Polls July 2011

Ab · 27th July 2011, 13:50

Fairfax this time.

Lots of numbers but the ones people are talking about are:

Party support:
National 56%
Labour 29%

Preferred PM:
Key 53%
Goff 6%

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...d-govern-alone

wugambino · 27th July 2011, 13:54

No need for alarm guys

Quote:

Labour leader Phil Goff has dismissed a dire new poll result for his party, saying it doesn't reflect support for Labour's proposed capital gains tax.

"When people understand it they are changing their vote and they're changing it in our direction"

crocos · 27th July 2011, 13:57

Sample-size is also a factor: Under 1% of eligible voters.

CCS · 27th July 2011, 14:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by wugambino

No need for alarm guys

Quote:

Labour leader Phil Goff has dismissed a dire new poll result for his party, saying it doesn't reflect support for Labour's proposed capital gains tax.

"When people understand it they are changing their vote and they're changing it in our direction"

Lawl wut? When people... understand it? This is the policy that Trevor Mallard they shouldn't get "dragged down into the detail on" because "The public don't care and we get boring"? HAHAHAHAHA!

Actually, isn't this the policy that every expert said is needed but in its current form is no good?

...

HAHAHAHAHA!

Don't worry, Goff. The public will change their vote in your direction. Just keep telling yourself that as you drift off to slumberland every night, clutching your teddy.

pervy · 27th July 2011, 14:42

1004 voters sampled..... out of a possible 3.2 million voters.

0.03% of the possible voting population; if I was him I wouldn't be too worried either.

Ab · 27th July 2011, 14:59

All the polls seem to have a thousand-person sample size, and all the polls are basically saying the same thing.

I guess they could all be calling the same group of a thousand people who hate Phil Goff.

Ajax · 27th July 2011, 15:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by pervy

1004 voters sampled..... out of a possible 3.2 million voters.

0.03% of the possible voting population; if I was him I wouldn't be too worried either.

Margin of error for a sample of ~1000 is approximately +/- 3%.

doppelgänger of someone · 27th July 2011, 15:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wikipedia

A 3% margin of error means that if the same procedure is used a large number of times, 95% of the time the true population average will be within the 95% confidence interval of the sample estimate plus or minus 3%. The margin of error can be reduced by using a larger sample, however if a pollster wishes to reduce the margin of error to 1% they would need a sample of around 10,000 people. In practice, pollsters need to balance the cost of a large sample against the reduction in sampling error and a sample size of around 500–1,000 is a typical compromise for political polls.

[WanG] Wandarah · 27th July 2011, 15:44

No idea what the above post is meant to be pointing out.

^BITES^ · 27th July 2011, 15:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by [WanG] Wandarah

No idea what the above post is meant to be pointing out.

Its a typical amount of people to poll based on cost versus accurate data ... eg its a non-issue .. move along.

Juju · 27th July 2011, 16:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phil Goff

Lightspeed · 27th July 2011, 16:10

Hahaha.

doppelgänger of someone · 27th July 2011, 16:11

pervy is saying: it is crazy that the opinion of 1000 persons can represent 4 million people.

The maths is saying it is NOT crazy: if the sampling of 1000 people out of those 4 million is random, then the poll is about 95% accurate, and at most the result is off by about 3%, i.e. if the random poll of 1000 says 56% support National, there is about 95% chance the support of National is about 53%-59% (i.e. 56% +/-3%) in the 4 million people.

What that wikipedia blurb is saying: if you want to improve on accuracy of the poll, i.e. reduce margin of error of 3%, to 1%, you have to call 10000 persons instead of 1000. Given the benefit of getting slightly more accurate result vs. huge increased cost of calling 10 times the people, usually sample size is kept at 1000.

CCS · 27th July 2011, 16:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by doppelgänger of someone

pervy is saying: it is crazy that the opinion of 1000 persons can represent 4 million people.

Pervy is saying it's a bit less than 4 million...

just sayin

[WanG] Wandarah · 27th July 2011, 16:28

Oh right, yeah, it had just been directly above your own post, Dopple. I thought perhaps you were mental - and were trying to rebuff the post saying the same thing you said, by making the same point.

Glad to know there's no mentals 'round here then. Carry on!

Golden Teapot · 27th July 2011, 16:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ajax

Margin of error for a sample of ~1000 is approximately +/- 3%.

But only if the poll is conducted properly. And, it won't have been. Polls are conducted by phoning landlines. Poor people don't have landlines. Need I write more?

pervy · 27th July 2011, 17:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by Golden Teapot

But only if the poll is conducted properly. And, it won't have been. Polls are conducted by phoning landlines. Poor people don't have landlines. Need I write more?

