Betting against NZ

[Golden Teapot]

I don't follow rugby but all the same it's plain for all to see (even me) that NZ is not going to win.

Looking at the TAB odds I think this would be a reasonable betting strategy:

$10 on NZ being knocked out in the Group games (100:1 odds)
$75 on NZ being knocked out in the Quarter Finals (12:1 odds)
$275 on NZ being knocked out in the Semi-finals (3.5:1 odds)
$640 on NZ being knocked out in the finals (4.5:1 odds)

So if you like protecting somewhat against NZ not making the finals with a willingness to take a small loss and then the rest on the money-shot of them being smacked in the finals. Or losing the lot should they happen to win - but that isn't going to happen.

Now I've never bet on sport before so I'm wondering if I'm missing something here? This looks like a quite low risk way of getting most of my money back or tripling it against a modest chance of losing the lot.

Perhaps -10, -75, -510, -405 is less greedy and is more likely to be worth the effort of placing the bet?

[Baal]

Looks good to me!

[Fx.]

the maths seems to make sense

tell us how you go! (you damn blasphemer!)

[bradman]

I like it! If you're a pessimist but want the AB's to win, you're covered either way!