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Originally Posted by Nich
It is also a bias to say it would have been much worse if we closed the borders then let it burn through. And that hospitals would collapse. We don't know if that would have happened, but that is the shared fear we keep alive.
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I don't agree with that statement. It was pretty damn well covered in early 2020, the whole 'flatten the curve' rhetoric, and it's clear as day in countries that didn't lock down.
NZ has 180 ICU beds nation wide. You don't need to be a statistical genius to understand what happens if you let it burn through and exceed that number of critically ill hospitalised cases. Never mind all the non-covid requirements for ICU beds.
We'll never know the mental health impacts of a shortened or extended lockdown, and I'm sure it'll be gamed to hell in future 'what if' planning scenarios, but we absolutely know the healthcare sector impact of not doing it.