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Originally Posted by xor
Will less people die if the govt locks down the economy again? My 2c says it won't.
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Yep, agreed.
We'll get the same number of people infected regardless, but not necessarily the same number of deaths if we do succeed in flattening the curve. With time comes better treatment and therapy, so in that sense it is better to delay the inevitable infections so health workers can treat people correctly (ie not intubate everybody who presents with low blood/oxygen).
Then there's the economic cost of delaying the spread, and deaths from despair.
We'll never be able to verify and make an evidence-based case comparing suicide by lockdown to death by COVID unless media starts actually reporting on it:
Journalists must overcome their reticence to report on suicide – now more than ever
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...more-than-ever
and we do know that there is an effort to improve suicide prevention programs anticipating increased influx of cases:
National suicide register needed soon to manage increased risk from coronavirus
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-...surge/12208668
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Imagine trying to eliminate COVID-19 without knowing how many cases there are in Australia.
Many mental health advocates and non-profit organisations say that's the situation they're currently in, as they try to reduce suicide rates while relying on old figures.
But one of the nation's pre-eminent mental health advocates, Professor Pat McGorry, said it was difficult to try to reduce the death rate, because suicide statistics come with a lag time of up to two years.
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So, we get daily COVID death rate, we get monthly unemployment numbers, we can track small business bankruptcy rates, and we know that suicide prevention efforts are being increased in response to something. Add to that that middle class are more in debt than any time in history, and social isolation amplifies despair. The conditions are perfect for lockdowns to cause more harm than the good of slowing the virus.
edit: from an Australian perspective, where eradicating the virus is not possible. New Zealand appears to have a chance to be completely free COVID.