nCoV 2019

[MadMax]

Originally Posted by Rivertrog

Had a meeting with fortinet last week before all this travel ban shite and they said they were getting a LOT of calls from people trying to ramp up vpn /remote access capcity.

All the nerdy feeds i follow are talking about this, along with laptop shortages.

Check your licences and VPN subnet ranges.

[Know me.]

Will take an act of god not to close under 20,000 today.

[StN]

Originally Posted by Trigga*happY

So how long before we start seeing headlines like "DDoS attacks cripple economy" with everyone working from home? I can't imagine that someone isn't already thinking about it.

The Covid phish scams are ramping up - Risky Business podcast had a good segment on it last night - that and a prediction that any Malware attacks based around Covid on critical supporting infrastructure may get a more extreme reaction from multiple enforcement agencies.

[Cyberbob]

Originally Posted by pxpx

Call us when it's below 20,000

Can I call you yet? 19,898.92

[pxpx]

Yes

[crocos]

SafeTravel sent an email: "If you're going to return to NZ, do it while there are still commercial options to return"

[StN]

OoKiE better be enroute from Mexico - his options are running out...

[Ab]

Qantas just “stood down” 20,000 staff.

[Know me.]

No report of bank runs I can see anywhere.

I'm stuck between saying its irresponsible to make a post saying there is a bank run and my own paranoia that it could be happening, and it’s just being kept out of the media.

Anyway, anyone got a spare shovel? I have something I need to bury in the back yard tonight.

[crocos]

Originally Posted by Know me.

Anyway, anyone got a spare shovel? I have something I need to bury in the back yard tonight.

If there's one thing Fallout has taught me, it's you need to hide your bottle-caps.

[Lightspeed]

Fallout taught me most people die. I don't think we're there yet. Of course, we are vulnerable, if crisis comes upon crisis, we may wobble some.

[Nich]

Originally Posted by Know me.

No report of bank runs I can see anywhere.

I'm stuck between saying its irresponsible to make a post saying there is a bank run and my own paranoia that it could be happening, and it’s just being kept out of the media.

Anyway, anyone got a spare shovel? I have something I need to bury in the back yard tonight.

Just try to get money out of the bank yourself, and see how much of a fight they put up. I'm calling it a bank run because I know enough people who are getting their cash out, and their banks give them the same reasons:
- We don't have that much cash in the branch
- We can order it in and we'll have it ready to pick up next week
- Many of our customers are withdrawing cash, and we need to make sure everyone has enough

There won't be a news story about it because they'd probably get sued by the banks, or the Aus Fed police will kick in the door and take their computers.

Personally, I keep the following in mind (From Australian perspective, but probably applies equally as well to NZ):
- The world economy is in simultaneous Demand Shock + Supply Shock. It's frozen.
- The majority of businesses will not reopen
- Australian Banks stay afloat because of mortgage repayments
- Over a million households were already under mortgage stress in 2018 and 2019
- Unemployment is about to skyrocket
- For those that keep their jobs, productivity is about to tank. The majority of people don't know how to actually be productive at home.
- Fractional reserve banking ended on Monday. Banks are not required to keep any reserves
- Trillions of dollars are being minted almost on a daily basis, and volatility is growing
- No one really knows the death rate and hospitalisation rate of COVID 19
- No one really knows whether the virus leaves people with permanent damage to their lungs

[DrTiTus]

As a contractor, I've just had a "tools down" notice. I've got one small task to complete, but after that, only work specifically asked for, and it's likely to be minimal. I've applied for the part time self employment supplement to see me through 12 weeks of potential unemployment. Thanks NZ taxpayers! I'll pay you back with mediocre tunes.

PS: Are you really a prepper if you don't have an army surplus gas mask?

[Know me.]

Originally Posted by Nich

Just try to get money out of the bank yourself, and see how much of a fight they put up. I'm calling it a bank run because I know enough people who are getting their cash out, and their banks give them the

I don’t see it will get that bad, it’s still going to get tough and be stressful because we haven’t faced this situation in living memory, but the virus will become benign or a vaccine will be found in the next 12 months....and then the cycle will begin again.

Mortgagees will be given mortgage holidays and central banks and governments will guarantee the retail banks in a quid pro quo.

Even though things are nowhere as bad as it was back in 1933, it’s a good time to watch FDR's "The Only Thing We Have to Fear is Fear Itself" speech. It’s a phrase that’s been used so many times it’s become a cliché, but it is what it is. If you have never heard it, it’s well worth a listen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nSgMWW-808 its 19 minutes long but listen to the whole speech.