Especially in the case of a poll run by a media organisation i.e. Fairfax.

crocos · 27th July 2011, 17:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by Golden Teapot

Poor people don't have landlines.

Neither do people that CBF dealing with a landline when they use their cell for everything, even when at home.

I've just finished a large piece of analysis where one of the things hilighted was that lack of a home landline was basically not indicitive of anything financial.

Furry Crew · 27th July 2011, 17:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by crocos

Neither do people that CBF dealing with a landline when they use their cell for everything, even when at home.

I've just finished a large piece of analysis where one of the things hilighted was that lack of a home landline was basically not indicitive of anything financial.

This is very true....you're just as likely to ditch the land land because you can afford to do all your local calls on your mobile etc etc.

In my mind the only thing you're more likely to be if you have a land line is older than the average person that doesn't have a land line.

Ajax · 27th July 2011, 17:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Golden Teapot

. Poor people don't have landlines. Need I write more?

Well, yes. You need to justify your statement that poor people don't have landlines.

Spink · 27th July 2011, 18:53

I'm assuming you can refuse to answer the poll too? what's the demographic on people who'd actually take the time to answer that shit - I know I hang up whenever I hear that dead inside voice that pollsters/telemarketers/charities/foreign scammers have.

fixed_truth · 30th July 2011, 14:53

Voters prefer Labour policy but not party: Poll

Quote:

Voters prefer Labour's remedy for the economy over National's, according to the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey - but they still don't like the doctor.

Quote:

Jon Johansson, a politics lecturer at Victoria University, said the poll showed that even when Labour had ideas that met with public approval the voters were not receptive to the "current messenger."

"There's no hiding the fact that the public are not responding to a Phil Goff-led Labour."

Yep, and they're going to in the future either.

fixed_truth · 30th July 2011, 15:15

27th July 2011, 13:50	#1
Ab A mariachi ogre snorkel	Polls July 2011 Fairfax this time. Lots of numbers but the ones people are talking about are: Party support: National 56% Labour 29% Preferred PM: Key 53% Goff 6% http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...d-govern-alone

27th July 2011, 13:57	#3
crocos	Sample-size is also a factor: Under 1% of eligible voters. __________________ Ξ √ Ω L U T ↑ ☼ N وكل يوم كنت تعيش في العبودية

27th July 2011, 14:42	#5
pervy	1004 voters sampled..... out of a possible 3.2 million voters. 0.03% of the possible voting population; if I was him I wouldn't be too worried either.

27th July 2011, 14:59	#6
Ab A mariachi ogre snorkel	All the polls seem to have a thousand-person sample size, and all the polls are basically saying the same thing. I guess they could all be calling the same group of a thousand people who hate Phil Goff.

27th July 2011, 15:44	#9
[WanG] Wandarah	No idea what the above post is meant to be pointing out.

27th July 2011, 16:10	#12
Lightspeed	Hahaha. __________________ Stay shook. No sook.

27th July 2011, 16:11	#13
doppelgänger of someone	pervy is saying: it is crazy that the opinion of 1000 persons can represent 4 million people. The maths is saying it is NOT crazy: if the sampling of 1000 people out of those 4 million is random, then the poll is about 95% accurate, and at most the result is off by about 3%, i.e. if the random poll of 1000 says 56% support National, there is about 95% chance the support of National is about 53%-59% (i.e. 56% +/-3%) in the 4 million people. What that wikipedia blurb is saying: if you want to improve on accuracy of the poll, i.e. reduce margin of error of 3%, to 1%, you have to call 10000 persons instead of 1000. Given the benefit of getting slightly more accurate result vs. huge increased cost of calling 10 times the people, usually sample size is kept at 1000.

27th July 2011, 16:28	#15
[WanG] Wandarah	Oh right, yeah, it had just been directly above your own post, Dopple. I thought perhaps you were mental - and were trying to rebuff the post saying the same thing you said, by making the same point. Glad to know there's no mentals 'round here then. Carry on!

27th July 2011, 18:53	#21
Spink	I'm assuming you can refuse to answer the poll too? what's the demographic on people who'd actually take the time to answer that shit - I know I hang up whenever I hear that dead inside voice that pollsters/telemarketers/charities/foreign scammers have. __________________ Weak hearts I rip.

30th July 2011, 15:15	#23
fixed_truth	*not __________________ Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong.