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Old 30th March 2020, 17:50     #441
pxpx
 
All the best Ab

edit: oh hey new page

lets see how long until Nich predicts the fall of humanity again
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Old 30th March 2020, 21:31     #442
Delphinus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
I'm not going to lie or try and macho this out - I'm scared. In the space of a few weeks my concerns have gone from "yeah I'll spend a bit more and get the nice soy milk" to "try and stave off homelessness for as long as possible".
Will this help you now at least?
Covid-19 coronavirus: New Zealanders living in Australia able to access payments
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12321030
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Old 31st March 2020, 01:12     #443
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Not sure. I should be covered by Australia's "default" aid in virtue of having bitten the pillow and taken Australian citizenship a while back.

Here's a weird example of a perfectly rational decision that would have seemed insane a week ago. Princess and I have decided to not travel in the same car. We're immigrants with no family where we live and we have two children. My sister lives in Sydney; Princess's family are back in NZ; either may as well be Mars as far as accessibility is concerned now. If a life-threatening accident happens to Princess and I simultaneously our children are fucked. The bank sells our home, our possessions go in a dumpster and get picked over by neighbourhood scavengers, the kids disappear into the foster care system, distant relatives try and get answers from the State remotely but yeah nah we're dealing with a pandemic, call back another day.

Tiny tiny risk. But still not worth it. So no more accompanying each other to the store.
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Old 31st March 2020, 12:30     #444
Nich
 
remember Si, when Prince died his entire estate went to the State first, then his family had to fight over the scraps. Don't be like Prince, have a Will... but in every other respect definitely be like Prince.

You can organise it online (print at home) if getting to a lawyer isn't possible.

Also, you can distribute your Super to anyone you please incase the worst happens.

First steps for all of us should be to reduce the burn rate, consider the COSTS of taking a new job especially if it distracts you from getting your affairs in order at home, take a new job if it suits you, and work out if eligible for grants.

If you have a mortgage, negotiate with mortgage broker + bank to switch to interest only repayments.

Many big old trees will fall in the forest of the old world, we can be the new young trees to make use of the new resources made available to us. Unemployment can be distressing, but it is also a gift to take the time to evaluate the world, where it's heading, and how you can bring value now and in the future.
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Old 31st March 2020, 15:23     #445
Ajax
Architeuthis
 
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has slipped as low as US$7 per barrel. That's less than the cost of a pint in London.
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Old 31st March 2020, 16:24     #446
Farmer Joe
Word To Your Motherboard!
 
How does one buy barrels of oil?
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Old 31st March 2020, 16:28     #447
Lightspeed
 
Law experts answer your employment questions during the Covid-19 lockdown - RNZ

Simon Martin's less the optimistic outlook, emphasis mine:

Quote:
Thinking pragmatically, employers should be talking directly to their employees and spelling out the circumstances they are facing. I recommend that, in three or four months time, if the world returns to some normalcy, employers are going to have to be able to show that they acted reasonably.
__________________
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Old 31st March 2020, 16:47     #448
Ajax
Architeuthis
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Farmer Joe
How does one buy barrels of oil?
One buys a book titled ‘Energy Trading for Dummies’ or somesuch.
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Old 31st March 2020, 18:14     #449
Know me.
 
Ran out of energy on Sunday after the mania of last week. Settling into a routine of working from home for now and making sure I get in a walk a day to keep some semblance of fitness.
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Old 1st April 2020, 16:55     #450
Lightspeed
 
So many people out and about in my neighbourhood. NZ is in for some pain and people are clueless.
__________________
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Old 1st April 2020, 17:36     #451
StN
I have detailed files
 
Just checked my Super balance. Yeah, must think about sticking in for the long haul. Dropped by 12.5% in a month, which I suppose in a good year would be annual earnings, so must think positive.
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Old 1st April 2020, 17:39     #452
Native
I... err - F*ck It.
 
Yeah gotta play the long game if and where you can.

Lightspeed - context? Like public gatherings or just around their houses?
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Old 1st April 2020, 17:44     #453
Nich
 
We’re Going to Need a Bigger Bailout | The Big Conversation
Real Vision Finance
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dMbK_dEwyI
Discussing how the economy may struggle to make a V-shape recovery due to major buyers in the market removed from the upward volume, ie share buybacks stopped, pension funds not buying, real economy shutdown for months, and many companies are now Junk status and can not or will not take a loan in the current conditions.

Keiser Report | Gold: Problems with Exchange for Physical | E1520
https://youtu.be/wPGmut6_TEk
Physical gold is physically not available at any price, and the current economy is a black hole of debt that even the FED's planned infinite money printing will not fill the crater left by COVID-19

Eric Weinstein The Portal - 27: Daniel Schmachtenberger - On Avoiding Apocalypses
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000469758815
Great intro to this podcast about accountability and Triage Deaths which could have been avoided if leaders believed reports that epidemics and pandemics are inevitable and followed the recommended surge capacity recommendations in those reports... then the podcast does a deep dive on cooperative societies, colonizing other planets, and warp drives.

