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16th March 2015, 13:28 | #1 |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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Beyond the Wall
or, like, Warkworth.
NORTHLAND BY-ELECTION, BITCHES! Mike Sabin? Never heard of him! Come on down Mark Osborne! Willow-Jean Prime? Under the bus with you! Winston Peters? AGHHHH KILL IT WITH FIRE! Is one of the bluest electorates in the country going to kick John Key in the nuts? |
17th March 2015, 10:42 | #2 |
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It's really is anyone's guess. It would be great for the opposition if Peters won but yeah a big ask in this electorate.
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Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong. |
17th March 2015, 10:55 | #3 |
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Would it really be great for the opposition?
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17th March 2015, 11:42 | #4 |
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National are putting everything they've got into winning this. Shit Key is even cutting short his Japan visit to campaign in Northland. The opposition winning a safe government seat would be hugely embarrassing for National. Also they wouldn't be a able to pass the RMA reforms and would need to rely on a vote from MP or UF just to pass legislation.
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Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong. Last edited by fixed_truth : 17th March 2015 at 11:43. |
17th March 2015, 11:50 | #5 |
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Perhaps Winston will become the unexpected hero who will save the world from the TPPA.
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Stay shook. No sook. |
17th March 2015, 13:39 | #6 |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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17th March 2015, 16:21 | #7 |
Drunken Annoying
Superhero Bastard |
That.
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If there is one movement I could get behind in this world, it would be the discrimination and abuse of fucking idiots. |
17th March 2015, 16:25 | #8 |
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Winston is a problem for both the government, and the opposition, the sooner he's gone, the better, for everyone.
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17th March 2015, 16:33 | #9 |
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I really hope he wins. Two things I hope get scuppered for this government: signing the TPPA and changing the flag.
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Stay shook. No sook. |
17th March 2015, 17:25 | #10 |
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My uncle (Bruce Rogan) is running as an Independent. You may recognise him as one of the instigators and leaders of the Kaipara rates strike. Oh, and when he quoted Shakespeare to punctuate a letter to Nick Smith and it was misinterpreted as a personal threat.
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18th March 2015, 11:46 | #11 | |
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20th March 2015, 01:08 | #12 |
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He can play the game alright
Peters: Nats covering up Sabin issue http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/winsto...1918?ref=video
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Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong. |
20th March 2015, 10:51 | #13 |
I have detailed files
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Based on afterthought, I won't post what I was going to. But yeah... dig hard enough, and it's all out there. |
20th March 2015, 12:23 | #14 |
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Yeah it's bad. And if Northland voters think that National knew about this and still backed Sabin into Northland - then this might explain why National aren't dominating their seat.
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Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong. |
20th March 2015, 13:58 | #15 | |
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20th March 2015, 20:07 | #16 |
Love, Actuary
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Yeh - it's misleading. Instead of per-capita it should be per National voter since these folk are by and large the ones who pay net tax.
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20th March 2015, 21:44 | #17 | |
Stunt Pants
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I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner? |
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26th March 2015, 13:06 | #18 | |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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The old vampire is caning it in the latest 3News poll:
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26th March 2015, 14:57 | #19 |
I have detailed files
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He's still holding that Ace up his sleeve too.
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28th March 2015, 21:50 | #20 |
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National got destroyed. They put everything they've got and still lost by 4000 votes. Wasn't expecting that.
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Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong. |
28th March 2015, 22:52 | #21 |
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Part of the problem was, has anyone heard of the guy they tried to run against Winston? Like Winston or dislike him (and I must confess I'm not a huge fan) he has a lot of name recognition.
Either that, or Northland residents are sick of National ignoring them. |
28th March 2015, 23:17 | #22 | ||
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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29th March 2015, 13:27 | #23 |
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Well this changes things somewhat doesn't it? Excellent.
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Stay shook. No sook. |
29th March 2015, 18:32 | #24 |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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Not really. If Dunne retires during this term though...
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29th March 2015, 19:46 | #25 |
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So MMP.. now that Winston has an electorate seat, does that mean he should lose a list seat ?
And now that National has lost an Electorate Seat, shouldn't they gain one list seat to make the equation balanced again. Can see why the ACT guys are wanting a review of this.
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Spig. |
30th March 2015, 00:19 | #26 | |
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Instead they need to recalc everything - it may actually end up with NZF with two additional seats if they hit threshold.
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Ξ √ Ω L U T ↑ ☼ N وكل يوم كنت تعيش في العبودية |
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30th March 2015, 03:01 | #27 |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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30th March 2015, 09:25 | #28 | |
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If NZ 1st got 10% of the party vote on election night 2014 and failed to get any Electorate seats, they would be entitled to 10 list seats as they exceeded the 5% threshold. Now they have got an electorate seat, they should get a top up of only 9 list seats to make them back up to the 10% that their 2014 party vote entitled them to. Whereas with National, they got 50% of the 2014 party vote, and 42 electorate seats, which gave them a top up (list seats) of another 8 list MP's. Total of 50 mp's. Now they lose a seat, drop to 41 electorate - but their list over hang should top them up by another list MP (41+9) to reflect the % of vote they received. Threshold only applies when you do not secure any electorate seats, which is moot in this case as % party vote for NZF was >5% on election night. Now after reading that post that Ab has linked to, things get just batshit crazy. For #1 - Winston can not decide who get's in as his new list MP, it has to be the next person on the list, unless they do not want the role.
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Spig. Last edited by spigalau : 30th March 2015 at 09:26. |
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30th March 2015, 11:52 | #29 |
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So my take on it is that the number of PMs based on the list are set.
So if National are 42+18, that is set at 42 elected and 18 list. If a person on the list retires, they are replaced. But if someone that is elected resigns, then their seat (and only their seat) is up for the change. So because National lost, they are now 41+18. So NZ first were 0+10. Peters resigns from the list, they still keep their 10, and he was elected so they are now 1+11. |
30th March 2015, 13:47 | #30 | |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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Nice work Labour, that's how MMP works. But please - no more butthurt about Epsom and Ohariu, OK? |
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30th March 2015, 15:40 | #31 | |
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I see your point though I reckon Northland is a bit different because it didn't involve the coattail effect ie.
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Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong. |
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