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Originally Posted by Nich
I agree with everything you're saying. It wouldn't be a control, but rather a contributing factor. In "peace-time" there was plenty of rhetoric about how important mental health is. Public health threw that all out the window. No comity, just tribe 1 vs tribe 2.
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But it is a plausible alternative hypothesis for a change in dynamics you are showing in the data matching the timelines you are using as correlates for the cause.
So you can't use those graphs as any kind of evidence. You can't even go for likelihood given lack of alternative explanations - because there are.
It's just correlation rather than causation.