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Originally Posted by Nich
The goal is to "flatten the curve" and stop hospitals from exceeding capacity. We surely all remember the videos out of Wuhan, then Iran, then Italy showing hospitals packed shoulder to shoulder, and morgues running out of storage space. These videos were evidence enough that something needed to be done to avoid the same fate as these countries.
In that context, knowing as little as we knew then, lock downs were very sensible. But it's a big experiment because we have no evidence that we can bring the R0 to below 1 through these measures. and we have no evidence that we can't either ("Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" - Taleb)
The polite thing to do is for us to all to attempt social distancing, mask wearing and measure the results:
- If it succeeds we can all clap eachother on the back and say "job well done!"
- If it fails we should quickly recognise it has failed and stop pretending we can get stricter and stricter until it actually starts working
By drawing out our first wave (yes, IMO we're not in the second wave yet), we risk turning COVID-19 into a rolling epidemic that is given time to mutate and maintain its intensity.
But as we linger in this waiting place waiting for COVID-19 cases to spike or drop away, more opportunists are getting into position and may benefit from an extended lockdown period:
- Big pharma needs the fear to be maintained long enough for them to bring vaccine products to market
- Big Tech needs the fear to be maintained so they can sell contact tracing and surveillance products
- Politicians always love a good crisis to push through their Patriot Act-level reforms
- And other "Pro Freedom" people are coming out of the woodwork... mostly harmless noise makers for now. Until suicides exceed COVID-19 deaths, then they have a point.
As an aside -- If any "Pro Freedom" libertarians get up in your face about the lock downs / mask wearing, remind them of their non-aggression principle. Knowingly or unknowingly infecting even one other person is to harm that person.
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Will less people die if the govt locks down the economy again? My 2c says it won't. I think it's just delaying the inevitable and as a result it's psychologically fucking with people, as well as expediting the ruin of the economy.
The virus has a long incubation period and is easily transferable from one to another and i don't see how any quarantine can be effective.