Thread: nCoV 2019
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Old 11th February 2020, 13:20     #1
Nich
 
nCoV 2019

Sit back, don't panic. Certainly don't stockpile any food or medical supplies. Enjoy the show as we look out for your best interests:

- A vaccine is 3-months away and Aussie scientists sequenced the genome! Aussie Aussie Aussie!
- We've detected all infected Australians, and they are on Christmas Island where they can't infect you!
- It's China's problem, let's rubberneck and watch the timelapse of a new Quaran^H^H^H^H^H Hospital being built in a week!
- OK, it's killed more people than SARS, but the seasonal flu kills more!
- Look over here, TSLA and AMZN kicking ass on the stock market!
- Consumer confidence is high, yep. Keep buying shit and taking out loans... but don't you dare buy stockpile food and medical supplies you paranoid prepper!


Body Count | Epsilon Theory
https://www.epsilontheory.com/body-count/
The battle against nCoV 2019 is merely a narrative control (akin to the US narrative control of the Vietnam War) opportunity for governments and WHO to demonstrate how necessary they are in overcoming threats to national security, ensuring our safety and well being.

Reddit r/dataisbeautiful predicts WHO (aka China) "official numbers" as it follows quadratic model perfectly:
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeaut..._growth_model/

Quote:
For anyone interested, here is a comparison to the official numbers (parenthesis are the predicted numbers):

05/02/2020 24553 (23435) cases 492 (489) fatalities

06/02/2020 28278 (26885) cases 565 (561) fatalities

07/02/2020 31349 (30576) cases 638 (639) fatalities

08/02/2020 34876 (34506) cases 724 (721) fatalities

09/02/2020 37552 (38675) cases 813 (808) fatalities

10/02/2020 40553 (43084) cases 910 (900) fatalities

11/02/2020 ? (47733) cases ? (997) fatalities

12/02/2020 ? (52621) cases ? (1099) fatalities

13/02/2020 ? (57749) cases ? (1206) fatalities

14/02/2020 ? (63116) cases ? (1319) fatalities

15/02/2020 ? (68723) cases ? (1436) fatalities

16/02/2020 ? (74570) cases ? (1558) fatalities

17/02/2020 ? (80656) cases ? (1685) fatalities

18/02/2020 ? (86982) cases ? (1817) fatalities

19/02/2020 ? (93548) cases ? (1955) fatalities

20/02/2020 ? (100353) cases ? (2097) fatalities

in short, the official numbers are bullshit. But for how long can they keep the lid on this? Will every government follow China's lead and low-ball their nation's number of infected in some sort of global pissing contest?

Here's the John's Hopkins map of nCoV 2019, but it takes it's data from WHO (aka China). Still, it's entertaining like a video game, i guess:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

The narrative appears to be to goalseek towards the data that proves the outbreak has come under control. So the quadratic model shows us the trend, but the numbers are bullshit so the reported numbers can easily just come in lower than the model each day. Then the news can report that the actions of WHO and governments has worked.

However, WHO reports R0 2 so the infection rate should be exponential.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...spread/605632/
(interesting, this article says it was "Updated February 14, 2020, at 10:35 a.m." ... in the future)

China confirms nCoV spreads by aerosolisation. R0 is probably higher than 2:
Dr John Campbell https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HCRmTHCUao
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...144f4cbbc4d807
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/2020...217275fc3.html
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