Random Thoughts II

[Thomas Meatball]

Important pieces of equipment are failing around here. So far three things are dead. Employing workarounds where possible. All in all, pretty lol. I'm not letting it grind my gears. It was only a matter of time really. That's what happens when you run a tech company but don't put money into the tech.

[Cyberbob]

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

[Thomas Meatball]

Depends if you want goats or a car. Myself, I'd ask if I can stick with door no 3.

[Thomas Meatball]

Amputations spark meat plant probe

The Labour Department is investigating a Southland meat plant after claims 12 staff lost 13 fingers between them while using bandsaws in the past 18 months.

Among those injured was one person who returned to working on the saws after losing a finger only to lose another, The Southland Times reported.

Labour Department southern regional manager Sheila McBreen-Kerr said about 20 incidents at the Talleys-owned South Pacific Meats plant involving serious harm had been investigated during the past two years.

"Many of these involved bandsaws...the amputation of fingers, or parts of fingers, and serious lacerations to fingers and hands." Ms McBreen-Kerr told the newspaper.

The high number of incidents showed a long-running disregard for health and safety issues in the use of bandsaws, she said.

wat?! Is this fucken CHINA? What is this amateur hour shit?

[Juju]

Originally Posted by Cyberbob

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

I remember this very question from that movie about smart kids who go to vegas and win lots of money.

The answer is yes it is.
I still don't know how, even though it was explained in the movie.


Ninja edit: here you go:
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/in...1192424AAc9p0D

[Warrick]

rah

[crocos]

Originally Posted by Warrick

Can some nerd advise me accordingly? My PSU is fucking weak and should've been replaced when I upgraded 2 years ago.

You've answered your own question: Replace the PSU.

You fucking nerd.

[Thomas Meatball]

Originally Posted by Cyberbob

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Monty Hall problem

I still say go with the goats. They will give you more love than a car ever will.

[Warrick]

Originally Posted by crocos

You fucking nerd.

That hurt my feelings

[Nightcrawler]

Originally Posted by Thomas Meatball

How much she pay for it new?

20k
Popped into the Nissan dealer. Apparently it's a very bad time to try and sell cars at the moment. They've had nothing sold for 3 weeks, and so can't justify buying her car

Price down to $12,000 now. Fun times

[p01s0n]

lol why would you spend $12k on a second hand micra when you can get a brand new suzuki swift with a warranty etc for $18k?

[chiquelet]

Originally Posted by Nightcrawler

I'm just trying to help out

In other words, she'll do nothing, you'll do everything?

[Bandalador]

God, he is thinking that this will charm her undies right off and he can pound her vag' ok?
She's probably a minger if she drives a retarded car like that anyway, don't know why he'd bother.

[crocos]

Originally Posted by Warrick

That hurt my feelings

Poor baby. You'll just have to come to Welly and give me a slap.

Originally Posted by p01s0n

lol why would you spend $12k on a second hand micra when you can get a brand new suzuki swift with a warranty etc for $18k?

Probably because you didn't have the extra $6K spare, would be my guess.

A better question would be why would anyone, ever, buy a Micra?

[Thomas Meatball]

Originally Posted by crocos

Poor baby. You'll just have to come to Welly and give me a slap.

You'll get slapped from a knuckle sandwich is what you'll get.

[crocos]

Mmmm... Sheeps knuckles are tasty.

[Thomas Meatball]

Are you calling Warrick a sheep?

[Nightcrawler]

Originally Posted by chiquelet

In other words, she'll do nothing, you'll do everything?

Not at all. I offered to post it on some forums I use. She's been doing the leg-work.

Originally Posted by crocos

A better question would be why would anyone, ever, buy a Micra?

Haha Had quite a few people interested in it for their parents/grandparents, so I guess that says enough

[crocos]

Originally Posted by Thomas Meatball

Are you calling Warrick a sheep?

If so he's the one of the strangest looking sheep I've seen. Fully right up there with that one that was on Stuff (etc) a while back.

[Thomas Meatball]

Damn your jokes are sucks.

[p01s0n]

Originally Posted by crocos

Poor baby. You'll just have to come to Welly and give me a slap.


Probably because you didn't have the extra $6K spare, would be my guess.

A better question would be why would anyone, ever, buy a Micra?

yeah but new car finance rates are stupid low and with sales not really pushing at the moment, dealers are keen to agree to anything.

