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Old 22nd May 2020, 22:00     #761
Nich
 
The stimulus can not last for the entire pandemic / joblessness / economic "reset". Aus gov recently announced their real budget for Jobkeeper programme is actually $70b rather than stated $130b. The stimulus is mostly intended to help people pay their fixed expenses (rent, power, internet, food), and was probably also partly intended to let people buy some other non essential shit too (Netflix, clothes, Playstation 4...). Now lots of people wont ever receive it, and for many it will not be enough to get them through the entire duration.

I presume most people's spending habits are changed forever, any stimulus cheque they receive will likely go straight into their savings account for essentials. There will be exceptions who are desperate to return to the way it was ... but those people who want it enough to spend their money to get things back to pre 2020 will be rare. Most people are waiting, holding onto their purchasing power to see how this shitshow plays out.


Some good personal news: Our airbnb is solid booked by current guest until August! Phew

Also: I am thankful that Hazel is 1y/o and I would otherwise be classified as unemployed but I get to be fulltime dad. Very thankful to be in regional area surrounded by nature...

Last edited by Nich : 22nd May 2020 at 22:03.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 12:22     #762
Nich
 
also this:

A Truth Thatís Told With Bad Intent
https://www.epsilontheory.com/a-trut...th-bad-intent/

I have no doubt the virus is real and is a big deal if you get it, but the political / media narrative is still a parade of big lies and the policies that are being put in place (not temporary "war time" policies either, mind) while the lies are still believable.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 20:02     #763
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
One of the biggest problems - or, rather, elements that one must bear in mind - is that the news media of the Western world work out of London, New York, and Washington DC. Those are three places that have been and are being absolutely smashed by COVID-19.

The thing is, hardly any of us live there. The media perception of COVID-19's impacts is defined by people who live in the absolute worst places in the world as far as COVID-19 is concerned. Almost none of us are experiencing the virus the way that journalists and bloggers in those cities are.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 21:45     #764
Nich
 
^^

or as Taleb would say: it's a long tail distribution, and everyone is writing narratives, making policies, forcing Apps down people's throats, and justifying them with the extremes on the graph.

Never use single point estimates for pandemics
https://youtu.be/_ZLrZc9NPVw
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Old Yesterday, 13:32     #765
Nich
 
Market Sniper on Australian markets (and NZ)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn4Wu_75XEU

Last edited by Nich : Yesterday at 13:36.
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Old Today, 10:25     #766
pxpx
 
When's he talk about covid19? I dont have an hour 20 listen to a rant about financial markets.
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Old Today, 10:47     #767
pxpx
 
Ok never mind I skipped through a few mins and the guy is a nutbar.
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Old Today, 13:59     #768
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Jeez when you look at the cases and deaths on a linear graph the US and UK are disasters that aren't slowing down:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-.../12107500?nw=0
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Old Today, 17:02     #769
Lightspeed
 
Globally it's worse than the Boxing Day Tsunami by now.
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