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Originally Posted by The Edge
Can you provide some evidence (I mean, actual evidence, not propaganda) to back up what you're saying, please? I'm not seeing what you're saying is happening here.
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Sure thing. I'll try to keep things pre-2020 because research is probably a little difficult during the pandemic chaos.
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Some studies:
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September 2019 - WHO released this report:
Non-pharmaceutical public health measures for mitigating the risk and impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza
https://www.who.int/publications/i/i...emic-influenza
On each of the categories public health loves in the pandemic:
- Face masks: Recommended for symptomatic people, but no evidence it stops transmission
- Social isolation: Recommended for symptomatic people, 5-7 days
- Surveillance: only useful early on to better understand virus / disease, attempt containment
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CDC issued this meta-analysis out of Hong Kong. The project ran from 2018 to Feb 2020.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article
Comparing hand hygiene, face masks, cough/sneezing etiquette, surface / environment cleaning. They found hand hygiene to provide the greatest risk reduction. All other measures were useless.
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Donald Henderson (eradicated Small Pox) was co-author of a 2006 paper on Disease Mitigation Measures in the Control
of Pandemic Influenza.
https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdo...=rep1&type=pdf
Basically they recommend the following:
- Invest in hospital surge capacity
- Regular communication with public (those who are ill stay home, but encourage others to go about their lives)
- Don't close schools for longer than 2 weeks unless you're going to close all other hangouts (malls, fast-food, recreation centres). But if you do that be prepared for serious adverse social and economic effects.
- wash your hands
- Don't cancel meetings / events unless you're going to cancel all possible ways people can meet. Communitywide closure is inadvisable.
- Don't quarantine groups or individuals lest you want public loss of trust in government, and stigmatization of quarantined people
- Don't surveil or screen people.
and finally this
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An overriding principle. Experience has shown that communities faced with epidemics or other adverse events respond best and with the least anxiety when the normal social functioning of the community is least dis-rupted. Strong political and public health leadership to provide reassurance and to ensure that needed medical care services are provided are critical elements. If either is seen to be less than optimal, a manageable epidemic could move toward catastrophe.
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And if you want more studies, here's over 400 studies during 2020 - 2021 looking at how the NPIs are going...
https://brownstone.org/articles/more...interventions/
A complete failure.
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One of the biggest proponents of the NPIs and lockdowns has been Neil Ferguson (advisor to europe and UK). Not a single one of his models have been remotely close to reality. the deaths and cases are always overblown with the threat that NPIs must be enacted immediately to avoid this projected calamaty. In countries where they do follow his advice, he can claim the measures worked because the deaths and cases were a fraction of what he predicted if virus was let free.
Take Sweden, for example. When the pandemic started in Europe, in April Neil Ferguson's model predicted 15,000 to 105,000 deaths by 1st May. Then on 4th May Sweden had 2679 COVID deaths.
https://hectordrummond.com/2020/05/0...elessly-wrong/
Fast forward to today. Neil Ferguson is at it again and predicts 5,000 deaths from Omicron PER DAY. Fuck this guy, and anyone who continues to pump out these hopeless models that make everyone fearful of scenarios that don't pan out.
He's also responsible for the "don't kill granny", and "even young people are at risk of COVID." campaigns. Fuck this guy.