So the extra $5 a week you pay towards the extra $6k is gonna seem minute compared to the first time you need maintenance on the car you bought without a warranty. Warranty's are often invaluable if you just want a reliable car you can drive.

[Deadmeat]

Originally Posted by Cyberbob

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

the chart halfway down this page explains in a really clear way why it is the way it is
http://www.marilynvossavant.com/articles/gameshow.html
Also the responses from various PhDs about how stupid the author is are hilarious.

[Warrick]

i'm addicted to the poker channel on justin. might have to go pro

[tarzan007]

anyone know what the fireworks in Auckland currently are in celebration of??

[fidgit]

Originally Posted by p01s0n

So the extra $5 a week you pay towards the extra $6k is gonna seem minute compared to the first time you need maintenance on the car you bought without a warranty. Warranty's are often invaluable if you just want a reliable car you can drive.

but you've got the CGA!

[Thomas Meatball]

Originally Posted by tarzan007

anyone know what the fireworks in Auckland currently are in celebration of??

In celebration of Warrick becoming a pro poker player.

[Warrick]

It's a celebration bitch!!!

[madmaxii]

I, on purpose, join you fellows (and fellowess's) through the nzgames.com portal to enjoy the "quote of the moment". Seeing the names there just shows how many of our contributors have disappeared into the mists of time. Where are you all ? We need an antidote to TM, XOR, et al. Come on chaps (of both sexes (PC I am)) - into the fray!!

[?>Superman]

GG stuff

[Thomas Meatball]

Originally Posted by madmaxii

We need an antidote to TM, XOR, et al.

What the fuck for?

[Cyberbob]

Originally Posted by Deadmeat

the chart halfway down this page explains in a really clear way why it is the way it is
http://www.marilynvossavant.com/articles/gameshow.html
Also the responses from various PhDs about how stupid the author is are hilarious.

I knew the problem, I was curious to see if I could start the next "plane on a treadmill" issue on here ;D

It's pretty interesting. Most people can't figure out why it matters if the host takes away a known bad choice, or the fact that it doesn't automagically change from 1/3 to 1/2 just because you've taken one away.

[Spoon1]

No, it's still just 50%.

The 3rd choice is illusionary, there is no 3rd choice. If no matter what you choose, one of the wrong choices is removed each time then there are really only 2 choices and you might as well start off with just 2 doors/cups whatever.

The real diagram should be:

Game 1: AUTO GOAT - switch and lose
Game 2: GOAT AUTO - switch and win
Game 3: AUTO GOAT - stay and win
Game 4: GOAT AUTO - stay and lose

To reiterate, your choices are between either "a door with a car" or "a door without a car". 50/50

[herp]

Originally Posted by madmaxii

Seeing the names there just shows how many of our contributors have disappeared into the mists of time.

Just saw Trvln Nzlmn on the quotes DB.

[DrTiTus]

Even when given a completely unambiguous statement of the Monty Hall problem, explanations, simulations, and formal mathematical proofs, many people still meet the correct answer with disbelief.

[Trigga*happY]

Originally Posted by Cyberbob

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Don't pick either door, use Schrödinger's experiment - so long as the door stays closed it's both a goat and a car! Win/Win!

[Saladin]

Originally Posted by Trigga*happY

Don't pick either door, use Schrödinger's experiment - so long as the door stays closed it's both a goat and a car! Win/Win!

Only Scumbag would consider a goat a win. Or possibly Rince.

[Juju]

Originally Posted by Spoon1

No, it's still just 50%.

The 3rd choice is illusionary, there is no 3rd choice. If no matter what you choose, one of the wrong choices is removed each time then there are really only 2 choices and you might as well start off with just 2 doors/cups whatever.

The real diagram should be:

Game 1: AUTO GOAT - switch and lose
Game 2: GOAT AUTO - switch and win
Game 3: AUTO GOAT - stay and win
Game 4: GOAT AUTO - stay and lose

To reiterate, your choices are between either "a door with a car" or "a door without a car". 50/50

It's not 50/50. Read more.

[Spoon1]

I have.

Read my post again.

[Warrick]

MIT says you're wrong.

[gentle]

Originally Posted by Spoon1

I have.

Read my post again.

You're trying describe the gamblers fallacy, which isn't the solution to the problem outlined in the game show problem. The 1/3 chance arises from a conditional probability situation.