Random Thoughts II

[Juju]

Originally Posted by Spoon1

I have.

Read my post again.

Lets extrapolate.

Imagine there is 100 doors instead of 3.

You pick one - lets say No.10.

The presenter then opens 98 other doors and leaves two.
No.10 and lets says No. 20.

Obviously the car is behind one of these two doors. Now the chance of you picking the correct door in the first instance (before the host opened the other) is 1% yes?

After the host has opened the other doors, the chance is still 1% if you stay with your door - because you originally had a choice of 100 doors. However, if you chose to go for door 20, the chance is 50% - because you know that the host knows that 1 of the 2 doors left has the car.

Now shrink that above analogy down to 3 doors.
Your chance in the first instance of picking the right door is 33%.

If the host opened all 3 doors right now, your probability of getting the car is 33% yes?

Once the host opens another goat door - your chance doesn't increase to 50% if you stay with the original door - because you chose that door on the original data that you had 3 doors to chose from, not 2.
If the host opened the door WITHOUT knowing which door had the car, and he just happened to pick a goat door - THEN your chances are 50/50.
But because the host knows which door is car, then you chances go up to 50/50 if you pick the other door.

Ugh. My mind is assploding trying to explain this. I failed 6th form Maths.

Ok - where you are getting confused is that you are thinking that once the host opens the other door, you have only 2 doors to pick from - so you think 50/50.

But the statistical chances of winning the car if you stick with the first door you chose are 33% - but with the other its 50%.

If you played the game 200 times over, and 100 times you decided to change, of those 100 you would win 50% of the time. The other 100 times you decided to stay, you would win 33% of the time. (Obviously with a few % either side due to variances).

[Pimp-X]

What if there's no car, and the prize is actually large cocks slapping against your tender face?

[Spoon1]

The key thing I'm trying to get across here is that are not actually 3 choices but only 2.
Choice 1 = Car.
Choice 2 = Not Car.

The fact there are 2 doors (or even 99 doors) that are "Not Car" doesn't matter because they're inextricably linked together by the host always opening all but one of the "Not Car" doors.

This is what I'm getting at and I do understand their explanation and in proper probability language it works out at 2/3 to switch but the assumption at the beginning that there are 3 choices is flawed and this is what all their calculations are based on.

There are not 3 REAL choices.

[Ab]

No, I think Pimp-X is on to something with this large cocks idea.

[Spoon1]

Originally Posted by Pimp-X

What if there's no car, and the prize is actually large cocks slapping against your tender face?

Then CCS still picks a door.

[gentle]

Originally Posted by Spoon1

There are not 3 REAL choices.

One could almost say the choices are based on a set of conditions. Maybe we should just call it, hmmmm say; conditional probability? I dunno, it has a ring to it!

[Thomas Meatball]

Originally Posted by Spoon1

Then CCS still picks a door.

Aww, sounds like you're all upset because you don't get it and now you're taking it out on people who've got nothing to do with it. Poor baby! Here, come give my cock a hug with your face.

[MadMax]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dgmgub8mHw

speaking of doors ...

[drl]

Originally Posted by Spoon1

The key thing I'm trying to get across here is that are not actually 3 choices but only 2.
Choice 1 = Car.
Choice 2 = Not Car.

The fact there are 2 doors (or even 99 doors) that are "Not Car" doesn't matter because they're inextricably linked together by the host always opening all but one of the "Not Car" doors.

This is what I'm getting at and I do understand their explanation and in proper probability language it works out at 2/3 to switch but the assumption at the beginning that there are 3 choices is flawed and this is what all their calculations are based on.

There are not 3 REAL choices.

Actually the flaw here is you know that one of the doors will be opened.

When you make your first choice you are not meant to have this knowledge, thus the chances are 33%. The host then opens a door - but the probability that you guessed the correct door hasn't changed as the guess was made when all 3 doors were in play.

It's only when you make the choice to change to the other door does the probability change as this is when you make a choice based on the fact that there is only 2 doors left.

Staying with the 1st door still gives you a 33% chance because thats the 1st door you picked and is now most likely wrong.

[Trigga*happY]

^ Not quite accurate. Not knowing which door the host will open is where the probability is established. When you choose the door, even if you do it with the knowledge that if you are wrong the host will open another, you are still making your choice based on 33%.

The only way it can be a 50/50 choice is if YOU know which door the host is going to open.

[drl]

Very true, but its easier to explain it that way. Its also a 66% chance of getting it right if you switch too, but try getting peoples head around that...

