nCoV 2019

[blynk]

Originally Posted by xor

Pretty much. I've just finished up reading Pale Rider by Laura Spinney which has been eye opening.

I guess time will tell, I hope that isolation works but I remain pretty skeptical about the whole thing. I hope I'm wrong.

Maybe, but I guess on the other hand the world could have done less and hoped that it have a similar effect of the spanish flu and infect a third of the people and kill 1/3 of the people.
And also hope that it didn't have ongoing physical damage to the people infected.

[Ajax]

Donald Trump says he doesn't want the US to have a "big surge" in Covid cases like in New Zealand.

[[BT]Monza]

https://webworm.substack.com/p/webwo...an-who-started

[xor]

Originally Posted by blynk

Maybe, but I guess on the other hand the world could have done less and hoped that it have a similar effect of the spanish flu and infect a third of the people and kill 1/3 of the people.
And also hope that it didn't have ongoing physical damage to the people infected.

That's the thing though, nations in 1918 did attempt to isolate and set up cordons to prevent the spread. The problem with isolating a nation or group of people is that it is very hard to isolate people. Even in the quarantine hotels there are people who escape etc. It just takes a few turkeys to spoil it for everyone else and get them infected.

[[BT]Monza]

So if it didn't work over a hundred years ago then shouldn't even attempt it now? Why not look at points where it failed and work on solutions to fix it, contact tracing app etc.

[fixed_truth]

Originally Posted by blynk

And also hope that it didn't have ongoing physical damage to the people infected.

Yeah we don't want tens of housands of extra people in the health system & on sicknesses benefits for the next few decades.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by [BT]Monza

https://webworm.substack.com/p/webwo...an-who-started

Bill Gates's agents in Jacinda's office got to him. Don't believe anything he says now.

[Cyberbob]

Originally Posted by blynk

If the entire world had of done a similar thing for 6 weeks, it would be gone.

This right here. It's a discussion for 2am philosophising after sharing a dozen, but it appears like our society can't go six weeks without imploding.
Capitalism can't go six weeks of inactivity without nations going bankrupt. If the nation's businesses go into unrecoverable levels of debt, and the nation's workforce are made jobless, go into mountains of debt themselves, and the government can't print money fast enough to subsidize everyone owing everyone else, then what?

[Nich]

Originally Posted by Cyberbob

, then what?

A) Global Jonestown

or

B) Global Thunderdome

[Ab]

NZ media right now:

COVID DISINFORMATION CRISIS: Facebook users are sharing Facebook conspiracies on Facebook with people in their Facebook groups and using Facebook messenger to invite their Facebook contacts to conspiracy-theory Facebook events promoted on Facebook pages, the problem must be colonialism

[xor]

Originally Posted by [BT]Monza

So if it didn't work over a hundred years ago then shouldn't even attempt it now? Why not look at points where it failed and work on solutions to fix it, contact tracing app etc.

No, that's not what i'm saying at all. I don't know what to do. I know people are dumb and will falter, this will then raise the risk of increased infections. Isolating people is a zero sum game. As this latest cluster has shown in NZ and also in Melbourne. From what i understand the main cause of the outbreak in Melbourne is the result in failings of those in the quarantine hotel.

What will NZ do if there are more clusters in a month or two's time? Lock down again? Then what? carry on until the next cluster?

One thing i have learned within my industry is that cancer diagnosis is down 40% and radiology nurses in private clinics are losing their jobs because business is down. A lot of people simply aren't going to the doctor anymore.

For me personally, i'm pretty anxious as our whanau moved over to QLD 13 months ago and we don't have any support if things go pear shaped and one of us get sick.

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by xor

Isolating people is a zero sum game.

What's the competition you're referring to?

What will NZ do if there are more clusters in a month or two's time? Lock down again? Then what? carry on until the next cluster?

That's right. Each outbreak we'll get more adept at responding to the disruption and containing the clusters. The alternative is fingers crossed.

What's been achievable in New Zealand is so because of a variety of factors, demonstrating we've built some genuine resiliency in our society. We have a general trust in authorities, institutions and each other. We don't have to work today to ensure we eat tonight. Our businesses have a high rate of adoption of digital tech. We have low levels of public debt

[xor]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

What's the competition you're referring to?

