Random Thoughts II

[CCS]

Time for us to lock down the border. At least stop accepting flights from China.

[Ajax]

Looks like we could be moving into an exponential growth phase of infection.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Ab

RIP Kobe

Jerry West is one of the toughest hombres in the game and he just looks destroyed by this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wnmNwVG2bk

[Ajax]

WHO has declared a global health emergency.

[Ajax]

In the same press conference, WHO says “we don’t recommend any restrictions on travel and trade”. Wut.

[Lightspeed]

That's going to be the major impact of this outbreak: disruption of travel and trade. Especially if the outbreak persists.

Short there being some deadly mutation of course.

[Ajax]

The major impact if this thing is not contained will be lots of dead people.

[Lightspeed]

Sure, to the dead and those who love them. Sure, 100 people is a lot of people to die.

But I don't really follow otherwise.

[Ajax]

There are about 9000 reported cases now and 200+ deaths (but this is likely a gross under-estimate). A Lancet study indicates the true mortality rate is about 11%

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...211-7/fulltext

With an exponential growth in infection rates comes an exponential increase in the mortality rate - hence the concern if there's an outbreak in a country like India with high population density, poor healthcare and rudimentary sanitation.

[Ab]

If it’s 200+ confirmed dead, bet on 2000+ dead and incinerated with all records destroyed.

[Lightspeed]

That's what is interesting about this situation. Like Chernobyl, we're not going to have to rely on our trust or mistrust of voices of authority. We're going to be able to see the difference between what we've been told and what's actually happening.

If it's as dark as Ajax suggests, we're not going to be left wondering who to believe.

But if all we hear is the story, then we'll know it's just that.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Ab

TSLA just closed at 547.20

640.81

[Lightspeed]

He's got his $100B, but keeping it for a month? Spikes go both directions. I'm not putting money in either way.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Ab

The Guardian: cancel Doctor Who
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-r...e-whittaker-pc

Well the Guardian's woke kommissariat can lick my balls, those last two episodes were right up there. I thought this season had jumped the shark but awwww hell no.

[DrTiTus]

Harvey Weinstein has no testicles and appears to have a vagina

Clearly we need to determine whether he has gametes. If not, then he doesn't really exist. It's science.

[StN]

I can see what you did there, and am tittering. Wait, can I say that?

[Ab]

Shock twist!!

[Cyberbob]

“He does not have testicles, and it appears that he has a vagina!" It was around this time I realized that this man was about 8 stories tall and a crustacean from the paleozoic era. That damned Loch Ness Monster had gotten me again, "Damnit Monstah, I ain't givin' you no tree fiddy!"

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Ab

640.81

786.14

[Nich]

hah, money running away from Airlines, Oil, Food import / export, hotels and finding a home in Tesla / Amazon.

[DrTiTus]

Smells like rain. Thank Christ for that. It's been weeks or even a couple of months as far as I can remember. Lawn's brown.

[Lightspeed]

Anyone need a source of neutrons?

Working Nuclear Fusion Reactor - TradeMe

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Ab

786.14

887.06

[Nich]

It's noise (personally and financially quite good noise) to take all the oxygen away from the nCoV2019 news and panic.

The supply chain industrial complex grinds all other vehicle manufacturers to a halt when China can't deliver parts.

[Ajax]

Originally Posted by Ab

887.06

I really admire the company but this could be bubble territory - reminds me of the days before the dotcom crash. Never buy in the mania phase.

[crocos]

Guaranteed security: XOR your files with themselves. Ain't no-one gonna be able to read that "encryption".

[Lightspeed]

I thought this article offered some useful context on the Coronavirus:

[Ajax]

Peer reviewed study in the Lancet estimating the true numbers of infected.

Key points:

* We estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2.68 (95% confidence) and that 75,815 individuals (95% confidence) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020.

* The epidemic doubling time was 6.4 days (95% confidence).

* If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.

[Nich]

Edible garden is growing,
Chickens will be laying eggs soon,
Pantry is stocked and freezer full of frozen meals.
We already have plenty of hand sanitizer.
Annnd we live in a town with a population under 3,000.

Ready for nCoV2019 pandemic.

[Cyberbob]

Originally Posted by Ajax

I really admire the company but this could be bubble territory - reminds me of the days before the dotcom crash. Never buy in the mania phase.

Naturally.

Tesla (TSLA) shocked investors yesterday as it plunged by a nauseating 17.18 percent. ... If you bought at the top, you would be down by a sickening 24.18 percent in 48 hours

https://www.ccn.com/teslas-17-plunge...ect-more-pain/

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Ajax

* If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.

Sun Chunlan, vice premier in charge of the Chinese response:

During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever

That sort of language is really heartening isn't it? I'm sure they have everything well in hand.

Dr Li Wenliang, thought to be 34, tried to send a message to fellow medics about the outbreak at the end of December. Three days later police paid him a visit and told him to stop. He returned to work and caught the virus from a patient.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51364382

Honestly half the news articles read like something out of the first few chapters of World War Z.

[MadMax]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

I thought this article offered some useful context on the Coronavirus:

Some convenient obfuscation there. Mixing x/100 then x per 100,000.

[Lightspeed]

That's a bit tenuous. They're obviously different figures.

What I'm not sure about is how they worked out the H1N1 figures? Must be a typo right?

1M infections, 100-200K deaths, that's 10-20%, not 0.003%.

[Ajax]

The WHO has been worse than useless in their handling of this crisis. They seem to be more interested in praising China’s response, parroting the official figures as if they mean something, and advising people to travel back and forth from China as usual. The Director-General appears out of touch and incompetent.

[Nich]

China's response:
https://twitter.com/Tssomas/status/1225809838963396608

I don't think they're incompetent, but rather the extent of their actions doesnt align with the reported extent of the epidemic

China's response seems overkill, WHO's response seems to downplay the risk of pandemic

[Lightspeed]

That's a machine usually used to combat smog (by using water to drag down smoke particles from cars). I'm sure it will be equally effective at combating viruses... Which is to say, it's a good show, but doesn't do much.

[Ab]

Forsythia I tell you!

[Ab]

Taiiiiiiiikaaaaaaaaaa

[StN]

[Ab]

My favourite part of the internet right now is the part where white feminists are decrying Taika’s win as a travesty because whitewomantears