Simple fact of the matter is on your first guess if you pick the car and change you lose - but this situation statistically will only happen 33% of the time.

You are more likely to pick a goat on the first guess (there are 2 of them after all), so by changing you are more likely to get it right 66% of the time.

[Jodi]

It served humankind's evolutionary interests not to be able to understand conditional probability.

We suck at logic and probability, because it helped us survive.

[p01s0n]

If the goat is on a giant runway conveyor belt, will the door open?

[Pepsi]

Argh, my eyes!

[Warrick]

bitch! why?!

[Reformed_Quint]

WTF, that shit was worse than being rickrolled.

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by Pepsi

Argh, my eyes!

Lean towards/away from the image, it's pretty cool.

[Pepsi]

There is one of those FB pages going around called "I bet you can't stare at this picture without crying" and that's the link you get apparently..

[Thomas Meatball]

I don't get it. Do you need speakers or something?

[gentle]

If you like to get high and play games I would totally recommend Just Cause 2.

2 up for helicopter / 747 / cigarette boat all round stupid fun action.

[Cyberbob]

One of Mrs Bob's photos just got retweeted by the official Smashing Pumpkins twitter. 900 views in the last hour and counting.

[p01s0n]

chyeee
https://twitter.com/outlawimports

[Thomas Meatball]

Gay. Why don't you put more products in your store instead of fucking about with twitter?

[fidgit]

I love how every single time the Game Show problem comes up anywhere, there's always someone that insists they absolutely must be right, and everyone else is wrong, even with the mountains of evidence against them (and clear explanations, and reproduced data...).

I used to be that guy, and boy am I glad I stopped being belligerent long enough to actually nut this one out for myself. Good times.

[fidgit]

Originally Posted by p01s0n

chyeee
https://twitter.com/outlawimports

Imma follow you, you better make with the funnys! (And one mention of Beiber and I'm unfollowing)

[chiQ]

Originally Posted by fidgit

Imma follow you, you better make with the funnys! (And one mention of Beiber and I'm unfollowing)

Hah!

[PopPop'saNazi]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

I swear I wasn't that drunk last night (I'm certainly not feeling much of a hangover) but I clearly posted bullshit on the Internet that I can't remember so I must have been pretty hammered.

At least you didn't get so drunk that you drunk texted over $10,000 in donations to Haiti!

[Nich]

i need some Deep motherfucking Heat. Does in come in concentrate so you can bathe/soak in it? =)

i need it for my whole goddam body

[Cyberbob]

Did someone not cool down after getting physically owned yesterday?

[p01s0n]

holy fuck the new chrome5 beta is fast.

I watched the "heh we're google this is how we test our products lol" video, then thought "sure, its gonna be that quick on like a quad core machine plugged straight into googles servers on massive pipe". Installed it, expected minor increase in speed.

Shit is fucking fast.

[Fx.]

!~

grabbing now !


edit: seems the be the one i was using anyways !

[Savage]

I laugh when watching people stand and wait on the side of the road for 5 minutes for a gap in traffic to cross the road, instead of walking 10m up the road to the pedestrian crossing.

[Trigga*happY]

Originally Posted by Nich

i need some Deep motherfucking Heat. Does in come in concentrate so you can bathe/soak in it? =)

i need it for my whole goddam body

No, no you don't... Trust me, deep heat should be applied VERY carefully to the inner thigh when you suffer a groin strain.

[cEvin]

last name "ever', first name "lollest"

[Spink]

I remember hearing tales of people forgetting to wash deep heat off their hands before going to the toilet and being upset by the results.

[Spoon1]

Originally Posted by Spoon1

There are not 3 REAL choices.

I retract this comment.

On further reflection you can't ignore the initial probability so yeah, you should switch.

I did understand how they were getting their result but I was coming at it from a different (and wrong) angle.

[Spoon1]

Originally Posted by Thomas Meatball

Aww, sounds like you're all upset because you don't get it and now you're taking it out on people who've got nothing to do with it. Poor baby! Here, come give my cock a hug with your face.

Sounds like you're trying to cover up the fact that when anyone thinks about who would like a big cock slapping their face they think of you...

Perhaps you should post a few less pictures of them?

[Thomas Meatball]

Originally Posted by Spoon1

Sounds like you're trying to cover up the fact that when anyone thinks about who would like a big cock slapping their face they think of you...

Nope, just youy.

[Spoon1]

Youy know you are, youy said youy are.

[Thomas Meatball]

Whoa, typo burn. FML.