The Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Ajax]

While Russia may yet win due to sheer force of numbers, the invasion has been a complete fiasco for them so far. It really is unbelievable to see entire armoured columns in neat lines without any air support getting annihilated by small, mobile infantry squads.

[pxpx]

Originally Posted by Ajax

It really is unbelievable to see entire armoured columns in neat lines without any air support getting annihilated by small, mobile infantry squads.

Links to these reports? Not doubting just interested to read about it.

[Ab]

(moving stuff here)

[Lightspeed]

Russia has taken over 4k casualties so far, according to the Ukrainian UN representative.

I guess we'll see how much Russia is willing to grind this out, but I suspect not for that long.

[Ab]

I don't know how long Russia can AFFORD to keep this up.

[Cyberbob]

I'm amazed by the amount of action taken by EU and the surrounding countries.

Kazakhstan denied Russia requesting for their troops to be used as reinforcements.

Famously neutral Switzerland has moved to freeze Russian assets.

Basically everyone's agreed to kick Russia off of the key global banking system SWIFT.


My single worry, no matter how small, is that this is backing an extremely dangerous person into a corner.

[Ajax]

The endgame here seems to be mostly grim possibilities.

If Russia wins, Ukraine ceases to be an independent nation. States bordering Ukraine might then be threatened.

If the Russian leadership perceives themselves to be losing, they may start to escalate. A loss of face would be intolerable for Putin at this late stage, since it could result in regime change.

The stages of Russian weapons escalation could go something like this:

1. Thermobaric weapons
2. Carpet bombing of cities
3. Chemical weapons
4. Low-yield tactical nuclear weapons
5. Strategic nuclear weapons

Perhaps the best thing that could happen is that Putin is assassinated or removed in a palace coup.

[Ajax]

Ukrainian infantry destroying a Russian armour column (warning: contains battle footage). Just saw part of this clip on the 6 o'clock news.

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/s...89301596594180

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Ajax

The endgame here seems to be mostly grim possibilities.

If Russia wins, Ukraine ceases to be an independent nation. States bordering Ukraine might then be threatened.

If the Russian leadership perceives themselves to be losing, they may start to escalate. A loss of face would be intolerable for Putin at this late stage, since it could result in regime change.

The stages of Russian weapons escalation could go something like this:

1. Thermobaric weapons
2. Carpet bombing of cities
3. Chemical weapons
4. Low-yield tactical nuclear weapons
5. Strategic nuclear weapons

Perhaps the best thing that could happen is that Putin is assassinated or removed in a palace coup.

Agreed to all the above, with two additions: every other former Soviet republic will be on the "you're next" list, and given that Estonia is now a member of NATO that could be awkward; and any independent European nation that isn't a NATO member but might be considering it will go on the "you're next" list too. Including Sweden and Finland.

Russia seems to have no air cover to speak of and it's a logistics clusterfuck, with no food, water, or fuel. When hungry Russian soldiers start putting down their weapons and walking away, and Putin actually hears about it, shit might get real ugly.

[DrTiTus]

I got a snap from a friend just now: "Yes ) we are free )"

I asked shto?, and she said "Well, my city is free. Russian asshole go away"


I also got more snaps yesterday with smiles in them, instead of tears and worry - one of my friends sent one firing a mortar shell - she was the only one who served, the rest fled to safety. Can't be losing too badly if you've got time to take videos and send snaps.

Ukraine for the win~~ (for now - they didn't think they would get invaded either)

[Ab]

Check an exchange rate chart, the ruble has just dropped off a cliff against the USD.

[Ajax]

Bank runs look to be starting in Russia. ATMs getting drained everywhere.

[Ab]

Kyiv Independent reporting that Zelenskyy has formally requested EU membership for Ukraine.

This guy is a machine.

[StN]

Originally Posted by Ab

This guy is a machine.

Crikey. - not wrong!

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Ajax

Bank runs look to be starting in Russia. ATMs getting drained everywhere.

As markets opened in a panic on Monday, many Russians rushed to local cashpoints in Moscow to retrieve their savings before the damage got any worse.

“It said they had dollars so I came here immediately,” said Alexei Presnyakov, 32, pointing to an app for Russia’s Tinkoff Bank, indicating he could withdraw hard currency. About 20 people were queued in line. “Yesterday [the rate] was 80 [to the dollar]. Today it’s 100. Or 150.”

“I just made a spontaneous decision today that I would ask [out of work] and go around until I took out all my money,” he said. “Before it was worth zero.”

