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31st October 2016, 14:33 | #521 |
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The run up to the election feels like how it might feel losing traction while driving and all you can do is wonder if you'll plunge off the cliff or slam into the bank. You know you're fucked, it's a question of how fucked.
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Stay shook. No sook. |
31st October 2016, 15:22 | #522 | |
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31st October 2016, 15:54 | #523 |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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Because it's nothing. But for some reason it's all the US media appears to be focused on.
Trump: under investigation for everything from fraud to child rape, refuses to release tax returns, is probably receiving blackhat campaign assistance from the Russian government, is embezzling from his own campaign Clinton: used a standalone email server for correspondence WELL HOLY FUCK THEY'RE BOTH JUST AS BAD AS EACH OTHER |
31st October 2016, 17:28 | #524 | |
Stunt Pants
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I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner? |
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1st November 2016, 13:06 | #525 |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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Well how would you describe it?
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1st November 2016, 14:43 | #526 |
Stunt Pants
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As I understand it, she was handling classified emails on it and it wasn't properly secured. It wasn't just a private setup so that she could easily swap recipes with her friends and look at pictures of the grandkids.
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I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner? |
1st November 2016, 14:56 | #527 |
Raptus regaliter
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Red October.
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1st November 2016, 17:24 | #528 | |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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Quote:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...il-server.html |
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2nd November 2016, 16:18 | #529 |
HENCE WHY FOREVER ALONE
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Finger rolling rhythm, ride the horse one hand... |
2nd November 2016, 16:44 | #530 | |
HENCE WHY FOREVER ALONE
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Finger rolling rhythm, ride the horse one hand... |
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2nd November 2016, 17:33 | #531 | |
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2nd November 2016, 17:48 | #532 |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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2nd November 2016, 18:02 | #533 |
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Noted, while reading other waffle around here.
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4th November 2016, 08:12 | #534 |
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Could be a handy endorsement . . . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7I4Fkiu2nak
Also makes me thankful for MMP here
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Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong. |
5th November 2016, 08:22 | #535 |
HENCE WHY FOREVER ALONE
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And of course the terror attack announcement, right on time...
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Finger rolling rhythm, ride the horse one hand... |
5th November 2016, 17:28 | #536 |
Stunt Pants
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It's just a few days out from the election and it's interesting to see where fivethirtyeight has the candidates in their forecast. Clinton has been sliding since her high of the 3rd debate but her likelihood of winning is still at 64.5% (polls-plus forecast). That's not to say she's a dead cert, as one may have been tempted to say when she was at 85.3%, but 64.5 ain't bad when you look at the forecast for the electoral votes. I don't see much changing for her forecast-wise in the next few days. But what could count against her, as Nate Silver puts it, is "there are far more undecided and third-party voters this year, which could lead to a last-minute swing, or a polling error, and makes the model more cautious." Polls only go so far and they can't predict what might happen on the day where undecideds are concerned. Fivethirtyeight's forecast also doesn't include early voting. Trump still has a sniff of winning. Clinton may lose some crucial states when the undecideds make up their mind in the polling booth. Trump has more must-win states than Clinton does. But my feeling is that she'll get more electoral votes on the day despite the popular vote being less than 3 points separated. Clinton will win, Trump will claim it's rigged and there will be some angry rallies as the right wingers shed tears of rage and disbelief in much the same way they did when Obama first won. What will be interesting is how close fivethirtyeight's forecast ends up being against the results, on a state-by-state basis. Nate Silver correctly picked 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and all 50 states plus DC in 2012. And then there's the Senate.
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I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner? |
6th November 2016, 12:15 | #537 | |
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The best scenario for the GOP will be hoping Trump fucks off so all they'll have to do in 2020 is stand someone who's not widely disliked.
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Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong. |
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6th November 2016, 13:15 | #538 |
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I think the email thing is overblown except for one thing. those emails on her private server wouldn't have turned up under the request for information act stuff, if they weren't leaked. I don't really think that's ok. but otherwise, meh.
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7th November 2016, 10:11 | #539 |
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I don't get the (seemingly) high proportion of African Americans who aren't voting because they don't like either Trump or Clinton. It's not just that they're risking the worst candidate sneaking through; I would think that in the context of fairly recent American history they wouldn't want other people making their choices for them??
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Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong. |
8th November 2016, 01:10 | #540 |
Stunt Pants
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Small bump for Clinton.
Required reading: Election Update: The Campaign Is Almost Over, And Here’s Where We Stand States to watch: Florida, North Carolina.
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I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner? |
8th November 2016, 12:03 | #541 | |
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ɹǝʌo sᴉ ǝɯɐƃ ʎɥʇ |
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8th November 2016, 14:33 | #542 | |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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8th November 2016, 15:23 | #543 | |
Stunt Pants
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2016’s Election Data Hero Isn’t Nate Silver. It’s Sam Wang
It's a long article so I've just skimmed over it, but the difference is that Wang seems to be saying that he's accounted for uncertainty in his modelling. Quote:
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I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner? |
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8th November 2016, 16:32 | #544 |
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I hope all these statistics geeks are right!
Donald Trump Has No Path to Winning Presidential Election
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Protecting your peace is way more important than proving your point. Some people aren't open to cultivating their views. Just let them be wrong. |
8th November 2016, 17:53 | #545 |
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9th November 2016, 11:33 | #546 |
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https://news.vice.com/story/live-ele...ith-votecastry
Votecastr info on Vice seems to show it going easy for Clinton so far. |
9th November 2016, 11:42 | #547 |
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whats a good site to watch it unfold. I assume one of the main news sites.
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9th November 2016, 12:19 | #548 |
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The snark on the guardian live blog has been running pretty strong all election.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...n-results-live Cash bar at the trump victory party.. Last edited by Deadmeat : 9th November 2016 at 12:20. |
9th November 2016, 12:52 | #549 |
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some other links
bbc live blog http://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-us-2016-37899679 nbc live feed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deh3phE97ok abc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TTiDlK4vS8 pbs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lL-gicgoCAY aljazera https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YnlX4CkPDY (watching on freeview theyve come out with a lot of interesting stuff) |
9th November 2016, 12:59 | #550 |
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cnn results: http://us.cnn.com/election/results
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9th November 2016, 13:14 | #551 |
Stunt Pants
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Politico seems to update as results come in, state by state.
Decision Desk HQ And of course fivethirtyeight 538 seems to have picked Clinton will edge out Trump in Florida. If so, election over - Clinton wins. 538 final forecast. Clinton 302 - Trump 235. That's all you need to know, folks. You can go back to fucking your hand or playing LoL or whatever you kids do.
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I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner? |
9th November 2016, 13:21 | #552 | |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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9th November 2016, 13:43 | #553 |
Stunt Pants
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Can't say I've done the maths but yes, I believe that would keep him in. But I basically defer to 538 on election matters because Silver is my golden god. He looks to have forecast both FL and NC for Clinton, so without doing any maths, I reckon that would give Clinton the race.
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I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner? |
9th November 2016, 13:55 | #554 |
Stunt Pants
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CNN has an interesting interactive electoral map. Hit begin, then 2016 (I can't link directly).
They've tallied the states they think Clinton and Trump will each win, then the battleground states. If you give ALL the batteground states to Trump, he gets 270. If you give Clinton any single one of those (except Nebraska) she wins. That's just CNN's numbers, but interesting all the same as it illustrates how difficult it would be for Trump to win.
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I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner? |
9th November 2016, 14:04 | #555 | |
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9th November 2016, 14:21 | #556 |
Stunt Pants
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Dump trucks filled with sand acting as barricade outside both Trump and Clinton locations, to protect against explosive attacks. NYPD forming perimeter security. Holy shit. America is nuts. People thought Obama giving inauguration speech from behind bullet proof glass was crazy. Where is Clinton giving hers from? Air Force One circling over an undisclosed location? Flying dump trucks as escorts?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11744907
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I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner? |
9th November 2016, 14:35 | #557 |
A mariachi ogre snorkel
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I just got off the phone with a good friend in the USA, older white upper-middle-class dude whose opinion I trust in just about everything, and he's fucking scared. Not just that Trump might win but that America is going to lose it's fucking mind no matter who wins. Like, armed insurrection crazy.
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9th November 2016, 15:08 | #558 |
Stunt Pants
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There's a lot of people in the US who say shit like "Ah'm gurna pick up mah guns if [Obama, Clinton, etc] wins. So far it hasn't happened. But I wonder what the boiling point is? Will they reach it post election? Or will it continue to be tough talk by people who don't have the stones to carry out their threats?
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I just want to understand this, sir. Every time a rug is micturated upon in this fair city, I have to compensate the owner? |
9th November 2016, 15:10 | #559 |
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From the coverage i've seen I would have thought the Tea Party was a stronger/more united sect than the (seemingly) more isolated/individual Trump crazies.
Oh shit i still had time to edit! Last edited by Deadmeat : 9th November 2016 at 15:15. |
9th November 2016, 15:14 | #560 |
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16,000 vote difference in Florida atm >_<
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