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Old 13th October 2022, 20:16     #3081
StN
I have detailed files
 
As I mentioned before - the baseline sample size for that graph is far too small because of the paradigm shift in the environment from February 2020 onwards. Pull it back 10-20 years and lets have a look. But even then, the orchards are different.
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Old 13th October 2022, 21:13     #3082
sidbo
Raptus regaliter
 
If I got vaccinated, boosted, and a mild dose of Covid (true story) and in the subsequent years I develop myocarditis, was it the vaccine or covid that caused it?

This is largely a rhetorical question btw.
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Old 13th October 2022, 21:38     #3083
Lightspeed
 
I've no doubt said this before, but it's worth restating. A fundamental part health science is finding robust ways of making decisions where we know we can't know. Where not acting is still an action.

This is important because when we look at our practices over time, we can see certain behaviours are more effective than others. We can develop processes and practices that are most likely to be effective and least likely to cause more harm.

While still living in a world of uncertainty.
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Old 14th October 2022, 00:00     #3084
Nich
 
StN, fair enough. Environment did change, and definitely agree it's hard to get a good measure. Still, we calibrated public health to avoid COVID at all costs, and the end result is more sickness from all causes, and more COVID. So we didn't even achieve that.

More Britons than ever are out of work due to long-term sickness
https://www.spectator.com.au/2022/10...term-sickness/

the long tail.


sidbo, if you're older than 40 your chances of myocarditis from disease is slim to none. If you're younger than 40 (male) the background rate of myocarditis is ~10:100,000, and if you inject mRNA you add 3:15,000 to that.

Multisystemic Cellular Tropism of SARS-CoV-2 in Autopsies of COVID-19 Patients
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8394956/
Quote:
No overt pathological findings attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection could be recognized outside of the lung .... Myocyte injury was not found in any case.

but that study isn't fair for myocarditis risk because all patients were older than 55, and half of them were obese. So it's fair to say their immune system packed it in long ago.


LS, What you describe sounds ideal. Like, too good to be true kind of ideal. I have no doubt policies were intended to cause least harm, and many people met in boardrooms coming up with great sounding plans. But my god who cares what the intention was when it produced such woeful outcomes.

I wish not acting was an option made freely available to me. And that if I chose to do nothing I wouldn't have to weigh up losing friends, family over some stupid scandal about who does or doesn't transmit disease. I'm good now, out for blood etc etc, but it hasn't been easy. Discrimination is a bitch.
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Old 14th October 2022, 07:27     #3085
fixed_truth
 
High rates of Long COVID-19 around the world are negatively affecting healthcare systems and economies.

Current research shows that vaccination seemed to reduce the likelihood of long COVID in people who had been infected by 15 to 50 percent.
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Last edited by fixed_truth : 14th October 2022 at 07:30.
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Old 14th October 2022, 07:30     #3086
sidbo
Raptus regaliter
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
But my god who cares what the intention was when it produced such woeful outcomes.
This statement assumes you know what the outcome would have been had nothing been done.

I'm out.
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Old 14th October 2022, 08:20     #3087
Cyberbob
 
I know I'm guilty of it at times too, but this appears to be pages and pages of confirmation bias.

Minds are already made up, and the pool of objective facts are going to be plucked for post content when one is found that confirms existing beliefs.
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Old 14th October 2022, 10:10     #3088
Nich
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by fixed_truth
High rates of Long COVID-19 around the world are negatively affecting healthcare systems and economies.

Current research shows that vaccination seemed to reduce the likelihood of long COVID in people who had been infected by 15 to 50 percent.
If I jumped to a conclusion with no basis -- like you've done here -- you'd say I'm making it all up. So I'm telling you you are making it up.

Show me the research. I will read it.

More than half of Britons suffering from long Covid might not actually have it
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...actually-have/
Quote:
In one analysis, they found that five per cent reported at least one symptom 12 to 16 weeks after their infection.

However, the study also found that 3.4 per cent of people who had not been diagnosed with Covid also reported the same long Covid symptoms.

Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at The Open University, said: “That’s not all that much less than the 5.0 per cent for the infected people, which does show that having one or more of these symptoms isn’t uncommon regardless of Covid-19.


Mental health of Adolescents in the Pandemic: Long-COVID19 or Long-Pandemic Syndrome?
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...1257037v1.full
Quote:
Findings 1560 students with a median age of 15 years participated in this study. 1365 (88%) were seronegative, 188 (12%) were seropositive. Each symptom was present in at least 35% of the students within the last seven days before the survey. However, there was no statistical difference comparing the reported symptoms between seropositive students and seronegative students. Whether the infection was known or unknown to the participant did not influence the prevalence of symptoms.


self-diagnosing with Long-COVID is like wearing a mood bracelet and thinking the colour means something.
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Old 14th October 2022, 10:12     #3089
Nich
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sidbo
This statement assumes you know what the outcome would have been had nothing been done.