Uncommon Knowledge - The Corona Economy With John B. Taylor
https://www.hoover.org/research/coro...-john-b-taylor
Whether by the virus or by economic shutdown, it is a question of lives lost. The western world is sheltering from the virus, but this action may send many into poverty from which can be just as deadly, and they may never recover.

Future Fossils: 139 - On Coronavirus, Complex Adaptive Systems, & Creative Opportunity
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000468620198
Thoughts on the Coronavirus pandemic from the perspective of complex systems and network collapse—and talk about the possible silver lining we might find in a time of crisis and enforced social isolation.

Last edited by Nich : 1st April 2020 at 17:46.
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Old 1st April 2020, 18:01     #454
Lightspeed
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Native
Lightspeed - context? Like public gatherings or just around their houses?
Suburban streets. Mostly just people out enjoying exercise from what I can tell. There's a park and the beach nearby as well as the dairy which of course is open. About what you'd see on a busier day at the beach, when I'm expecting something like a quiet overcast weekend.
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Last edited by Lightspeed : 1st April 2020 at 18:03.
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Old 1st April 2020, 18:41     #455
blynk
 
The Pros and Cons of the weather at the moment.
Pro - Sunny, so you can walk out of you house, get some fresh air.

Con - The idiots who think they should go to the beach for the day, or who start to push the isolation rules.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 09:56     #456
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
America is so so fucked.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...ulture/609019/
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Old 2nd April 2020, 11:01     #457
Nich
 
Agreed. Virus not contained, biggest case numbers globally, and economy frozen, they set to 10x their deficit from pre-virus (already at 4x)

Oaktree Capital Management memo
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/...ch-way-now.pdf

Quote:
In my simplistic view, I imagine it can print enough checks to replace every American worker’s lost wages and every business’s lost revenues. In other words, it can “simulate” the effect of the economy on incomes. But I have two questions: is that okay, and is it enough

The Treasury can make up for people’s lost wages, but people need the things wages buy. So replacing lost wages and revenues will not be enough for long: the economy has to produce goods and services.

Social isolation, disease and death, economic contraction, enormous reliance on government action, and uncertainty about the long-term effects are all with us, and the main questions surround how far they will go.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 11:31     #458
Nich
 
Also, S&P 500 double top rejection at 2,630 on the "stimulus". Unlikely to try again to get above 2,630 any time soon. If you believe in Fibonacci technical analysis then this current downward wave is going to be epic.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 13:20     #459
Know me.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
Good read. No answers about the dollar and inflation though, just questions.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 13:32     #460
Nich
 
The Big Short’s Michael Burry Explains Why Index Funds Are Like Subprime CDOs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-subprime-cdos
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Old 2nd April 2020, 13:56     #461
Know me.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
The Big Short’s Michael Burry Explains Why Index Funds Are Like Subprime CDOs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-subprime-cdos
Interesting read, A stock picker would say that. Talk of the FED starting to buy ETF like Japan soon.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 14:20     #462
Nich
 
agreed, same way that Vangard would say active financial management is just as bad as gambling. You know on which side certain people will fall, but its helpful to hear them make their case.

All we can do is listen to the smart people on all sides of the argument then make a decision on how best to preserve wealth.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 16:48     #463
crocos
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
All we can do is listen to the smart people on all sides of the argument then make a decision on how best to preserve wealth without sacrificing health.
FTFY
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Old 2nd April 2020, 19:20     #464
Cyberbob
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
active financial management is just as bad as gambling.
It absolutely is. Trust fund babies have an absolute blast shorting stocks and posting big on places like /r/wallstreetbets

Relevant XKCD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich
All we can do is listen to the smart people on all sides of the argument then make a decision on how best to preserve wealth.

The problem is when those in power are quite happy to sacrifice health (your health, never theirs) to preserve wealth.
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Last edited by Cyberbob : 2nd April 2020 at 19:23.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 20:54     #465
Know me.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyberbob




The problem is when those in power are quite happy to sacrifice health (your health, never theirs) to preserve wealth.
NZ is taking a different path.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 22:34     #466
pxpx
 
We're only 8 days in.. don't be so sure.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 00:01     #467
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
I am a bit concerned at how blatantly Labour are following the Michael Joseph Savage "shut down all the media outlets that might criticise the government" playbook.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 10:08     #468
Native
I... err - F*ck It.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
I am a bit concerned at how blatantly Labour are following the Michael Joseph Savage "shut down all the media outlets that might criticise the government" playbook.
Got a link? Social media warriors are hammering anyone with a slightly different thought or suggestion at a different approach from the government.

I like alternative views but really struggle with the narrow minded views of many NZers.

