Pre-election 2014 thread

Ab · 22nd January 2014, 21:07

Right now, 22 Jan, Labour+Green > National. That's just a primary vote comparison, not "Seats in the House".

ilk · 22nd January 2014, 22:17

Huh I'm surprised but gladdened by the lack of Colin Craig

fixed_truth · 22nd January 2014, 22:37

National Party 43.5% (down 1.5%)
Labour Party 33.5% (up 3%)
Green Party 12.5% (down 2%)
NZF 4% (down 1%)
Conservative 2.5% (up 0.5%)
Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%)
United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%)
Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%)
ACT NZ 0% (unchanged).
Others 1% (up 0.5%)

Ab · 24th February 2014, 01:51

new Colmar Brunton out tonight:

Party Support

National 51.0% (+6.0%)
Labour 34.0% (nc)
Green 8.0% (-5.0%)
ACT 0.4% (-0.1%)
Maori 0.9% (-0.5%)
United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
NZ First 3.1% (-0.8%)
Conservative 1.3% (-0.3%)
Projected Seats

National 64
Labour 44
Green 11
ACT 1
Maori 3
United Future 1
Mana 1
NZ First 0
Conservative 0
Total 125
This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/125 – three more than minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 44 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 56/125 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125
On this poll there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

John Key 43% (+1.0%)
David Cunliffe 10% (-2.0%)
Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Charismo' · 24th February 2014, 02:20

not that I'm following it that closely, but it seems like there's a real drought of serious competitors. I don't like John Key but it doesn't seem there is anybody else to choose from. I mean, Winston Peters? hell no.

Don't know much about Cunliffe. I see he raised questions about the Huawei mess with all the contracts in NZ for the ultrafast broadband stuff which I quite like the sound of.

I hate the way John Key is a US lackey in terms of security/data sharing etc. Really hate that.

pxpx · 24th February 2014, 09:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ab

Preferred PM

John Key 43% (+1.0%)
David Cunliffe 10% (-2.0%)
Winston Peters 4% (nc)

10%.. wow.

Hey Charismo, why do you disagree with data-sharing with the US? They are one of our allies? Would you rather we not be allied with the US? Are you a terrorist? (nb: last question was facetious)

Ab · 24th February 2014, 14:15

Long way out from the election, anything can happen. But 40% of the Green vote disappearing in one hit has got to be a worry.

CCS · 24th February 2014, 15:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ab

Long way out from the election, anything can happen. But 40% of the Green vote disappearing in one hit has got to be a worry.

Nats up 6%, Greens down 5%, Lab no change... the bald numbers kinda suggest the Nats increase is in large part due to Greens moving over to Nat. If so... LOOOOOL!

spigalau · 24th February 2014, 15:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by CCS

Nats up 6%, Greens down 5%, Lab no change... the bald numbers kinda suggest the Nats increase is in large part due to Greens moving over to Nat. If so... LOOOOOL!

More likely the Green vote went over to Labour, and Labour both shed & gained 5%.

CCS · 24th February 2014, 15:37

Ah well, that would still mean that somewhere in the region of 5% went from Lab to Nat. Which is still pretty lolish.

Lightspeed · 24th February 2014, 16:26

Polls, lolz.

CCS · 24th February 2014, 16:38

Ab · 24th February 2014, 17:49

?>Superman · 24th February 2014, 19:10

fixed_truth · 25th February 2014, 15:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

Polls, lolz.

I think there is an underlying trend in the past month but yeah, this poll does seem a bit whack.

spigalau · 25th February 2014, 15:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by fixed_truth

I think there is an underlying trend in the past month but yeah, this poll does seem a bit whack.

Perhaps the general public has finally figured out that the Greens aren't the Greens of old (Rob & Jeanette) and are now a bunch of fruit loops & whackos ?

fixed_truth · 25th February 2014, 16:43

Seems a bit of an illogical explanation to me and I've not come across it from any political commentator yet. But yeah, who knows. Maybe they magically did have a change of heart!

CCS · 25th February 2014, 16:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by spigalau

Perhaps the general public has finally figured out that the Greens aren't the Greens of old (Rob & Jeanette) and are now a bunch of fruit loops & whackos ?

The Greens of old are fruit loops and whackos too, just a different kind.

Ab · 26th February 2014, 12:38

Oh lol, if this is true then time to start investing in popcorn futures.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...-staff-sources

Quote:

Labour sources have this morning confirmed former Alliance president Matt McCarten will be party leader David Cunliffe's new chief of staff.

CCS · 26th February 2014, 14:48

wtf?!

Also, did McCarten's Unite Union ever pay their tax bill?

Ab · 26th February 2014, 15:58

I don't think so. Which means every single Labour punchline about "getting corporations to pay their fair share of tax" just went out the window.

