Polls Nov 2011

[Ab]

Herald:

Labour's support has slipped in the first week of the election campaign to below 30 per cent, in the latest DigiPoll survey released this afternoon.

Labour is on 29.1 per cent, the first time Labour has been in the 20s in the 12 years the Herald has been running DigiPoll surveys.

The poll will be running weekly until the election.

Labour's fall of 1.2 points over the week may not be much of a fall but it will be a psychological blow for the party to fall below 30 per cent.

The Green party on 10.1 per cent is its highest DigiPoll rating since the 2002 election campaign at the height of the Corngate GE crops scandal.

It would have 13 MPs under current polling.

No other party reaches 2 per cent in the party vote, but the Colin Craig-led Conservative Party has featured in Party vote ratings for the first time, with 1.1 per cent.*

That is higher than Act on 0.9 per cent, United Future on 0.5 and Mana on 0.1.

National's polling is up by 0.7 points to 54.2 per cent, which would give it a clear majority to govern alone.

* wtf

[ZoSo]

What? I thought Polls good for Left.

Monthly comparison for the Herald one:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=10763639

One's latest as well:
http://tvnz.co.nz/election-2011/nati...-shows-4502058

[CCS]

There's no wtf there. Act voters need somewhere to go and they'll be trying out Conservative. Colin Craig comes across as much more reasonable than most Act members, hasn't had time yet to develop any bad stigma. He has some daft policies though.

[fixed_truth]

polls polls bloody polls

Labour gains ground in latest poll - http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...in-latest-poll

Gap closes between Key and Goff in poll - http://www.3news.co.nz/Gap-closes-be...2/Default.aspx

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...-October-polls

[fixed_truth]

[fixed_truth]

All sorts of crazy shit going on in the latest herald digipoll - Poll shock as Nats drop under 50%

-National has plunged nearly five points to below 50 per cent in the past week
-Support for Mr Goff in the preferred PM stakes has surged 6.2 points to 17.9
-NZ First is within striking distance of the crucial 5 per cent threshold, with just 1.3 points to get there
-The Greens are also on the rise and would have 16 MPs - seven more.

[Furry Crew]

NZfirst
/facepalm


I blame you MMP!

[Golden Teapot]

I very much doubt that any of these surveys are based upon a properly stratified sample of NZ. The saving grace however is that those least well represented are exactly those who are least likely to vote too.

[ZoSo]

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4719/

September 20 - October 3, 2010 N 49.5 L 36.5
October 24 - November 6, 2011 N 53 L 26

Bit of a long bumpy slide on the old Roy.

[chubby]

Originally Posted by Furry Crew

ACT
/facepalm


I blame you MMP!

lets not forget the rest of that coin.

[Ab]

The weighted average of the five public polls released this week is:

National 52.6%, 67 seats
Labour 27.8%, 35 seats
Green 11.1%, 14 seats
NZ First 3,2%, 0 seats
Maori 1.5%, 3 seats (1 overhang)
ACT 1.1%, 1 seat
Mana 0.7%, 1 seat
United 0.4%, 1 seat (overhang)

[Torka]

Do political polls in NZ have the same problem as American ones

That being they're almost entirely based on calling landlines, which people under 35 disproportionately don't have anymore and elderly people disproportionately still do

[CCS]

NZ First 3,2%, 0 seats
Maori 1.5%, 3 seats (1 overhang)
ACT 1.1%, 1 seat
Mana 0.7%, 1 seat
United 0.4%, 1 seat (overhang

Lol MMP! So proportional! Don't worry, Phil Goff is gonna fix things so that none of these parties can ever form a government with National. PROPORTIONAL!

[Golden Teapot]

Originally Posted by Torka

Do political polls in NZ have the same problem as American ones

Yep.

[Rince]

Originally Posted by Ab

United 0.4%, 1 seat (overhang)

not if my electorate vote counts for anything....

[Ab]

One News:

Labour hits 10 year low in poll

National: down 1 point to 53%
Labour: down 2 points to 26%
Greens: up 4 points to 13%
Winston First: down 0.7 points to 2.2% *
Act: up 0.1 points to 1.6%
Maori Party: 1.6%
Conservative party: 1.4%
Mana: 1.3%
United Future: 0.3%

Preferred PM
Key 53%
Goff 13%


* THE FUCK? That's thousands of people!

[fixed_truth]

Labour hits ten year low in latest poll (TV One)

Support for Labour has dipped to a ten year low with the Green Party reaping the benefit, according to the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll.

National's level of support seems to be barely damaged by the ongoing "tea pot tape" controversy this week.

It is down one point since last week's poll to 51%, while Labour has dropped back to 26%, its worst showing for a decade.

The Green Party appears to be hoovering up Labour's support and is polling at a record high of 13%

NZ First climb polls on back of teapot tapes (tv3)

A 3 News Reid Reseach poll has Mr Peters on the move, up by 1.1 percent to 3.5 percent, and National down to its lowest level since it won the 2008 election.
National 50.2 (down 3.1)
Labour 27.4 (down 2.5)
Green 13 (up 2.8)
NZF 3.5 (up 1.1)
Act 1.8 (up 1.1)

edit: after Ab lol

[Ab]

One News: "tea tape has had no impact on polls!"
3 News: "tea tape has impacted on polls!"

