Ethereum

[Ab]

It seems to have bounced off 1000 and is heading north again. Early days though.

[Lightspeed]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-market-2022-6

The smaller projects that fail will help strengthen the market, and the projects that flounder may eventually be regulated out of existence, O'Leary said. Such collapses can also help indicate when the crypto sell-off hits bottom, as a "defining capitulation" will signal the start of a rebound, he said.

Ultimately, the veteran investor isn't just betting on crypto or the blockchain, but the human resources that he sees piling into the sector.

"Look at an MIT graduating class of engineers," O'Leary said. "The smartest people want to work on the [block]chain. So you've got the majority of the best intellectual capital in the world solving poor outcomes on the chain — why wouldn't you expect that to work?"

Buy the dip, skip the shitcoins.

[Native]

Still buying my $50 bucks a week of ETH.

I spend twice that amount on fucking gas in a week & sometimes that much on lunch in Auckland CBD.


Hurts looking at total portfolio value though.

[Ab]

Yeah tough week.

ETH jumped 29% this morning though.

[DrTiTus]

Serious question: Do you have an exit price? Like, do you know how much you've spent, and what the price of ETH has to be before you start to lose?

When there are shortages of products in the world, people are losing their jobs, and no one can afford things - the last thing people want is a virtual currency that you can't spend.

Don't be a bag holder. Take your intial investment, gamble the profit. That's how you casino. Anything other than that is risky business.

[Ab]

Just noticed that we're not far off a flippening: USDC market cap is getting awfully close to that of Tether.

[Juju]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

the last thing people want is a virtual currency that you can't spend.

But you can spend it, in numerous ways. Just depends what you mean by 'spend'.

Eth was never meant to replace or compete with fiat currencies.

[DrTiTus]

If you're gonna come at me with some specific limited definition of "spend", then you already admitted it's worthless.

[DrTiTus]

Originally Posted by Ab

It seems to have bounced off 1000 and is heading north again. Early days though.

Unless it gets past 1250 it's going nowhere. 1100 is the natural range for the immediate future.

[DrTiTus]

Originally Posted by Juju

Eth was never meant to replace or compete with fiat currencies.

It's a shitty VM that costs money and runs really slowly.

Buy my C64, it's faster, and cheaper.

[Ab]

Well the whole point is to buy it while it's shitty based on the probability that it will become not shitty. Nobody buys stock in a company based on PRESENT earnings, you buy based on the probability of FUTURE earnings.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

Unless it gets past 1250 it's going nowhere. 1100 is the natural range for the immediate future.

Crossed 1250 this afternoon.

[Know me.]

Ethereum past earnings zero. Ethereum future earnings zero.

[Lightspeed]

I have a buddy who lives off staked earnings. Very careful how they pay taxes.

[DrTiTus]

Old Saylor still "buying the dip"

SEC Filing

As of June 28, 2022, MicroStrategy, together with its subsidiaries, held an aggregate of approximately 129,699 bitcoins, which were acquired at an aggregate purchase price of approximately $3.98 billion and an average purchase price of approximately $30,664 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses.

At the current price of ~20k/BTC, he's only down $1.4B.

I think he's crazier than Max Kaiser who at least got in early and has nothing to lose - I'm sure Max recouped his initial investment a long time ago, and now it's just a stupid game to him.

[Lightspeed]

If the value of ETH drops (or your bankroll grows) to the point you can justify buying enough to stake your own node (32ETH), then do that.

You can get into staking with lower amounts, but if you're confident in running a node, this is the most no-nonsense way of getting a sustainable return from ETH.

The gamble is that the platform overcomes current and future hard problems on its way to becoming the global infrastructure it aspires to be. The fundamentals are still sound, but the problems are real. And every day more people are tackling them.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

Old Saylor still "buying the dip"

SEC Filing

If one has USD 10 million to drop on BTC, now’s the time to do it. And he did.

[DrTiTus]

I was going to post this earlier today, but never submitted it. I am seeing the movement right now, so I'm posting it, even if you think I'm just writing this to pretend I predicted. It's kind of uncanny.

ETH Prediction: Failed to break 1250 twice. Sign of market weakness. I expect it will drop to the 1000 mark, and bounce around between 1000-1100, with 900 as strong support. 1000 is a bit of a psychological support/round number. Under 1000 will have some people deciding to buy, so it'll wave around a bit. 750 is the absolute bottom.

BTC Prediction: Will sit in the 18-19K range, with 16K as absolute bottom.

This is just based on points in the historic graph where supports seemed to be in the past and people were buying/selling. You can see these points for yourself, it's not magic or even math. The up and down movements will just be traders taking profit, not genuine confidence. There's not enough "new money" to make significant gains, so it'll just move slightly and people will be taking a 10% gain and then selling again.

Going below these "bottoms" will be a bad sign, as they take people back to pre Dec 2020 levels, and most people's gains will be wiped out. I don't know if people can afford crypto, food, mortgage/rent AND gas to go to work, so I don't expect much to be happening until the world economy [confidence] improves.

Good luck.

[DrTiTus]

If you're interested to see more real time trends, I suggest turning on the Bollinger Band indicator, with default settings (20,2). It's a 20 time unit moving average, with 2 standard deviations either side (95% confidence interval). The prices move within these intestine looking shapes, and when they go outside the 2sd lines, they tend to revert to the mean, either horizontally (because the moving average adjusts), or with trades to get back to the mean/average by either humans or bots (there's no difference as far as the market is concerned).

I don't know that it reveals much for the future, but you get an idea of whether things are staying above the 20 MA, or sitting below and bouncing off it. I am not confident enough to try and profit from this (I just assume there will be friction from fees etc, and I don't want to use leverage).

