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Originally Posted by Nich
I sold a portion at the utmost perfect peak (AUD $2,000) to pay my tax. A week later it was $1,200 and I seriously considered buying the dip... The lower it gets, the more I want to buy back in.
I have followed Crypto Sniper since June last year. He has been spot on for the July and September sell offs. I didnt trade based on his advise, but his analysis is very good. He was saying we should expect Bitcoin to trade in $7,000's USD back when it was around $11,000. So far all true and there has been a lot of "bed wetting" as he calls it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFsPpRevyag
But sometimes you just have to look within: when you're feeling super optimistic about your investment it's a peak, when you're feeling super pessimistic it's probably the end of the capitulation. |
Cheers will check it out. The engineer in me wants to like TA, but if I think about it objectively I can't see how it works.
I do think it can do the following though:
- Predict the effect emotion has on investments in the short term.
- Convince enough people that TA works, so it becomes self fulfilling as long as everyone agrees on the same rule set.
Given recent studies have shown that major crypto swings are triggered by news primarily, any positions setup by even the most ideal TA will eventually fail spectacularly. I guess it just has to work 51% of the time or greater though
Or people just get lucky and happen to avoid some of the big swings.
Interested to hear any success people have been having in the long term though.
Anecdotally I've seen all sorts of TA in BTC chat rooms. Some people def seem to get it spot on, but others not so much. I'm not sure if its because some people are better at it, or if its that 50% of people are right 50% of the time.