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Old 25th March 2020, 18:12     #361
Nich
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Know me.
Only makes sense if you think you can beat the market. Risky strategy. Broad based index funds is the way to go.
Get your grubby hands on physical gold if you can in the short term (right now, stock to flow is almost infinite as all distributors are sold out and all mints aren't operating because virus). In the mid term (3 months) Bitcoin in a paper wallet, in the long term (2021 - 2022) buy tech stocks with the new Global Digital Currency with the myWorldGovWallet app.
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Old 25th March 2020, 18:23     #362
blynk
 
Who ever said it didn't kill young people?
it kills people because of underlying conditions. The older the person, the more likely they will have this underlying condition.
But I'm sure no one believes it couldn't kill a young person.
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Old 25th March 2020, 18:32     #363
pxpx
 
Something to read

https://voxeu.org/article/pandemics-and-social-capital
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Old 25th March 2020, 18:41     #364
Know me.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by blynk
Who ever said it didn't kill young people?
it kills people because of underlying conditions. The older the person, the more likely they will have this underlying condition.
But I'm sure no one believes it couldn't kill a young person.
Young people think they are invincible anyway and combined with the fact that they are very unlikely to get seriously ill or die from the virus they are being cavalier.
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Old 25th March 2020, 18:48     #365
Know me.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
Get your grubby hands on physical gold if you can in the short term (right now, stock to flow is almost infinite as all distributors are sold out and all mints aren't operating because virus). In the mid term (3 months) Bitcoin in a paper wallet, in the long term (2021 - 2022) buy tech stocks with the new Global Digital Currency with the myWorldGovWallet app.
Agree gold will go to the moon and hit never before seen highs due to the FED printing money until they go broke or dead. Tech stock look good to me anytime at this point. Don't like bitcoin, don't understand it (understand blockchain)
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Old 25th March 2020, 19:18     #366
fixed_truth
 
A drive to the beach? Don't even think about it, warns top cop
Surely just in the more populated areas.
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Old 25th March 2020, 19:21     #367
pxpx
 
I'm pretty sure we'll be fine as an economy. Paymark just reported it's biggest day ever on monday, something like $111m
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Old 25th March 2020, 20:17     #368
Know me.
 
Lot of people taking the next four weeks to do all the odd jobs around the house that they have been putting off for years. Plus all the rolls of toilet paper and bottled water they will need in the coming weeks. Definitely good for the mental health to keep busy.
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Old 25th March 2020, 22:01     #369
ePi
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pepsi
I would recommend creating your shopping list on the Countdown site and then checking periodically for deliveries. I created a list earlier this morning in preparation for the next day opening, and happened to check the delivery times now and managed to slot into a Sunday delivery time that literally just opened up (still some there now).
Thanks Pepsi, the delivery for both Countdown and New World near me are completely full for the next 7 days. There are no options for those mainstream supermarkets for me. I'm looking for smaller businesses that are going to remain open during the lockdown that have a better schedule. I've been recommended Hello Fresh (is that any good?). I've tried Foodbox, but their "next day delivery" is a not true. It's 3 days after I ordered and received nothing still.

I will create a list and keep checking though just in case.
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Old 25th March 2020, 22:47     #370
Know me.
 
Big rally on the Wall Street futures market, should be another good day tomorrow. "This could be over by Easter"

FOMO kicking in now.

Still haven't passed the stimulis bill. If that gets signed things will go ballistic.

THEN WHATAYA DO?

The 18,000 bottom on Monday is a 50% decline from the post GFC 10 year rally, which is a decent fucking whack.
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Old 25th March 2020, 23:02     #371
Nich
 


We are at the bull trap phase.

Wall street will rally on government making a decision, and FED ensuring $150 billion daily liquidity.

But the supply chain problem still isnt being addressed. Drugs, guns, hospital beds, and body bags will soon be in short supply especially if America "returns to normal" in 2 weeks time. Then the 2nd wave of fear kicks in.

maybe a better market indicator will be when car makers stop making ventilators, distilleries stop making hand sanitiser, gucci stops making face masks, and MS Teams returns the video quality to pre-covid19 resolutions.

