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Old 7th March 2022, 15:29     #110
_indigo1
 
TBH the sanctions, whilst mildly effective, were expected and easily manageable in the short term given the war-chest Putin has built up for exactly this reason - slowly migrating Russia away from dependence on the world economy over the last decade - ensuring Russians don't starve once Russia is isolated by migrating from a net wheat importer to a net exporter, etc etc.

Russia's economy hasn't been in growth for years, for this exact reason - fortifying independence - which has cost them growth and innovation.

This has been a long game for Putin. These sanctions, whilst awesome to see given the unity they have brought the west, are mostly symbolic and a talking piece so that nations can say they did something in response, as opposed to anything that is actually going to change anything in next six months of war.

SWIFT in particular is the 'big gun' talking point at the moment; but the reality it's not the economic nuke that they are making it out to be.
SPFS is compatible from a standards point of view and it's very easy to get countries/banks onboarded who were not before. It will not be difficult for Russia to build networks with countries who have not shut it out.
Same with CIPS.

All of these stop short of what is really needed to have a real impact in terms of actual response - targeting the Russia energy sector as well as passing legislation on long term sanctions that are ratified to stay in place 10/20 years.
Beyond that, Putin knows that if he is able to take Ukraine; within a relatively short space of time the west will realise that sanctions are pointless and they will slowly be loosened in favour of easing the global economy - given Russia is such a major producer of many commodities let alone food, and democracy and politicians focus on short term wins.

So yeah worrying that NZ has not brought into what I would class as the wests version of propaganda (harsh word but just go with it) in that they have 'responded' is kind of missing the point I think.

I'd rather see us take the lead with something more impactful instead of following the global template, if even only symbolic given our lack of girth on the global stage.

Last edited by _indigo1 : 7th March 2022 at 15:34.
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