Seriously, when I first saw the headline I thought it was a joke. This is insane.

...if it's the 2014 election Cunliffe is trying to win....

CCS · 26th February 2014, 17:06

Quote:

Labour leader David Cunliffe says his new chief of staff, Matt McCarten, provides "hope" and that the pair have "amazing chemistry".

Quote:

"With Cunliffe, I can't escape the feeling that he has the same phoniness as the Republican US presidential nominee Mitt Romney."
...
"What is discomforting is his every nuance and action seems calculated."

pxpx · 26th February 2014, 17:12

Is this real life?

Ab · 26th February 2014, 17:28

Quote:

The original Ponsonby cafe interview venue was changed because the subject didn't want his potential blue collar supporters to think he was some latte-sipping w***** swanning around Auckland's liberal ghetto. The fact he lives a stone's throw from Ponsonby Rd (miles away from his New Lynn electorate) reveals more.

Cunliffe's angst with his interviewer about where he should be photographed was plain narcissism. Not at the beach as he could be lampooned as if his career were drowning; not on a lawn or he could described as a snake in the grass.

A satire scriptwriter high on cocaine couldn't make this stuff up.

THAT'S SOME CHEMISTRY THERE ALL RIGHT

fixed_truth · 26th February 2014, 17:36

I don't always agree with what McCarten has to say and there's the chance his leftwingedness might scare some middle swingers. But, if anyone can motivate and organise the massive block non-voters (800000?), it's McCarten.

Lightspeed · 26th February 2014, 17:37

Ab · 26th February 2014, 17:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by fixed_truth

I don't always agree with what McCarten has to say and there's the chance his leftwingedness might scare some middle swingers. But, if anyone can motivate and organise the massive block non-voters (800000?), it's McCarten.

And you reason for saying that is...? I can't think of anything McCarten's ever been involved with that hasn't turned to shit.

StN · 26th February 2014, 20:11

What about his elocution lessons? Oh...

fixed_truth · 26th February 2014, 20:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ab

And you reason for saying that is...? I can't think of anything McCarten's ever been involved with that hasn't turned to shit.

OTTOMH he got some good results with Unite, also he has a lot of political experience including involvement with both Maori party and Mana so probably has a lot of useful campaigning contacts on the left.

CCS · 26th February 2014, 21:44

Yeah, he had some really good results with Unite. He did a bang up job of not paying tax.

I'm not sure what it is that he actually achieved for the Mana party. I'm not sure how much of Maori party's success was down to McCarten. Maybe his expertise is more suited to fledgling new parties rather than long established parties like Labour?

StN · 27th February 2014, 07:42

Act - going for the inbreeder vote?

spigalau · 27th February 2014, 10:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by StN

Act - going for the inbreeder vote?

Would that the be the existing Green block ?

StN · 27th February 2014, 10:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by spigalau

Would that the be the existing Green block ?

Plus Gore, Ashburton and Waimate I think...

fixed_truth · 28th February 2014, 08:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by StN

Act - going for the inbreeder vote?

As 'correct' is position on this may be; sadly there's places where politicians shouldn't tread because of headline whores.

Ab · 28th February 2014, 13:00

Politician says something perfectly sensible, headline whores go mental.

CCS · 28th February 2014, 13:32

Hey, that's mainstream news these days. Whyte and Craig need to learn that. "Act into sister sex? We'll tell you more after the break!"

Lightspeed · 28th February 2014, 13:34

That's right. Politics is a source of entertainment in the news, it's not really a source of news. Well, the news isn't a source of news I suppose.

Ab · 3rd March 2014, 14:31

Labour leader uses secret trust to launder campaign donations, what could possibly go wrong?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11212625

Ab · 3rd March 2014, 19:36

February aggregate of all polls. Good month for National.

spigalau · 4th March 2014, 08:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ab

Labour leader uses secret trust to launder campaign donations, what could possibly go wrong?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11212625

The words Trust & Labour should not be used in the same sentance. Am still pissed that they promised and then cut my 'chewing gum tax cut'... bstrds.

22nd January 2014, 21:07	#1
Ab A mariachi ogre snorkel	Pre-election 2014 thread Right now, 22 Jan, Labour+Green > National. That's just a primary vote comparison, not "Seats in the House".

24th February 2014, 15:37	#10
CCS Stunt Pants	Ah well, that would still mean that somewhere in the region of 5% went from Lab to Nat. Which is still pretty lolish. __________________ I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner?

24th February 2014, 16:38	#12
CCS Stunt Pants	__________________ I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner?

26th February 2014, 14:48	#20
CCS Stunt Pants	wtf?! Also, did McCarten's Unite Union ever pay their tax bill? __________________ I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner?