Last edited by Nich : 25th March 2020 at 23:05.
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Old 25th March 2020, 23:06     #372
blynk
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pxpx
I'm pretty sure we'll be fine as an economy. Paymark just reported it's biggest day ever on monday, something like $111m
I'm a bit gutted, I use to work for a non Bank credit card company, it would be really interesting to see some of those trends compared to Xmas, black Friday etx
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Old 25th March 2020, 23:19     #373
Nich
 
out of work sports commentator resorts to commentating daily life:

https://twitter.com/nickheathsport/s...723926528?s=20
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Old 26th March 2020, 08:46     #374
pxpx
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Know me.
Lot of people taking the next four weeks to do all the odd jobs around the house that they have been putting off for years. Plus all the rolls of toilet paper and bottled water they will need in the coming weeks. Definitely good for the mental health to keep busy.
Bunnings should be classed as an essential service tbh.
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Old 26th March 2020, 12:19     #375
Nich
 
S&P futures pukes. US doesn't need a corporate stimulus where:
- they give executives a bonus,
- they buy their own stock options at a fraction of market price with a 0% interest loan, then sell into the bull trap at full market prices.
- employees get fired because no revenue forecast
- The "too big to fail" companies hold government and the population hostage
- Its just 2008 all over again. And there'll be a new movie to explain what the fuck happened: "The Bigger Short"

It needs a social stimulus.
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Old 26th March 2020, 12:34     #376
BoyWonder
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pxpx
Bunnings should be classed as an essential service tbh.
Apparently there is a lot you can do with 2 minute noodles.
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Old 26th March 2020, 12:43     #377
blynk
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pxpx
Bunnings should be classed as an essential service tbh.
lol. It is. But to trade only
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Old 26th March 2020, 13:24     #378
crocos
 
I'm surprised and saddened that EB Games is still open here in Melbourne. WTF: If people want a playstation that bad, buy it online.
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Old 26th March 2020, 13:47     #379
Know me.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
S&P futures pukes. US doesn't need a corporate stimulus where:
- they give executives a bonus,
- they buy their own stock options at a fraction of market price with a 0% interest loan, then sell into the bull trap at full market prices.
- employees get fired because no revenue forecast
- The "too big to fail" companies hold government and the population hostage
- Its just 2008 all over again. And there'll be a new movie to explain what the fuck happened: "The Bigger Short"

It needs a social stimulus.
Finished up on the day but failed to be a convincing. Should still finish up on the week. All the major details are out on the stimulus bill and we all know it’s going to get signed so the rally should have been better. Market will rally a little after it passes this week. More bad Coronavirus news after market close on Friday, maybe state lockdowns. More bad news Saturday, Sunday. Off the cliff Monday.
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Old 26th March 2020, 14:36     #380
Nich
 
Sounds like you're in for some day trading. Risky business
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Old 26th March 2020, 14:42     #381
Lightspeed
 
Brazil is in for a world of hurt. President of Brazil telling people it's just like the flu, relax, get back to work.

Who would have thought authoritarian leaders suck at responding to real-world crises?
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Old 26th March 2020, 14:54     #382
Nich
 
In Aus, the State and Fed government are trying to keep the commercial leases in place. If commercial lease domino falls, then next will be commercial loan defaults, then all of Australia becomes Detroit.

They need to act fast though. Currently ATO has a tax deferment for GST payments set back to late May. They've announced the $1.7 billion for Victoria, and Federal funds available, but the website only has a "Register your expression of interest" option for the Small business stimulus.

Businesses will be uncertain of how long this shutdown will last. Think about the incentive for shutting early and dropping burn rate to $0:
- wanting to keep some cash on hand for personal life preserving supplies
- Many have already made staff redundant without pay
- next biggest expense is rent, and rent is high based on 2019 going rates
- Best to close the business, put capital expenses into long term storage.
- So many other businesses will close that commercial leases will favour renters when society returns to normal
- Hell, commercial property market may take such a hammering that those who rent now may be able to own a commercial property outright.

So yes, government needs to act fast to give a good reason for keeping one's business primed for reopening. Stop the businesses from bleeding out.
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Old 26th March 2020, 15:03     #383
Lightspeed
 
There's basically no obligation for people to pay rent or mortgages in New Zealand right now. The government has made it clear landlords aren't in a position to evict and shouldn't be putting pressure on tenants to keep up with payments.

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Old 26th March 2020, 15:59     #384
Know me.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
Sounds like you're in for some day trading. Risky business
touché

I'm out for now, jobs claim numbers expected tomorrow too, which I didn't realise. Market could swing again either way.