Now I know there was a world war shortly after but just watch the dam speech.

[pxpx]

Originally Posted by Nich

- Fractional reserve banking ended on Monday.

Interesting, when did it start?

[Know me.]

Other hat on now, anyone wanting to make a call on the bottom? Lets stick to wall street dow jones index. 15252

A dozen rolls of quadruple ply, triple length toilet paper to the winner.

[Ajax]

Bank runs can become self-fulfilling prophecies when panicky idiots start encouraging people to withdraw all their money.

[Know me.]

Originally Posted by Ajax

Bank runs can become self-fulfilling prophecies when panicky idiots start encouraging people to withdraw all their money.

Give us your best punt on the bottom. I'm good for the TP, at least for now.

[crocos]

Well, looks like the whole country is in self-imposed Quarantine after tonight.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...order-controls

[Ab]

Australia just did the same thing.

[crocos]

Snap, was just coming back to post that.

LOL, Dual citizenship: I could probably travel if I was feeling enough of a selfish twat. Would just take longer.

[blynk]

And probably cost you a shit load more.
I haven't looked at costs of flights. What do they look like?

[StN]

Originally Posted by Mrs StN

The boy has gone to Dunedin - why are you keeping these old displays??

You spent $30 on a what? Dyna-dock? WTF is that for?

Why do you still have this old HP2200DN printer? Is this part of your vintage collection?

You want a cheap and nasty Epson inkjet/Scanner for printing decals?

Why are there so many power cables in the shed? And those mice and crap?

Here's your working from home desk dear - just plug your laptop power in, and this single USB cable, and you can use these external displays, the scanner and laser print on corporate letterhead.

You're welcome.

[Cyberbob]

Originally Posted by blynk

And probably cost you a shit load more.
I haven't looked at costs of flights. What do they look like?

Pretty average. $300-400 one way. No rock bottom pricing yet.

[Ab]

Put 91 in the car at 99.8c/l this morning. Yay collapse

[Nich]

Marc Rebillet - QUARANTINE STREAM: DAY TWO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgbrvN_gVSo

Currently singing about COVID 19 cover-up.. genius.

[StN]

Originally Posted by Nich

Marc Rebillet - QUARANTINE STREAM: DAY TWO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgbrvN_gVSo

Currently singing about COVID 19 cover-up.. genius.

Loved the TP song in Day One.

[Nich]

Dow Jones may get down to 10,000:
- Smart people don't want to catch a falling knife so money won't buy back in yet. Especially while:
- People are scared of the Wuhan Flu, not the economy. When people catch a breath and look at the economy another wave of fear will kick in.
- There will be more infected with Wuhan Flu tomorrow compared to today
- There will be more unemployed tomorrow compared to today
- There will be more businesses in bankrupcy tomorrow compared to today
- There will be more debt defaults tomorrow compared to today
- There will be more retirement funds evaporating tomorrow compared to today
- This virus is with us for the rest of 2020, and well into 2021.

The world will not be the same on the other side of this. The Dow Jones Index tracks many companies that aren't doing very well at all through this crisis:
3M - Safe. Demand may grow slightly in short term
American Express - Risk: credit freeze, debt defaults, demand shock
Apple Inc. - Risk: Supply shock (sweatshops), demand shock
Boeing - Risk: Asking for a bail out already
Caterpillar Inc. - Risk: Construction will slow during downturn
Chevron Corporation - Risk: Factories closed, oil demand crashing
Cisco Systems - Safe with more remote workers
The Coca-Cola Company - Safe, sugar yay!
Dow Inc. - Safe
ExxonMobil - Risk: Oil demand crashing, shale is energy negative and profit negative
Goldman Sachs - Safe, they profited during sub-prime mortgages, and they will profit off this chaos
The Home Depot - Safe
IBM - Safe
Intel - Safe
Johnson & Johnson - Safe, drugs
JPMorgan Chase - Safe, profit from chaos, recipient of Fed money printing
McDonald's - Somewhat Safe: They may close many restaurants
Merck & Co. - Safe, drugs
Microsoft - Safe, remote workers
Nike - Risk: Demand shock, supply shock (sweatshops)
Pfizer - Safe, drugs
Procter & Gamble - Risk: Beauty products, low demand luxury items
The Travelers Companies - Risk: Many insurance claims incoming
UnitedHealth Group - Risk: Many insurance claims incoming, facilities may be out of action due to virus spread
United Technologies - Risk: Aerospace , airline equipment demand shock
Verizon - Safe
Visa Inc. - Credit freeze threat, demand shock, consumer confidence shock
Walmart - Safe, guns and supplies
Walgreens Boots Alliance
The Walt Disney Company - Tied up in streaming wars, demand shock and consumer confidence shock, and no one visiting disney land for the rest of 2020

[blynk]

Was that a copy and paste. Otherwise I am disappointed your naming of the virus

[Know me.]