Within minutes, however, the word traveled down the queue: the dollars were gone.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...t-of-no-return

[Ajax]

Originally Posted by Ab

Agreed to all the above, with two additions: every other former Soviet republic will be on the "you're next" list, and given that Estonia is now a member of NATO that could be awkward; and any independent European nation that isn't a NATO member but might be considering it will go on the "you're next" list too. Including Sweden and Finland.

Yes and what else happens to a victorious Russia? They'd be facing a vicious insurgency funded by some of the world's wealthiest countries. They'll be a pariah state cut off from the international financial system, with citizens unable to travel. New iron curtain goes up along their borders. What the fuck are they thinking?

[Cyberbob]

Best sanction yet.

Vladimir Putin's Black Belt Revoked by International Taekwondo Organization

[Lightspeed]

For some reason I really enjoy Sergiy Kyslytsya's angry quips. Just the way he seethes.

[DrTiTus]

Originally Posted by Ukrainian

Russian troops are killing civilians. We took home a woman with a baby in their yard

I hope you guys don't mind me posting things from Ukrainians. It's just what people on the ground are saying. Tell me to quit it if you don't want to hear them.

[blynk]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

I hope you guys don't mind me posting things from Ukrainians. It's just what people on the ground are saying. Tell me to quit it if you don't want to hear them.

As long as you aren't going against the overwhelming consensus and posting things that are trying to justify what Putin is doing, I think you are all good

[Savage]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

I hope you guys don't mind me posting things from Ukrainians. It's just what people on the ground are saying. Tell me to quit it if you don't want to hear them.

I've been finding it enlightening Hope your friends over there are all safe.

[Ab]

@Ukraine put out a call for cryptocurrency donations last night and I got on board. Might as well use teh blockchains for something positive. Guess I'm helping pay for a military operation now.

Edit update: Ukraine accepting donations via

BTC
357a3So9CbsNfBBgFYACGvxxS6tMaDoa1P

ETH and USDT
0x165CD37b4C644C2921454429E7F9358d18A45e14

DOT
1x8aa2N2Ar9SQweJv9vsuZn3WYDHu7gMQu1RePjZuBe33Hv

(as per https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1497594592438497282)

[Ab]

Gavin Wood just donated 5.5 million USD of Polkadot in one transaction.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Ajax

Yes and what else happens to a victorious Russia? They'd be facing a vicious insurgency funded by some of the world's wealthiest countries. They'll be a pariah state cut off from the international financial system, with citizens unable to travel. New iron curtain goes up along their borders. What the fuck are they thinking?

This article asks the same thing, and the answers are all awful.

https://flip.it/Y9k92J

Trigger warning: NYT

[Ajax]

Alexander Lukashenko may have accidentally shown a strategic map displaying Russian troops attacking Moldova after Ukraine (also could be a disinformation tactic)

https://www.newsweek.com/lukashenkos...oldova-1683935

[Lightspeed]

I dunno about disinformation, those fullas look shook.

[Cyberbob]

Originally Posted by Ab

This article asks the same thing, and the answers are all awful.

https://flip.it/Y9k92J

Trigger warning: NYT

FTFY


Half the time this gets around paywalls every time.

[Savage]

Originally Posted by Cyberbob

FTFY


Half the time this gets around paywalls every time.

<3

[Ajax]

Oil price making some power moves in the last couple of days.

[Know me.]

Lots of commodities are making big pushes up. Could have a big impact on inflation if the war continues. All oil (US/brent/heating), all gas, some metals like Palladium, copper, iron, nickel, aluminum, zinc. some at multi year highs or ATH. Wheat, lumber

Good summary by Patrick Boyle. His videos are entertaining.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QlpTlz073k

[Lightspeed]

In the meantime Ukraine is having all its shit fucked up.

Still, if we manage to avoid apocalypse, a bunch of good might come of all this, right? Amongst various things, there's this push to recognise US oligarchy, with the focus on Russian oligarchy.

[_indigo1]

First of all, SLAVO UKRAINE!

On the flipside - is anyone else at all wondering about the second humanitarian disaster the world will face when the Russian economy completely implodes and the innocent Russian people are starving and paying the price?

And another thing - I'm not sure I'm on board with this cancel Russia thing.
It seems like an extreme version of virtue signalling cancel culture.

I mean - don't get me wrong - I am TOTALLY on board with making them feel it in practical terms with sanctions and targeting oligarchs etc.
Even to a certain extent the major sporting events removing Russian teams.

