USA Presidential Election 2016 Hype Train

[Lightspeed]

The run up to the election feels like how it might feel losing traction while driving and all you can do is wonder if you'll plunge off the cliff or slam into the bank. You know you're fucked, it's a question of how fucked.

[Nothing]

Originally Posted by Ab

This "new emails" clusterfuck over the weekend looks like a massive, well, clusterfuck. Like an FBI Director personally trying to fuck a candidate for office in the last ten days of a campaign. It's nuts.

None of the previous shit has stuck though, why should this shit be any different? She's just about as non-stick as Teflon John.

[Ab]

Because it's nothing. But for some reason it's all the US media appears to be focused on.

Trump: under investigation for everything from fraud to child rape, refuses to release tax returns, is probably receiving blackhat campaign assistance from the Russian government, is embezzling from his own campaign

Clinton: used a standalone email server for correspondence


WELL HOLY FUCK THEY'RE BOTH JUST AS BAD AS EACH OTHER

[CCS]

Originally Posted by Ab

Clinton: used a standalone email server for correspondence

Playing it down a tad?

[Ab]

Well how would you describe it?

[CCS]

As I understand it, she was handling classified emails on it and it wasn't properly secured. It wasn't just a private setup so that she could easily swap recipes with her friends and look at pictures of the grandkids.

[sidbo]

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...th_russia.html

[Ab]

Originally Posted by CCS

As I understand it, she was handling classified emails on it and it wasn't properly secured. It wasn't just a private setup so that she could easily swap recipes with her friends and look at pictures of the grandkids.

here's a pretty dry summary:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...il-server.html

[DrTiTus]

Steve Pieczenik has a few words re Clintons

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ov5kvWSz5LM

[DrTiTus]

Originally Posted by CCS

look at pictures of the grandkids.

It's starting to sound like it's not just her own grandkids she had pictures of.

[blynk]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

It's starting to sound like it's not just her own grandkids she had pictures of.

You mean she may have had pictures of Mr Weiners wiener

[Ab]

lolita express y'all

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12zVlaZyX3Q

[ZoSo]

Noted, while reading other waffle around here.

[fixed_truth]

Could be a handy endorsement . . . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7I4Fkiu2nak

Also makes me thankful for MMP here

[DrTiTus]

And of course the terror attack announcement, right on time...

[CCS]

It's just a few days out from the election and it's interesting to see where fivethirtyeight has the candidates in their forecast. Clinton has been sliding since her high of the 3rd debate but her likelihood of winning is still at 64.5% (polls-plus forecast). That's not to say she's a dead cert, as one may have been tempted to say when she was at 85.3%, but 64.5 ain't bad when you look at the forecast for the electoral votes.

I don't see much changing for her forecast-wise in the next few days. But what could count against her, as Nate Silver puts it, is "there are far more undecided and third-party voters this year, which could lead to a last-minute swing, or a polling error, and makes the model more cautious." Polls only go so far and they can't predict what might happen on the day where undecideds are concerned. Fivethirtyeight's forecast also doesn't include early voting. Trump still has a sniff of winning. Clinton may lose some crucial states when the undecideds make up their mind in the polling booth. Trump has more must-win states than Clinton does.

But my feeling is that she'll get more electoral votes on the day despite the popular vote being less than 3 points separated. Clinton will win, Trump will claim it's rigged and there will be some angry rallies as the right wingers shed tears of rage and disbelief in much the same way they did when Obama first won.

What will be interesting is how close fivethirtyeight's forecast ends up being against the results, on a state-by-state basis. Nate Silver correctly picked 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and all 50 states plus DC in 2012.

And then there's the Senate.

[fixed_truth]

Originally Posted by CCS

But my feeling is that she'll get more electoral votes on the day despite the popular vote being less than 3 points separated. Clinton will win, Trump will claim it's rigged and there will be some angry rallies as the right wingers shed tears of rage and disbelief in much the same way they did when Obama first won.

It's funny/sad that this is the best outcome and it's still pretty shitty.

The best scenario for the GOP will be hoping Trump fucks off so all they'll have to do in 2020 is stand someone who's not widely disliked.

[Charismo']

I think the email thing is overblown except for one thing. those emails on her private server wouldn't have turned up under the request for information act stuff, if they weren't leaked. I don't really think that's ok. but otherwise, meh.

[fixed_truth]

I don't get the (seemingly) high proportion of African Americans who aren't voting because they don't like either Trump or Clinton. It's not just that they're risking the worst candidate sneaking through; I would think that in the context of fairly recent American history they wouldn't want other people making their choices for them??