One indicator doesn't tell you much on its own, but when you combine with others you can learn something.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Ajax

Celsius has always been an obvious Ponzi - the red flags have been waving for years.

Celsius files for bankruptcy:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/emba...rce-says-.html

[Lightspeed]

Slowly but surely things are moving forward:

Ethereum devs confirm the perpetual date for The Merge

[Ab]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

ETH Prediction: Failed to break 1250 twice. Sign of market weakness. I expect it will drop to the 1000 mark, and bounce around between 1000-1100, with 900 as strong support. 1000 is a bit of a psychological support/round number. Under 1000 will have some people deciding to buy, so it'll wave around a bit. 750 is the absolute bottom.

BTC Prediction: Will sit in the 18-19K range, with 16K as absolute bottom.

Narrator voice: ETH presently 1355, BTC 21320

[Ab]

I just noticed something; Tether no longer has a majority of the stablecoin market. USDC+BUSD are bigger. USDC is a few percent away from flippening Tether all by itself.

[DrTiTus]

Originally Posted by Ab

Narrator voice: ETH presently 1355, BTC 21320

Yep, it's broken the 1250, although the massive leap up looks like a sucker rally - it spiked up in one big go. Is that market confidence or a whale? I think my numbers are still valid for the downside, and only time will tell whether this is the end of the bear market (I don't think it is), or if it's just a temporary notch up to get more people to buy in so others can dump theirs. I don't have any ETH, so I don't care either way - I can't win nor can I lose.

I still think that the #1 use case for ETH is not actually smart contracts or actual dApps, but just selling it to someone else for more than you paid. If crypto itself is confusing to the average person, then try explaining how to code a smart contract to actually use the EVM, while ensuring it is bug-free. For all the time/money you spend trying to get that shit to go, you might as well just write a real contract with a lawyer that's enforceable by actual authorities. That's the only reason I'm pessimistic - no one really knows what the fuck is going on, just number go up, gotta get some.

[Ab]

ETH 1574, BTC 22262. Zoom.

[DrTiTus]

Tesla has sold 75% of its Bitcoin

Unsure of when this happened...

[Know me.]

god giveth and god taketh away.

[Ab]

That would explain why Bitcoin is (checks notes) up 15% this week. A massive high-profile sell-off will do that.

wut

[DrTiTus]

Originally Posted by Ab

That would explain why Bitcoin is (checks notes) up 15% this week. A massive high-profile sell-off will do that.

wut

I assume it wasn't just done yesterday. It was from a quarterly report, so it may be partly responsible for the big selloff? That's just speculation, I don't know the Tesla wallet address[es].

[Ab]

It's entirely possible that in the NEXT quarterly report, Tesla will confirm that it has bought the dip and now owns even more than before it sold. Which will pump the price. And then in the quarterly report AFTER THAT...

[_indigo1]

Originally Posted by Ab

... And then the quarterly report AFTER THAT...

will be minted as an NFT and used to purchase Twitter (a second time)

[DrTiTus]

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor steps down as CEO after company reports $900 million in crypto losses

What was he thinking, still buying when he was so far underwater.

The only calls he should be making now is to the gambling helpline.

[Ab]

That investment's up about 20% since he bought. That was a good buy.

[DrTiTus]

Originally Posted by crocos

Good watch:
The Problem with NFTs

I finally got around to watching this, and there are many laughs throughout.

It's a long watch, but I left it on while making soup and cleaning up, and it was very entertaining. The guys nails it, but the scam continues, because ... few understand.

[DrTiTus]

Originally Posted by Ab

That investment's up about 20% since he bought. That was a good buy.

Hypothetical scenario:
I buy a used car for $1000 which doesn't run. That is to say, it looks like a car, but doesn't have the utility of a car, because it can't do the day to day things that a car does. But I like it because you can't buy these cars anymore. They just don't make them.

Someone else just bought the same model, same year used car for $2000 which also doesn't run. They also like it, because it's a classic. They're rare.

Have I doubled my money? Or am I still just $1000 poorer and the owner of a useless vehicle?

At what point can I brag to my friends that I made money? Shall I fill my entire backyard with these $1000 cars, knowing that someone paid $2000 sometime? Can we both tell others that we are most certainly going to get 10x our money, from the simple fact they don't make them anymore?

I realize cars are not digital currencies, but from an accounting perspective, has Saylor made /any money at all/ from crypto?

[Ab]

The value of an asset that Microstrategy continues to invest in is down from its all-time high, but up from its recent low, at the moment. That's all you can say.

Saylor's position is that Bitcoin -- and this is just about Bitcoin, no other crypto -- will, in the future, be worth lots more than it is today. All we have to do is wait in order to see if he's right or not.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by DrTiTus

ETH Prediction: Failed to break 1250 twice. Sign of market weakness. I expect it will drop to the 1000 mark, and bounce around between 1000-1100, with 900 as strong support. 1000 is a bit of a psychological support/round number. Under 1000 will have some people deciding to buy, so it'll wave around a bit. 750 is the absolute bottom.

BTC Prediction: Will sit in the 18-19K range, with 16K as absolute bottom.

Originally Posted by Ab

Narrator voice: ETH presently 1355, BTC 21320

1810, 24130

[Ajax]

Tornado Cash added to US sanctions list and hundreds of millions in assets blocked.

Tornadowned.

[Ab]

ETH pushing 1900 now.

ETH and BTC seem quite detached from each other in terms of price movement. BTC is up 15% past 30 days; ETH is up 60%.

[Lightspeed]

Every other day I'm hearing news in the ways Ethereum is progressing, Bitcoin is just what it already is.

One of the current things to get your head around is zero-knowledge rollups.