But when every western company starts to make noises about removing Russian aspects of their products - things like removing Russia from FIFA games, and other arbitrary gestures - I feel it's kind of crossed a line from actively supporting Ukraine in a practical way to pure signalling - and it gives me distinct feels of aversion to that sick cancel culture undercurrent in the far left - but more importantly how is it going to go undoing all this shit if, for example, Putin was toppled somehow and a new more rational Russian leader took over.

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by _indigo1

On the flipside - is anyone else at all wondering about the second humanitarian disaster the world will face when the Russian economy completely implodes and the innocent Russian people are starving and paying the price?

Well, that's Afghanistan right now. I doubt Russia will plunge to those levels however.

[Ajax]

If energy prices continue for long on this trajectory we’ll be staring down the barrel of another global recession, combined with a high inflation environment. It’s a nightmare economic scenario. This war is everyone’s problem, or soon will be.

[DrTiTus]

Originally Posted by Ukrainian

Everything is bad. We haven't water, light, and warm. So without light and electric, I'm starving )))))))))

Good to see she's smileying, but I know what it's like in a power cut, and it would be even worse to have no water too. Fuck that. There's only so many packets of chips or muesli bars you can eat before you crave a cooked meal or even noodles or a glass of water. Eek. I think there's snow there, so you can have a dirty old glass of melted snow. Watch out for the rubble. Interestingly she's still on her phone, so I'm not sure what's up with that. It must be localised power outages.

Originally Posted by UkrainianFighter

the firing did not stop during the negotiations. and negotiations will obviously be useless, if Putin surrenders, he is removed from the presidency, he cannot allow this, therefore he will fight to the end. today he plans to strike as much as possible on civilians

That was from yesterday morning our time. I haven't been following the news/politics of the situation so I don't know if this played out as expected.

[blynk]

Originally Posted by _indigo1

But when every western company starts to make noises about removing Russian aspects of their products - things like removing Russia from FIFA games, and other arbitrary gestures - I feel it's kind of crossed a line from actively supporting Ukraine in a practical way to pure signalling - and it gives me distinct feels of aversion to that sick cancel culture undercurrent in the far left - but more importantly how is it going to go undoing all this shit if, for example, Putin was toppled somehow and a new more rational Russian leader took over.

FFS, I was waiting for the first time I heard either Cancel Culture, or Woke.
Its a fucking war, its not because some random person said something that upset someone.

Its unfortunate for the innocent people in Russia, but sitting around go "Putin, we are asking you nicely, please stop" is going to do nothing.

So you need to put pressure on him in other ways, and that is by affecting their economy and making his people put pressure on him.

[_indigo1]

Woah that's quite a bit of pent up response you've got there.
Dare I say triggered?

I'm not politically right and don't get into labelling, woke bashing and the like - I very rarely use those words - and in fact I prefer not to politically identify as anything except *me* because I think that just leads to polarisation and tribalism.

But I still think it's sickly all these companies jumping on the bandwagon.
What does not selling Russian vodka in a local store achieve?
Not *ORDERING* Russian vodka - no worries, that might impact people directly in Russia. But otherwise it's just signalling and I find it distasteful and non-genuine.

It's the same mob mentality as boycotting or defacing local Russian businesses.
There is a certain amount of pressure that is absolutely necessary and practical.
If it were really about putting pressure on everyday Russians, why do these companies even need to publish media that they are doing it? Just do it - you don't need to tell us.
I find it distasteful.

Your comment about asking Putin nicely to stop is ridiculous.

[_indigo1]

Also it's all fine and well to give the world a temporary moral pass on discriminating against an entire country given current circumstance - but it's a very slippery slope and it's exactly the kind of reds under the bed bullshit that reverberates through generations and long after the original justified reason has disappeared, the social programming lingers and is passed on - and is probably at least in part responsible for the geopolitical situation anyway.

I can very well see even Ukrainians being mistreated in western countries because they are overheard speaking and mistaken as Russian - I bet they were when the whole Russia Bad / Reds under the bed cold war mentality was in full swing.

Programming more inherent bias and hatred into the world is not what the world needs. Bias gets ingrained. Reason doesn't.

I'm not pushing back on support for Ukraine at all.
I just also have my eye on the flipside and can see a slippery slope that is not so easily deprogrammed.

[Savage]

Live stream of the nuclear power plant in UA where Russian forces have been engaged in a fire fight, including firing RPGs inside the plant.

What could go wrong?

[Caesar]

I was saying to the chaps at work today, if the worse did happen and some nuclear waste was release, it would be funny (but obviously very bad) and fitting if it blew back towards Russia.

Lets hope that doesn't happen tho...