Reminds me a little of the US.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 10:22     #469
StN
I have detailed files
 
Meh - Paper?
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Old 3rd April 2020, 11:05     #470
blynk
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
I am a bit concerned at how blatantly Labour are following the Michael Joseph Savage "shut down all the media outlets that might criticise the government" playbook.
That sounds different to whats being said.
Bauer had been trying to sell for a long time and weren't doing that great. they were offered a lifeline by Govt which they didnt take.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 11:34     #471
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nich

Eric Weinstein The Portal - 27: Daniel Schmachtenberger - On Avoiding Apocalypses
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000469758815
Great intro to this podcast about accountability and Triage Deaths which could have been avoided if leaders believed reports that epidemics and pandemics are inevitable and followed the recommended surge capacity recommendations in those reports
Seconded, the first 15 minutes of this are bang-on. Cheers for the recommendation Jonas.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 11:50     #472
blynk
 
Now I know I am lenient on some of the stupid things the Government does, but this is truly idiotic.

I have no issue about driving 2.3km, thats still local to me. but pretty sure mountain biking is one of the things the government would rather people not do.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...virus-lockdown
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Old 3rd April 2020, 12:23     #473
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
What a fucking muppet. Just a reminder that in spite of Saint Jacinda's empathic FB Live videos, Labour still gonna Labour.

This is the Minister of Health. What the fuck is he doing mountain biking in the South Island? Why the fuck is he not at work?
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Old 3rd April 2020, 13:54     #474
StN
I have detailed files
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
What a fucking muppet. Just a reminder that in spite of Saint Jacinda's empathic FB Live videos, Labour still gonna Labour.

This is the Minister of Health. What the fuck is he doing mountain biking in the South Island? Why the fuck is he not at work?
Also - he drove 2kms to have a 6km bike ride?
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Old 3rd April 2020, 14:55     #475
Native
I... err - F*ck It.
 
In his big sign posted van even!

The worst thing is how he tried to defend himself. Jacinda (who I don't like politically, but who is making some great calls in a fucked up time) should have his balls on the chopping board and publically hammer them.

Such a fucking disgrace.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 16:15     #476
Lightspeed
 
1200 deaths in the US yesterday. When do they hit 10k in one day?

At this point given both the virus and the US response to it, seeing people collapsing in the street doesn't seem unreasonable.
__________________
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Old 3rd April 2020, 16:24     #477
fixed_truth
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by blynk
I have no issue about driving 2.3km, thats still local to me. but pretty sure mountain biking is one of the things the government would rather people not do.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...virus-lockdown
It's all about context. The track looks isolated & also it's terrain and elevation make it low risk for injury. If it was Joe blogs then it wouldn't have been noticed. It would've been someone between work meetings driving to a nearby track to do some exercise.

I think the facepalm thing is that he didn't anticipate how it would look because of his position as health minister. There's a group of people who need to be told what they should & shouldn't be doing and they're gonna see this as him just doing what he wants so why shouldn't they.

Also he obviously took the work vehicle to fit his bike in but ffs
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Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 16:45     #478
Nich
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightspeed
1200 deaths in the US yesterday. When do they hit 10k in one day?
by 2nd to 3rd week of April... just in time for everyone to return to work!

The virus is simply out of control in the US. I reckon no one believed a city like New York could 10x in the space of a week. And now we're getting some horrific stories of people choosing to work instead of looking after their spouse with high fever, then returning home to find them dead.

Also banks tasks with distributing the "stimulus" to individuals are squabbling over the loan terms. And small business representatives are squabbling over the design of the App to apply for the small business stimulus. This just in time economy is about to ask all small businesses to wait while all these associations + treasury come to an agreement on how to distribute the stimulus.

Now we're getting some blame game going on to manufacture consent for war with China. ie mainstream news is reporting on the "coincidence" that a level 4 biolab was also in Wuhan, and how China lied to the world and lulled US officials into a false sense of security regarding the virus. come on! Individuals with a few twitter followers were able to see what was coming better than the CDC, NSA, and CIA combined? bull shit.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 16:52     #479
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by fixed_truth
It's all about context. The track looks isolated & also it's terrain and elevation make it low risk for injury. If it was Joe blogs then it wouldn't have been noticed. It would've been someone between work meetings driving to a nearby track to do some exercise.

I think the facepalm thing is that he didn't anticipate how it would look because of his position as health minister. There's a group of people who need to be told what they should & shouldn't be doing and they're gonna see this as him just doing what he wants so why shouldn't they.

Also he obviously took the work vehicle to fit his bike in but ffs
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ab
This is the Minister of Health. What the fuck is he doing mountain biking in the South Island? Why the fuck is he not at work?


Compare and contrast: during the 2009 Swine Flu, Minister of Health Tony Ryall (MP for Bay of Plenty) gave two press briefings a day from Wellington with situation updates.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 17:01     #480
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Farmer Joe
How does one buy barrels of oil?
If you managed to do so before the greatest price spike in history this morning, nice work.
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