Ultimately waiting for a clear signal when I can buy Index based ETF for the long term. Probably months away yet.
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Old 26th March 2020, 16:30     #385
Cyberbob
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightspeed
There's basically no obligation for people to pay rent or mortgages in New Zealand right now. The government has made it clear landlords aren't in a position to evict and shouldn't be putting pressure on tenants to keep up with payments.
But the second the freeze is over you'll be obligated to back pay, so don't go thinking you're getting free rent.
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Old 26th March 2020, 18:26     #386
Nich
 
We're Living in 12 Monkeys
https://youtu.be/1JLBXfKDbbI
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Old 26th March 2020, 18:48     #387
pxpx
 
Dude you need to log off for a little bit.
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Old 26th March 2020, 19:02     #388
DrTiTus
HENCE WHY FOREVER ALONE
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyberbob
But the second the freeze is over you'll be obligated to back pay, so don't go thinking you're getting free rent.
If I was renting I'd be tempted to put the money aside in case things get scarce/inflationary. I'd rather buy food and have rent arrears than pay the rent and starve. It's not like there are a lot of places to spend the money at the moment, so it's probably not going to be spent elsewhere.

Would be a good time to put some pressure on these landlords - let them feel the risk of their investment and pay their own mortgage.
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Old 26th March 2020, 21:25     #389
pxpx
 
That'd be a great way to get evicted as soon as Level 4 drops.
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Old 26th March 2020, 21:39     #390
Lightspeed
 
There are going to be a lot of people in rent arrears come the end of Level 4. I can't imagine there's going to be much sympathy for those rushing to lock in repayment plans.

I doubt anyone's getting off scot-free, but I suspect some degree of debt forgiveness would be incentivised.
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Old 27th March 2020, 08:17     #391
Know me.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
Dow Jones may get down to 10,000:

Boeing - Risk: Asking for a bail out already
Not picking on you Nich because I agreed with you at the time. Out of the whole list, the Boeing stock would have been the one to stay away from.
The price has gone from $90 to $180, yes you would have doubled your money in 5 days. If you held for 10 years and sold at $180 you'd be patting yourself on the back.

Jobless claims are staggering...market gone up.
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Old 27th March 2020, 10:03     #392
Ajax
Architeuthis
 
The stock markets are radioactive cat shit at this point in time. I personally won't be going anywhere near them for a while.
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Old 27th March 2020, 10:54     #393
Cyberbob
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Know me.
Jobless claims are staggering...


Data sources: http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf & https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp. These are numbers from the United States. Data points are weekly unemployment claims from 1967 to the most recent number from March 20, 2020.
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Old 27th March 2020, 12:38     #394
blynk
 
What's the spike each year. Xmas holidays? or end of Fin Year and companies doing something dodgy
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Old 27th March 2020, 12:40     #395
Native
I... err - F*ck It.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Know me.
Not picking on you Nich because I agreed with you at the time. Out of the whole list, the Boeing stock would have been the one to stay away from.
The price has gone from $90 to $180, yes you would have doubled your money in 5 days. If you held for 10 years and sold at $180 you'd be patting yourself on the back.

Jobless claims are staggering...market gone up.
That Boeing share price is just nuts. Trump is an idiot. I'm with Ajax.
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Old 27th March 2020, 12:55     #396
ePi
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by blynk
What's the spike each year. Xmas holidays? or end of Fin Year and companies doing something dodgy
Seasonal workers. From the US Bureau of Labour Statistics.

Quote:
Over the course of a year, the size of the labor force, the levels of employment and unemployment, and other measures of labor market activity undergo fluctuations due to seasonal events including changes in weather, harvests, major holidays, and school schedules. Because these seasonal events follow a more or less regular pattern each year, their influence on statistical trends can be eliminated by seasonally adjusting the statistics from month to month
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Old 27th March 2020, 13:24     #397
pxpx
 
Welp
Coronavirus: Mexicans demand crackdown on Americans crossing the border
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Old 27th March 2020, 13:35     #398
fixed_truth
 
It's all part of Trump's plan to get Mexico to build a wall.
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Old 27th March 2020, 13:52     #399
StN
I have detailed files
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ePi
Seasonal workers. From the US Bureau of Labour Statistics.
That, and the old chestnut of "It's a rough quarter - cull the bottom 20%!"
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Old 27th March 2020, 14:02     #400
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
I just got notice. Clearing out my desk as we speak.
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