Originally Posted by Nich

Dow Jones may get down to 10,000:

I'll put you down for 10,000

When you say there is "risk" for a stock are you saying there is a risk that they are going to zero or that the price will go down from here following the trend until it hits 10,000?

I checked the price on all the stock you listed as safe down to The Home Depot and they have all lost large percentages in line with the rest of the market. "Just scanning" the rest they are following the trend except Walmart which initialy went down but is now here it was end of 2019.

None of those companies are going out of business, even the ones that are clearly fucked like airlines which just can’t conduct operations because the borders have been shut will get bailed out. If there is no “free” money from governments or central banks or no one is buying on public stock exchanges people like Warren Buffett will step in with a smile. I remember when he was buying in the GFC when there was still fear in the market.

[Know me.]

double post

[Nich]

I doubt any will go to zero, but never say never. I see Risk as a risk to their ability to produce or sell their main product offering in the current environment.

All companies will be dropping regardless of real P/L due to short selling, end of corporate stock buyback scheme, and liquidity drying up. So yes, they will all follow the trend and some companies may attract some brave investors along the way.

And yes, blynk, I don't intend to be racist in calling it something other than COVID19. I think China / WHO have put the world's health and economies at risk by the following factors:
- Failing to call it a pandemic when it clearly was one
- wasting precious time during press conferences on addressing trolls on social media, and asking people to not be racist
- renaming the disease
- redefining the transmission factors
- fudging the numbers
- encouraging people to travel to and from China, and keep buying shit from China
- Once the virus was renamed to COVID-19, China sends out propaganda to claim the virus came from Italy (that didn't fly), then that it came from the US (also no bites).

Now China says they've flattened the curve. They get to 80,000 cases and then the curve plateaus... come on! Well if they have really found a cure then they are obliged to share their method / clinical response with the rest of the world ASAP!

So currently I feel a bit dumb that China / WHO have told us what to call the virus, and we've swallowed it because they gave us a politically correct reason for the name choice. I guess we'll see how genuine they are when the next pandemic sweeps the globe and WHO gives it a name: "American Pig Cooties"

[Lightspeed]

I don't particularly expect competence from our leaders. It takes some time for them to get scared once they realise they're not insulated from whatever the proles are clamouring about, before jumping to the adults to help deal with the mess.

While we're riding the fringe, it's curious to me how the response and consequences to this virus seem very close to what we need to do in response to climate change. Maybe there's a secret cabal working to save the world, due to benevolence or self-interest. I could believe it.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Nich

- Once the virus was renamed to COVID-19, China sends out propaganda to claim the virus came from Italy (that didn't fly), then that it came from the US (also no bites).

https://twitter.com/wutingzy/status/1240661305792565248

[Know me.]

Originally Posted by Ab

https://twitter.com/wutingzy/status/1240661305792565248

I got no idea what they are speaking about but they have coiped the CNN/FOX talking heads format perfectly.

[Know me.]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

I don't particularly expect competence from our leaders. It takes some time for them to get scared once they realise they're not insulated from whatever the proles are clamouring about, before jumping to the adults to help deal with the mess.

I don’t share your cynicism on the leadership and expect competence in times like these and have been impressed by the leadership shown by Ardern in the last week. What else can they do but listen to the experts and provide moral support?

Ok plus 900M to Air NZ.

Don’t believe it, it will be business as usual in 12 months. Whatever your feelings on climate change this will do nothing other than delay it until the virus is overcome.

[Lightspeed]

We haven't seen competence. I'm not willing to consider that conspiracy right now, just usually scrabbling to maintain power and position. NZ continues to demonstrate it stands apart from the world, not just geographically.

[Lightspeed]

I guess it's relative though.

[Know me.]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

I guess it's relative though.

hedging your bets like Nich then?

[fixed_truth]

I guess this all demonstrates that if climate change was taken seriously enough then the world could mobilise.

So to future proof society we need/more of universal health care (incl. sick leave), universal basic income & privatisation of crucial services for a start. Basically we need a more socialism.