The game to keep out the virus.

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

What's been achievable in New Zealand is so because of a variety of factors, demonstrating we've built some genuine resiliency in our society. We have a general trust in authorities, institutions and each other. We don't have to work today to ensure we eat tonight. Our businesses have a high rate of adoption of digital tech. We have low levels of public debt

It looks like NZ has it in the bag in that case. You're much more optimistic than I am.

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by xor

The game to keep out the virus.

Yes, we win, the virus loses. That's the zero sum game we're aiming for. I don't see the problem with that.

I'm optimistic because we had 100 days with no community transmission after a period of unchecked infection. I have lived experience of things going well.

[MadMax]

Interesting. My brother who’s in Aussie sounds very much like xor.

I’m cautiously optimistic but also very sheltered from the negatives - I’m not involved with or directly connected to anything to do with aviation for example. My workload has been crazy since April.

Off to the bank soon for a top up in the mortgage to hopefully build a garage/workshop with rentable self contained room.

[blynk]

Less deaths in NZ
Nich and co, care to give your thoughts?

There is currently less deaths in NZ for all cases compared to previous years, and taking population growth into account its even smaller?

[Ab]

Putting on my Factfulness hat, a decrease in "all causes" mortality is usually evidence that there are fewer people living in real poverty and losing children to easily-preventable deaths. When death rates drop it's because poverty is being eliminated.

[Ab]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-z...ite-pleas.html

Senior quarantine whistleblower says staff were refused regular testing programme despite pleas

A senior quarantine official has blown the whistle on the border-testing botch-up.

He says claims that staff were reluctant to be tested are not correct - and that workers requested a regular testing programme "multiple times", but their concerns were ignored.

"They haven't taken our protection or the wider community's protection seriously by not having a testing programme," he tells Newshub.
Related News

Chris Hipkins has admitted when Government announced a new testing strategy for border workers there was no system in place to track of how many had a swab.

The worker, who's been at the airport ten years, says frontline staff requested a regular testing programme "multiple times", but management declined this.

"Just [got] told it wasn't available, or they didn't have the resources to do it," he says.

This puts everything in a new light. It wasn't people pulling "that's not in my contract" stubbornness.

[Cyberbob]

I'm not a fan of David Seymour. I don't agree with ACT's policies.

But this speech David Seymour delivered is incredibly well put and succinct, delivering criticism and pointing out what could have been done better.

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by Ab

Putting on my Factfulness hat, a decrease in "all causes" mortality is usually evidence that there are fewer people living in real poverty and losing children to easily-preventable deaths. When death rates drop it's because poverty is being eliminated.

What's happening is Communist Cindy locking down the country so she can redistribute wealth to the people. Did you know all the food that would go to restaurants ends up in food parcels? We got people eating prime cuts! For nothing!

[Ab]

I should have read the article properly, the timeframe isn't big enough for a poverty/child mortality angle.

[blynk]

Looking at cause of death will be very interesting indeed, but currently its disagreeing with another argument that lock down will cause more deaths than the virus itself.

Or is someone going to tell me its the wrong sort of deaths that have dropped.
That all these hard working SME owners that are going off killing themselves where the people that aren't dying are the elderly.

[StN]

Seemed like a frosty press conference today - only heard a bit, but Helen must be advising Cindy after the escalation of perceived cock-ups.

H2 has entered the chat.

Also, even Dr Ash is getting frustrated, coining his own collective phrases.

[Nich]

Originally Posted by blynk

Less deaths in NZ
Nich and co, care to give your thoughts?

There is currently less deaths in NZ for all cases compared to previous years, and taking population growth into account its even smaller?

This is great news. I agree with LS on the things NZ has to be optimistic about (and my god I wish I was back there!).

Given how NZ COVID border taskforce has been conducted, I wonder if this "Don't test, don't tell" is part of the larger NZ COVID-19 story. In which case, this is even better news! NZ can be in the middle of a pandemic with community spread, but you wouldn't even know it if you weren't looking for cases.

