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National's in a tough spot here. There's a possibility that it could win an outright majority and govern alone, but that's a hell of a gamble. It's conceivable that National could win the most votes but Labour, Green, Mana, and United Future combined could have a greater total and patch together a coalition.
National has to get 60+ seats to govern alone and on current polling it would get 66, but anything can happen in politics. If Banks wins in Epsom and gets another ACT MP on party vote, and Sharples wins Tamaki Makaurau and gets another 2 Maori MPs on party vote, National + ACT + Maori is more likely. But will Banks win Epsom? The National faithful will probably vote for whomever Key tells them to, and a win for Banks gets the centre-right TWO more seats while a win for the National candidate only gains them one more seat.
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