I'm out.
Thanks for playing, let us know how the Omicron bivalent goes...
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Old 14th October 2022, 11:44     #3090
_indigo1
 
The impact of stress on physical health is well measured and tested.
How have you controlled for long term mass-stress impact on population health in all of your graphs.

Stress not only shuts down digestive function reducing nutrition, it weakens the immune system significantly and depletes the body of minerals.

It is a VERY real factor in health - and god knows not just the stress of the virus, but the stress of the jabs, all the wanking on about rights being usurped, the lockdowns, the economic impacts.
There is plenty of reasons for chronic stress.
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Old 14th October 2022, 12:49     #3091
Nich
 
I agree with everything you're saying. It wouldn't be a control, but rather a contributing factor. In "peace-time" there was plenty of rhetoric about how important mental health is. Public health threw that all out the window. No comity, just tribe 1 vs tribe 2.
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Old 14th October 2022, 13:20     #3092
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
The health impact I'm most interested in is psychological. What happens to the minds of children who, for two critical years, didn't get to see human faces?
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Old 14th October 2022, 13:53     #3093
Lightspeed
 
The first couple of hurdles to that kind of research would be identifying how much children actually missed out on seeing faces, and then whether there would be more appropriate research that could be done.

After all, Mum and Dad aren't wearing a mask to kiss their kids goodnight. And it's those primary attachment figures that matter most in the earliest years.

Given the state of change in society right now, there's a great volume of impacts on children we could be studying. So why would we study that in particular with our finite resources? It absolutely might be the best thing to study, but there's a good deal of work getting to the point where you can demonstrate this.

I guess we're really only concerned how rich kids were impacted. After all we know a great deal about the devastating consequences of childhood deprivation, but we're largely indifferent to the volume of it in our communities.
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Old 14th October 2022, 16:54     #3094
_indigo1
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
I agree with everything you're saying. It wouldn't be a control, but rather a contributing factor. In "peace-time" there was plenty of rhetoric about how important mental health is. Public health threw that all out the window. No comity, just tribe 1 vs tribe 2.
But it is a plausible alternative hypothesis for a change in dynamics you are showing in the data matching the timelines you are using as correlates for the cause.

So you can't use those graphs as any kind of evidence. You can't even go for likelihood given lack of alternative explanations - because there are.

It's just correlation rather than causation.
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Old 15th October 2022, 07:42     #3095
sidbo
Raptus regaliter
 
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...22.951314/full

"This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis and the largest study to date of acute myocarditis after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination or infection that estimate the risk ratio of myocarditis due to SARS-CoV-2 infection vs. COVID-19 vaccination. We found that the risk of myocarditis increased by a factor of 2 and 15 after vaccination and infection, respectively. This translates into more than a 7-fold higher risk in the infection group compared to the vaccination group. Among the persons with myocarditis in the vaccinated group, 61% (IQR: 39–87%) were men. Younger populations demonstrated an increased risk of myocarditis after receiving the COVID-19 vaccination. Nevertheless, the risk of hospitalization and death was low. This review is important as there is much hesitancy in the general population of receiving the COVID-19 vaccine given its serious adverse effects."
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Old 15th October 2022, 08:51     #3096
Cyberbob
 
So it's the prisoner's dilemma.

Volunteer to get 2x, or risk getting either nothing or 15x.
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Old 15th October 2022, 09:35     #3097
sidbo
Raptus regaliter
 
Well, volunteer to get nothing or 2 x, or do nothing to get nothing or 15 x

But there's still a question for me WRT these and similar studies is what I alluded to above, where do you put the people that got vaccinated and covid and develop myocarditis? How do you even track that?
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Old 16th October 2022, 13:58     #3098
Nich
 
Thank you.
Quote:
The relative risk (RR) for myocarditis was more than seven times higher in the infection group than in the vaccination group [RR: 15 (95% CI: 11.09–19.81, infection group]

and RR: 2 (95% CI: 1.44-2.65, vaccine group).
Baseline is no COVID infection, no vaccination.

Infection (vaccinated or not) the RR is 15 (vs uninfected). I'm not seeing unvaccinated infection myocarditis rates vs vaccinated infection myocarditis rates in this study.

