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I’m guessing the Russian playbook will be something like this:
1. Conducting sham referenda in Luhansk and Donetsk to show their populations want to rejoin Russia, then declaring the territories to be Russian federal subjects
2. Declaration of war against Ukraine (as opposed to a limited special operation) in response to the purported Ukrainian invasion threat to the new ‘Russian’ territories
3. Announcing mobilisation and conscription to support the war (Russia’s conscripts cannot be deployed abroad unless the country is on a war footing).
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