Total deaths, and excess deaths is the sort of information I'd like to see in Australia too. I'll take a guess and say it's probably lower than 2019 too. Not being able to leave the house, or losing the desire to leave the house can do wonders for your longevity.

[xor]

You're in Melbourne eh, Nich? How you holding up?

[Ajax]

Scott Morrison reckons eventual COVID vaccine should be mandatory in Australia.

During a round of morning media, Mr Morrison repeatedly said he expected pushback from anti-vaccination campaigners.

But he repeatedly said he was the minister who introduced a "no jab, no play" rule, and his stance on vaccinations was clear and would not change.

[Lightspeed]

I'm not eager for some rushed out "let's get people back to work" jab.

[Ajax]

I understand the Aus government is looking at the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine which is in phase III clinical trials (i.e. seems promising and further along than the various others in development). But yeah, definitely not keen on a hasty and compulsory rollout.

[Lightspeed]

What's going to work against NZ is high private debt. People are going to be financially responsible and continue to pay off their mortgages and credit cards. When really what we need is people to lay off putting money into savings or even drawing on those savings to stimulate business demand.

[Ab]

Ironically, sensible people will take any government assistance and pay down debt - which is bad; while silly people will take that money and return it to circulation - which is good.

[Know me.]

That's the whole point of lowering interest rates and giving away free money.

Its intuitive that a lock down will lead to a short term decrease in death but also intuitive that in the medium and long term that it will lead to a increase. The longer the lockdown the more extreme the differences.

[Know me.]

I'm wondering how many people are borrowing at these record low interest rates and plowing into the stock market. It will all come out in the wash, probably red.

[Ab]

The New Zealand Government exceeded its powers telling people to stay at home and in bubbles in the first nine days of the coronavirus lockdown, a court has found.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/high-cour...n-was-unlawful

(T)he requirement was not prescribed by law and was therefore contrary to s 5 of the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act.

I'm so glad that there isn't a group of nutcases who will take this as proof that the government doesn't respect citizens' rights.

[Know me.]

Reminds me if George Carlin "Right this way"

[Ajax]

Originally Posted by Know me.

Its intuitive that a lock down will lead to a short term decrease in death but also intuitive that in the medium and long term that it will lead to a increase. The longer the lockdown the more extreme the differences.

It might seem logical that the impact of an associated recession would lead to an increase in mortality but historical data suggests that's not how it would necessarily play out. During the Great Depression for example, mortality rates were seen to drop in many developed countries.

[Ab]

Meanwhile on the border,

Heather Simpson returns to spearhead border response in light of repeated testing failures

You sending H2?

You feel better motherfucker?

Sheeit negro! That's all you had to say!

[Nothing]

Originally Posted by Ab

Meanwhile on the border,

Heather Simpson returns to spearhead border response in light of repeated testing failures

You sending H2?

You feel better motherfucker?

Sheeit negro! That's all you had to say!

This whole post just confuses me.

[StN]

Originally Posted by Nothing

This whole post just confuses me.

Originally Posted by StN

Seemed like a frosty press conference today - only heard a bit, but Helen must be advising Cindy after the escalation of perceived cock-ups.

H2 has entered the chat.

Also, even Dr Ash is getting frustrated, coining his own collective phrases.

Oh H2 is Mr Wolfe alright. Helen's right hand man.

[Cyberbob]

Originally Posted by Nothing

This whole post just confuses me.

This is the article
Heather Simpson to spearhead border response

Helen Clark’s former chief of staff Heather Simpson has come in as Jacinda's Fixer, which Ab was comparing to Pulp Fiction's Winston Wolfe, played by Harvey Keitel, who's work can be seen here.
It's the kind of person you want in a crisis.

[Ab]

Don't get me wrong, H2 isn't one of the good guys any more than Mr Wolfe was. Her fingerprints are all over the Foreshore and Seabed Act that Labour imposed upon Maori people in 2005 and neither she nor the party should ever be forgiven for it. She is also responsible for the "pledge card" tactic that diverted parliamentary funds to Labour's election budget.

She is, however, a grownup and competent - two things that seem to be lacking in the 2020 Labour Cabinet. Moreover her management style is historically "no strikes" and she's happy to invite poor performers for scenic walks in the desert with a shovel.