Vaccination the RR is 2 (vs unvaccinated). (which corresponds with the Florida findings (84% increase)
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Old 16th October 2022, 15:05     #3099
Nich
 
also, it's not 0 or 2x.

You have a baseline chance of myocarditis and the RELATIVE risk ratio is 2:1 (getting vaccinated) or 15:1 (getting infected). in ABSOLUTE numbers baseline might be 0.001% and getting vaccinated kicks that up to 0.002

You can play the same game with vaccine effectiveness. Say it is RELATIVE 90% effective at stopping you getting symptoms / going to hospital. in ABSOLUTE numbers your initial risk may have been 0.002%, vaccine bumped that to 0.001%.

Of course, I've played enough Diablo to know a 0.001 PROC isn't to be sneezed at.
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Last edited by Nich : 16th October 2022 at 15:09.
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Old 17th October 2022, 13:34     #3100
Nich
 
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...10.13.512134v1
Quote:
The recently identified, globally predominant SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (BA.1) is highly transmissible, even in fully vaccinated individuals, and causes attenuated disease compared with other major viral variants recognized to date. The Omicron spike (S) protein, with an unusually large number of mutations, is considered the major driver of these phenotypes. We generated chimeric recombinant SARS-CoV-2 encoding the S gene of Omicron in the backbone of an ancestral SARS-CoV-2 isolate and compared this virus with the naturally circulating Omicron variant. The Omicron S-bearing virus robustly escapes vaccine-induced humoral immunity, mainly due to mutations in the receptor binding motif (RBM), yet unlike naturally occurring Omicron, efficiently replicates in cell lines and primary-like distal lung cells. In K18-hACE2 mice, while Omicron causes mild, non-fatal infection, the Omicron S-carrying virus inflicts severe disease with a mortality rate of 80%. This indicates that while the vaccine escape of Omicron is defined by mutations in S, major determinants of viral pathogenicity reside outside of S.


Translation:
-Omicron is wayyy more contagious than Wuhan strain, we know Omicron Spike protein is a major factor
-We used gain-of-function to splice Omicron S gene into Wuhan strain.
-Our newly invented virus completely bypasses any vaccine immunity
-Out newly invented virus increases mortality rate by 80%
-Turns out it's not just virus Spike that determines deadliness of virus


Yay science! What fascinating findings. Here's hoping this one doesn't escape the lab too.
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Old 17th October 2022, 14:02     #3101
Nich
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by StN
As I mentioned before - the baseline sample size for that graph is far too small because of the paradigm shift in the environment from February 2020 onwards. Pull it back 10-20 years and lets have a look. But even then, the orchards are different.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-m...cess-mortality
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Old 17th October 2022, 18:46     #3102
_indigo1
 
Hey Nich, DrTitus

Get in line boys!

Vaccines to Treat Cancer Possible by 2030, Say BioNTech Founders
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Old 17th October 2022, 22:32     #3103
Nich
 
hah! I'll wait until they test it on 8 mice. That is if drug testing and clinical trials are actually still required. Maybe there'll be a cancer "emergency" and everyone simply MUST get it.

Related, Moderna are getting in on it all too with their post-heart attack mRNA drug. It's a bit on the nose really.

When I first learned of mRNA (From Peter Diamandis, Ray Kurtzweil, et al) these were the first applications dreamed up by the people researching it. It all sounded so good back then. But now, I see it's less research and more just inject and see what happens. Count me out. I'm sure one day an mRNA drug will pass Phase III clinical trials, but we're not there yet.
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Old 17th October 2022, 22:51     #3104
Nich
 
Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel Announces New mRNA Shot to Treat Heart Muscle After a Heart Attack
https://rumble.com/v1nd8dg-moderna-c...muscle-af.html
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Old 18th October 2022, 11:25     #3105
DrTiTus
HENCE WHY FOREVER ALONE
 
Rolling eyes

Quote:
Originally Posted by _indigo1
lol cool. Inject yourself with instructions on how to turn your cells into cancer cells so your body gets an education on what having cancer is like. It's both 95% effective and not effective at all and no one said you won't get cancer - you've misinterpreted what "effective" means because you're not qualified to understand. When your body is riddled with cancer, that's how you know it's working. But imagine how much more cancer you'd have if you didn't get the treatment. It's expected that with 80% of the population vaccinated against cancer we'll beat cancer, but everyone getting cancer anyway is also a huge success because that's also expected now - the science has changed since I started this sentence, and you're going to need another treatment. Everyone knows your body doesn't know how to fight cancer if you don't have cancer, so sign up to get your artificial cancer to become a cancer fighting machine because your body will figure it out when you inject yourself with it. Don't take your chances and wait until you actually have cancer - trust the science, and get a headstart on cancer today. It's for the good of society.
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Old 18th October 2022, 13:01     #3106
_indigo1
 