[CCS]

Small bump for Clinton.



Required reading: Election Update: The Campaign Is Almost Over, And Here’s Where We Stand

States to watch: Florida, North Carolina.

[Cyberbob]

Originally Posted by CCS

States to watch: Florida

What Could Go Wrong.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Charismo'

those emails on her private server wouldn't have turned up under the request for information act stuff, if they weren't leaked.

wtf?

[CCS]

2016’s Election Data Hero Isn’t Nate Silver. It’s Sam Wang

It's a long article so I've just skimmed over it, but the difference is that Wang seems to be saying that he's accounted for uncertainty in his modelling.

This year, Wang called the election at 8:55 PM on October 18. He promised to eat more than just his hat if Clinton loses: “It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug,” Wang tweeted to his 23,000 followers. He expects Clinton to receive at least 298 electoral votes.

That's not wildly out of line with fivethirtyeight's, which I believe don't/can't account for uncertainty.

[fixed_truth]

I hope all these statistics geeks are right!

Donald Trump Has No Path to Winning Presidential Election

[Deadmeat]

[ZoSo]

https://news.vice.com/story/live-ele...ith-votecastry

Votecastr info on Vice seems to show it going easy for Clinton so far.

[blynk]

whats a good site to watch it unfold. I assume one of the main news sites.

[Deadmeat]

The snark on the guardian live blog has been running pretty strong all election.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...n-results-live

Cash bar at the trump victory party..

[Deadmeat]

some other links
bbc live blog http://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-us-2016-37899679

nbc live feed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deh3phE97ok

abc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TTiDlK4vS8

pbs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lL-gicgoCAY

aljazera https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YnlX4CkPDY (watching on freeview theyve come out with a lot of interesting stuff)

[ZoSo]

cnn results: http://us.cnn.com/election/results

[CCS]

Politico seems to update as results come in, state by state.

Decision Desk HQ

And of course fivethirtyeight

538 seems to have picked Clinton will edge out Trump in Florida. If so, election over - Clinton wins.

538 final forecast. Clinton 302 - Trump 235. That's all you need to know, folks. You can go back to fucking your hand or playing LoL or whatever you kids do.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by CCS

538 seems to have picked Clinton will edge out Trump in Florida. If so, election over - Clinton wins.

I wish that were so, but if Trump loses FL but takes NC and OH doesn't that keep him in it?

[CCS]

Can't say I've done the maths but yes, I believe that would keep him in. But I basically defer to 538 on election matters because Silver is my golden god. He looks to have forecast both FL and NC for Clinton, so without doing any maths, I reckon that would give Clinton the race.

[CCS]

CNN has an interesting interactive electoral map. Hit begin, then 2016 (I can't link directly).

They've tallied the states they think Clinton and Trump will each win, then the battleground states. If you give ALL the batteground states to Trump, he gets 270. If you give Clinton any single one of those (except Nebraska) she wins.

That's just CNN's numbers, but interesting all the same as it illustrates how difficult it would be for Trump to win.

[Deadmeat]

Originally Posted by Ab

I wish that were so, but if Trump loses FL but takes NC and OH doesn't that keep him in it?

Common wisdom seems to be saying that if Trump loses FL then some real cray cray shit would have to go down for him to clear 270

[CCS]

Dump trucks filled with sand acting as barricade outside both Trump and Clinton locations, to protect against explosive attacks. NYPD forming perimeter security. Holy shit. America is nuts. People thought Obama giving inauguration speech from behind bullet proof glass was crazy. Where is Clinton giving hers from? Air Force One circling over an undisclosed location? Flying dump trucks as escorts?


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11744907

[Ab]

I just got off the phone with a good friend in the USA, older white upper-middle-class dude whose opinion I trust in just about everything, and he's fucking scared. Not just that Trump might win but that America is going to lose it's fucking mind no matter who wins. Like, armed insurrection crazy.

[CCS]

There's a lot of people in the US who say shit like "Ah'm gurna pick up mah guns if [Obama, Clinton, etc] wins. So far it hasn't happened. But I wonder what the boiling point is? Will they reach it post election? Or will it continue to be tough talk by people who don't have the stones to carry out their threats?

[Deadmeat]

From the coverage i've seen I would have thought the Tea Party was a stronger/more united sect than the (seemingly) more isolated/individual Trump crazies.

Oh shit i still had time to edit!

[Deadmeat]

16,000 vote difference in Florida atm >_<