Public: "STFU about the fucking tea tape and tell us something about policy"

[Evoke]

Originally Posted by CCS

There's no wtf there. Act voters need somewhere to go and they'll be trying out Conservative. Colin Craig comes across as much more reasonable than most Act members, hasn't had time yet to develop any bad stigma. He has some daft policies though.

I'd have thought ACT supporters would be going to Libertarianz since they're also "right wing" economically rather than socially. Conservative party seems more like Republicans (?) which I didn't think ACT were...

[CCS]

Disappointed that Greens are polling well but that's to be expected as lefties defect from Labour. Very surprised that Conservative are polling as well as they are.* Right wingers who find National too centrist for them and disillusioned with Act are splitting the vote I guess... might they be capable of getting an MP?


* I should clarify that: I'm surprised they poll that well for a new party.

[CCS]

Originally Posted by Evoke

I'd have thought ACT supporters would be going to Libertarianz since they're also "right wing" economically rather than socially. Conservative party seems more like Republicans (?) which I didn't think ACT were...

Who has even heard of Libertarianz? Colin Craig is doing a much better job of getting publicity for his party and the polls show it.

[cyc]

Don't forget that ACT has long lost its libertarian roots. They are really more about "fuck the crims" and social conservatism now and guess what the Conservatives stand for?

Who else wants to want the option of explicitly expressing disapproval of certain parties using their votes?

[Evoke]

yeh ccs and cyc you're both right, libertarianz don't even have a candidate in my electorate and there's no way they'd ever get party seats...

[[WanG] Wandarah]

I suppose I am by nature, a 'libertarian' - at least in its idealogical form. If not its practical.

So, I went to the website.

Then I decided I would vote for anyone but those numpty cunts.

[Ab]

Roy Morgan, released today

National (53%, unchanged)
Labour (24.5%, down 1.5%)
Green (13%, up 1%)
Winston First (3%, down 1.5%)
ACT (1.5%, up 0.5%)
United Future ( > 0.5%, unchanged)
Maori (3%, up 1%)
Mana (1%, unchanged)

I believe that's the first time Labour's sunk below the 25% mark.

[chiquelet]

Originally Posted by CCS

Who has even heard of Libertarianz? Colin Craig is doing a much better job of getting publicity for his party and the polls show it.

Yep, there's been a party brochure in my local newspaper every week since campaigning began.

[CCS]

Cool story bro.

[chubby]

A Horizon poll of 2874 people is projecting National on 46 seats in a 122-seat parliament, and Labour and the Greens on 50.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...efiant-Winston

lol.

[Dan]

Originally Posted by chubby

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...efiant-Winston

lol.

(edit for clarity: point = Winston bears striking resemblance to idgaf guy.)

[cyc]

Originally Posted by chubby

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...efiant-Winston

lol.

It takes a pretty deluded and pathetic shit to laugh at the thought of Winston Peters holding the balance of power. ANYTHING TO WIN AND ANYTHING FOR POWER!

Awesome. Welcome to the world of the extreme left.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by chubby

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...efiant-Winston

lol.

I know, it's fucking hilarious. Stuff running the results of a Horizon poll as if it were news is some funny shit. A self-selected Internet survey where you can answer as many times as you like. SOUNDS LEGIT.

[CCS]

That fact that Winston is polling where he is right now (on legit polls) is scary. Don't people remember Winston holding the country to ransom in the past?

[MrTTTT]

Go Winston!!

[Torka]

Originally Posted by Ab

I know, it's fucking hilarious. Stuff running the results of a Horizon poll as if it were news is some funny shit. A self-selected Internet survey where you can answer as many times as you like. SOUNDS LEGIT.

As opposed to landline-based polling which skews the age of the sample significantly upwards and therefore rightwards

[blynk]

Originally Posted by CCS

That fact that Winston is polling where he is right now (on legit polls) is scary. Don't people remember Winston holding the country to ransom in the past?

Or do people find a National party governing alone more scary.

[blynk]

Oh, I should not, that there is no way in hell that I would vote for Peters.

[CCS]

Originally Posted by blynk

Or do people find a National party governing alone more scary.

You'd need to have rocks in your head to think that National governing alone would be worse than Winston holding the balance of power.

[cyc]

Originally Posted by CCS

You'd need to have rocks in your head to think that National governing alone would be worse than Winston holding the balance of power.

Or to be the sort of stupid leftie that believes anything which leads to a "win" for their side is automatically a good thing.

[fixed_truth]

Some interesting polling day projections based on linear regressions using all all campaign period polls:

New Zealand First makes 5%?

Using the analysis above, we project that New Zealand First will get 3.8% of the vote. We can also project with 95% confidence that the party will get between 2.3% and 5.2% of the vote. Importantly, we project that there is only a 4% probability New Zealand First will get more than five percent of the vote.

National makes 50%?

We project that National will get an absolute majority of the vote, but a pretty small one (50.8%). Based on this analysis, we think there is a 74% chance that National will get over 50% of the vote.

Also Dimpost

You gotta wonder why a party who is polling double their main opponents needs to run out this kind of clumsy race-baiting during the last week of the campaign. So I’m calling it: based on this statement, and the increasingly weird and hysterical posts on Kiwiblog, I predict that National’s internal polling has Winston Peters registering at >5%.

[Saladin]

Originally Posted by Evoke

yeh ccs and cyc you're both right, libertarianz don't even have a candidate in my electorate and there's no way they'd ever get party seats...

Got the conversative flyer yesterday, didn't even realise their candidate for my electorate was Gordon Copeland. So that's where the religious nut element went..