26th February 2014, 20:11	#28
StN I have detailed files	What about his elocution lessons? Oh... Last edited by StN : 26th February 2014 at 20:12.

22nd January 2014, 22:17	#2
ilk	Huh I'm surprised but gladdened by the lack of Colin Craig __________________ "I choose to believe what I was programmed to believe!"

22nd January 2014, 22:37	#3
fixed_truth	National Party 43.5% (down 1.5%) Labour Party 33.5% (up 3%) Green Party 12.5% (down 2%) NZF 4% (down 1%) Conservative 2.5% (up 0.5%) Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%) United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%) Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%) ACT NZ 0% (unchanged). Others 1% (up 0.5%) __________________ Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong. Last edited by fixed_truth : 22nd January 2014 at 22:40.

24th February 2014, 01:51	#4
Ab A mariachi ogre snorkel	new Colmar Brunton out tonight: Party Support National 51.0% (+6.0%) Labour 34.0% (nc) Green 8.0% (-5.0%) ACT 0.4% (-0.1%) Maori 0.9% (-0.5%) United Future 0.3% (+0.2%) Mana 0.0% (-0.3%) NZ First 3.1% (-0.8%) Conservative 1.3% (-0.3%) Projected Seats National 64 Labour 44 Green 11 ACT 1 Maori 3 United Future 1 Mana 1 NZ First 0 Conservative 0 Total 125 This is based on no change in electorate seats. Coalition Options CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/125 – three more than minimum needed to govern CL – Labour 44 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 56/125 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125 On this poll there would be a centre-right Government. Preferred PM John Key 43% (+1.0%) David Cunliffe 10% (-2.0%) Winston Peters 4% (nc)

24th February 2014, 02:20	#5
Charismo'	not that I'm following it that closely, but it seems like there's a real drought of serious competitors. I don't like John Key but it doesn't seem there is anybody else to choose from. I mean, Winston Peters? hell no. Don't know much about Cunliffe. I see he raised questions about the Huawei mess with all the contracts in NZ for the ultrafast broadband stuff which I quite like the sound of. I hate the way John Key is a US lackey in terms of security/data sharing etc. Really hate that.

24th February 2014, 14:15	#7
Ab A mariachi ogre snorkel	Long way out from the election, anything can happen. But 40% of the Green vote disappearing in one hit has got to be a worry.

24th February 2014, 16:26	#11
Lightspeed	Polls, lolz. __________________ Stay shook. No sook.

25th February 2014, 16:43	#17
fixed_truth	Seems a bit of an illogical explanation to me and I've not come across it from any political commentator yet. But yeah, who knows. Maybe they magically did have a change of heart! __________________ Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong.

26th February 2014, 15:58	#21
Ab A mariachi ogre snorkel	I don't think so. Which means every single Labour punchline about "getting corporations to pay their fair share of tax" just went out the window. Seriously, when I first saw the headline I thought it was a joke. This is insane. ...if it's the 2014 election Cunliffe is trying to win....

26th February 2014, 17:36	#25
fixed_truth	I don't always agree with what McCarten has to say and there's the chance his leftwingedness might scare some middle swingers. But, if anyone can motivate and organise the massive block non-voters (800000?), it's McCarten. __________________ Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong.

26th February 2014, 17:37	#26
Lightspeed	Who? __________________ Stay shook. No sook.

24th February 2014, 19:10	#14
?>Superman	^lol

26th February 2014, 21:44	#30
CCS Stunt Pants	Yeah, he had some really good results with Unite. He did a bang up job of not paying tax. I'm not sure what it is that he actually achieved for the Mana party. I'm not sure how much of Maori party's success was down to McCarten. Maybe his expertise is more suited to fledgling new parties rather than long established parties like Labour? __________________ I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner?

27th February 2014, 07:42	#31
StN I have detailed files	Act - going for the inbreeder vote?

28th February 2014, 13:00	#35
Ab A mariachi ogre snorkel	Politician says something perfectly sensible, headline whores go mental.

28th February 2014, 13:32	#36
CCS Stunt Pants	Hey, that's mainstream news these days. Whyte and Craig need to learn that. "Act into sister sex? We'll tell you more after the break!" __________________ I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner?

28th February 2014, 13:34	#37
Lightspeed	That's right. Politics is a source of entertainment in the news, it's not really a source of news. Well, the news isn't a source of news I suppose. __________________ Stay shook. No sook.

3rd March 2014, 14:31	#38
Ab A mariachi ogre snorkel	Labour leader uses secret trust to launder campaign donations, what could possibly go wrong? http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11212625

3rd March 2014, 19:36	#39
Ab A mariachi ogre snorkel	February aggregate of all polls. Good month for National.