Lol, so triggered.
(and yes I can see the jest)
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Old 19th October 2022, 14:56     #3107
Nich
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...10.13.512134v1

Translation:
-Omicron is wayyy more contagious than Wuhan strain, we know Omicron Spike protein is a major factor
-We used gain-of-function to splice Omicron S gene into Wuhan strain.
-Our newly invented virus completely bypasses any vaccine immunity
-Out newly invented virus increases mortality rate by 80%
-Turns out it's not just virus Spike that determines deadliness of virus

Yay science! What fascinating findings. Here's hoping this one doesn't escape the lab too.
https://www.ecohealthalliance.org/20...-million-grant
Quote:
NEW YORK – 30, AUGUST, 2022 – EcoHealth Alliance (EHA), in partnership with Boston University, was awarded a $1 million Predictive Intelligence for Pandemic Prevention Phase I (PIPP) grant by the National Science Foundation. The team of scientists will strategize methods of early infectious disease detection and intervention.


Gain of function never stopped or even slowed down, EcoHealth Alliance still gets funding. The next pandemic is literally a lab leak away.
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Old 19th October 2022, 23:53     #3108
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
-Out newly invented virus increases mortality rate by 80%
Cmon man, that's just made up. You're not even reading the report. The report says that in tests the new strain has a mortality rate of 80%. That's not the same thing.
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Old 20th October 2022, 00:10     #3109
Nich
 
Quote:
In in vitro infection assays, the Omicron spike-bearing ancestral SARS-CoV-2 (Omi-S) exhibits much higher replication efficiency compared with Omicron. Similarly, in K18-hACE2 mice, Omi-S contrasts with non-fatal Omicron and causes a severe disease leading to around 80% mortality


I stand corrected. It's worse than what I said.
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Old 20th October 2022, 00:13     #3110
DrTiTus
HENCE WHY FOREVER ALONE
 
Gentlemen, start your vindaloo
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Old 20th October 2022, 00:19     #3111
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
Quote:
In in vitro infection assays, the Omicron spike-bearing ancestral SARS-CoV-2 (Omi-S) exhibits much higher replication efficiency compared with Omicron. Similarly, in K18-hACE2 mice, Omi-S contrasts with non-fatal Omicron and causes a severe disease leading to around 80% mortality
I stand corrected. It's worse than what I said.
Original SARS-Cov2 has 100% mortality. This strain isn't even as mean as the OG.
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Old 20th October 2022, 00:41     #3112
DrTiTus
HENCE WHY FOREVER ALONE
 
It's not peer reviewed, so by the standards set forth by this community we can learn absolutely zero from this and consider it worthless.
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Old 20th October 2022, 00:50     #3113
Nich
 
hah. Regardless of the soundness of their findings, we can learn one crucial thing: These psychopaths are continuing to do gain of function. When they gaslit us for years that they WEREN'T doing it.

That they've invented something they say is slightly less infectious than Omicron, and slightly less deadly than Wuhan strain should be terrifying.

One other thing to take away is: Vaccinating against S-protein alone never was robust protection from full virus payload.
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Last edited by Nich : 20th October 2022 at 00:53.
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Old 20th October 2022, 10:40     #3114
Nich
 
Digital ID Wallet - Thales
https://youtu.be/PxvNzzgoJX8?t=30

Not enough guillotines...
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Old 20th October 2022, 10:49     #3115
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
The Guardian:

Australia’s Covid lockdown rules found to have lacked fairness and compassion

Review led by Peter Shergold finds some lockdowns and border closures were not necessary and schools should have remained open

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...cessary-report
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Old 20th October 2022, 10:56     #3116
_indigo1
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
Digital ID Wallet - Thales
https://youtu.be/PxvNzzgoJX8?t=30

Not enough guillotines...
You should make a Great Reset thread.
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Old 20th October 2022, 12:02     #3117
Nich
 
I wouldn't want people to think I'm a conspiracy theorist.

...but I think we'd need a whole new section in the Forums for that.
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Old 20th October 2022, 12:38     #3118
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
I'LL DO IT JUST WATCH ME
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Old 20th October 2022, 14:25     #3119
Nich
 
It'd be just me and DrT going deeper and deeper trying to scare eachother.
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Old 20th October 2022, 14:45     #3120
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
That's what you want us to think.
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