Quote:
Originally posted by Lightspeed
So we'll assume weather does have an influence, but controller for other factors we could find out to what degree that influence is.
Or maybe I just missed your point completely.
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I have heard that the impact of bad weather is quite severe in keeping lower socio-economic groups from voting. I can imagine a very tenable physical process explaining this and so I'm inclined to allow opinion (or is this judgement) to guide me.
I'm very sympathetic to your view on the need to remove confounding effects. With three yearly sample points and a rapidly changing world I don't think it would be possible to measure the real impact of anything that dosen't fall into the "obvious" category.
I'm particularly unimpressed with the view that the polls are taking on voter swing occuring; for my part, I expect it's inept survey taking that's the issue. I think the margin-of-error they quote are clearly wrong - the assumptions made in those calcualtion are very obviously invalid. Given they (the poll takers) don't realise this I think there is no chance that they have conducted their polls correctly.
I expect Labour will win. I am already feeling sorry for the inevitable suffering for poorer families three years hence (who will lose income but not the new debt they are supporting).
I'm glad ACT is gone. Who the fuck did they represent?
Sadly, the radical Greens will get in based on the colour of their logo.
The maori party deserve to get it - they represent their electorate very well; I loath their racist point of view though.