashley Bloomfield, at any point could have issued an order requiring testing of MIQ and border staff if he thought it warranted.
I'm sceptical this could be effectively pulled off. You can't turn around and make testing a condition of employment for people where this wasn't already the case. At least not without push back.
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Old 15th August 2020, 00:03     #1034
blynk
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trigga*happY
You really think anyone would intentionally infect a community just to secure a handful of votes or move the election?

Is it possible? Of course! Probable? Hardly. Perhaps you should read up on Occams Razor.
No, but it's the other side of the argument to those that like to say that Labour did it because they are communists and are going to push through martial law
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Old 15th August 2020, 00:08     #1035
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightspeed
You can't turn around and make testing a condition of employment for people where this wasn't already the case. At least not without push back.
then you fire those people, problem solved
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Old 15th August 2020, 00:37     #1036
Lightspeed
 
That's a can of worms. There are the individuals who would no doubt take their employers to court. And given how those employed in these jobs largely belong to one of a few communities, there are political ramifications to consider.
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Old 15th August 2020, 03:08     #1037
DrTiTus
HENCE WHY FOREVER ALONE
 
Sounds like a ridiculous argument to me Lightspeed.

Contracts usually have a general clause like "will do what is asked by the employer in carrying out their duties".

You can't tell me that someone working frontline with COVID during a pandemic would a) refuse to be tested, b) take it to court/employment relations, and c) get found to be "within their rights" by a reasonable decision.

I understand your argument, I just find it to be weak.
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Old 15th August 2020, 03:46     #1038
Nothing
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
then you fire those people, problem solved
You might not even have to fire them, I imagine that most people would understand the reasons for the testing and not object to it, and the ones who don't would probably be a small enough number to be assigned to latrine duty or some such. Give them some inglorious role so that they're not being fired, but it's basically drudge work.
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Old 15th August 2020, 06:44     #1039
fixed_truth
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightspeed
That's a can of worms. There are the individuals who would no doubt take their employers to court. And given how those employed in these jobs largely belong to one of a few communities, there are political ramifications to consider.
Like this? - Coronavirus: Quarantine policy shift is 'racist', critics say

I don't think any quarantine system/procedures are watertight, nor that the previous one was that terrible. But I do think that what they've immediately responded & changed to now should have been happening already.
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Old 15th August 2020, 10:26     #1040
MadMax
Stuff
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightspeed
I get that employees are typically considered trash who have to accept whatever might be thrust upon them should they want to keep their jobs.
Speak for your own employer

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
then you fire those people, problem solved
bloody oath


The only people I've seen presenting any resistance to the likes of forced leave (you've got symptoms (that you'd otherwise normally come to work with) - go on sick leave now, get tested then you can come back after you're cleared of covid) are those that have no sick leave. Then there are those that are too dumb to know that their employer is leniant and will just make allowances.

With that stupidity comes the attitude of 'what a load of bs I don't have covid'. Going to work while knowingly sick causing your workplace to feature on the 6pm news would be gross negligence.
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