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Old 28th February 2022, 19:02     #49
Ab
A mariachi ogre snorkel
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajax
The endgame here seems to be mostly grim possibilities.

If Russia wins, Ukraine ceases to be an independent nation. States bordering Ukraine might then be threatened.

If the Russian leadership perceives themselves to be losing, they may start to escalate. A loss of face would be intolerable for Putin at this late stage, since it could result in regime change.

The stages of Russian weapons escalation could go something like this:

1. Thermobaric weapons
2. Carpet bombing of cities
3. Chemical weapons
4. Low-yield tactical nuclear weapons
5. Strategic nuclear weapons

Perhaps the best thing that could happen is that Putin is assassinated or removed in a palace coup.
Agreed to all the above, with two additions: every other former Soviet republic will be on the "you're next" list, and given that Estonia is now a member of NATO that could be awkward; and any independent European nation that isn't a NATO member but might be considering it will go on the "you're next" list too. Including Sweden and Finland.

Russia seems to have no air cover to speak of and it's a logistics clusterfuck, with no food, water, or fuel. When hungry Russian soldiers start putting down their weapons and walking away, and Putin actually hears about it, shit might get real ugly.
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