More random data, but more relevant to our local economies - currently
NZ has a totally inverted yield curve: the 2 year interest rate is higher than the 10 year interest rate. (Investors believe that the interest rates will come down). This is usually a good indicator/predictor of a recession.
Australia's is
partially inverted at the moment (5Y vs 2Y and 2Y vs 1Y), so if we only looked at that one single indicator it puts Australia in a slightly stronger position. If anyone needed convincing.
For anyone with a mortgage who's thinking about how long to fix for, the "rule of thumb" for interest rates is to look at the bond yield and add 2% or so (depending on the bank). In NZ, to me it looks like a 3 year fix is the sensible decision if you're not much of a risk taker - those are the best rates also. You could do a 2Y fix if you think interest rates will come down significantly, but if we assume interest rates need to be higher than inflation to be sensible, I'm not sure this is likely. That would require inflation to get back to ~2% in 2 years and/or interest rates back to weird again. If we're serious about getting housing affordable (the most significant source of inflation that we gloss over while talking about eggs and cauliflower going up a few dollars), it'll be a slow grind down to avoid chaos.
But I'm not a financial adviser, and this is not investment or financial advice, it's just what I'll be suggesting my sister does. Whether she listens or not is up to her.